Camp Day 9 | Page 32 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Camp Day 9

AZStryker said:
Fair enough, but what was there accuracy/success rate last year? I’m guessing 56 to 60%
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We opened up 5 last year. That got killed and it was pushed all the way to 6 which is a very big move. So the line movement was correct on us last year since it went over.

I'm not saying Vegas is correct all the time but I value their opinion more than any talking head on ESPN or any other sports outlet. Right now they say we are the worst team in football based off win totals. I'm not sure we are the worst but I can see it winding up that way. Injuries being the main catalyst one way or the other.
 
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Rowdy1972 said:
UNDER 5 wins. So they think we win between 0-4 games. That's what the line movement from 5 to 4.5 tells you. this doesn't mean we will be the worst team but it gives you an idea where smart money think this team is headed.
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Moving odds have zero to do with how "smart" the betters are. It is simply a refection of how much is being wagered on each side of the line. It isn't a reflection on what the books actually believe. It is done to gaurantee the books profit.

Not arguing the Phins w/l record here, just pointing out how lines move.
 
Mach2 said:
Moving odds have zero to do with how "smart" the betters are. It is simply a refection of how much is being wagered on each side of the line. It isn't a reflection on what the books actually believe. It is done to gaurantee the books profit.

Not arguing the Phins w/l record here, just pointing out how lines move.
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The general public seldom moves lines. "Smart money" aka professional bettors usually do the moving of the line. The line movement from 5 to 4.5 means that some smart money hit the under. The books cant get the money 50/50 on every line. Its virtually impossible. Thats a myth in vegas. money is never even. Vegas has a rooting interest in almost every line.
 
Rowdy1972 said:
The general public seldom moves lines. "Smart money" aka professional bettors usually do the moving of the line. The line movement from 5 to 4.5 means that some smart money hit the under. The books cant get the money 50/50 on every line. Its virtually impossible. Thats a myth in vegas. money is never even. Vegas has a rooting interest in almost every line.
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50/50 no, but it isn't generally far off, and yes big money betters drive it, as opposed to the average fan's $100 dollar bet.

That doesn't alter the fact that the line moves to ensure the books profitability.

As far as "smart" money, there is not much difference in total dollars lost, and total dollars won. If there were, a book wouldn't be in business long. The only smart money is the book themselves.

There are professional sport gamblers that make a living at it, but they are few, and far between.
 
Danny said:
There is no such thing as over achieve. If a person/player/team achieves something then that means they could achieve it or else, they wouldn't have. Now I can see a person/player/team doing better than some people expected but who's anybody to say that a person/player/team can't do better than what anybody thinks?

At the end of the day when you do something it means you could do it.
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Disagree . . . A little. Anyone who's played sports has had a game where they played above talent. A game where everything goes right. 8 overachieving games in a season? 16 out of 16? Can a team overachieved 5 out of 16? I think not
 
marino13zach54 said:
Passion can overide intelligence. And it may very well be that those whom are overly enthusiastic are smarter than the rest. After all, they are spending this time with joy in their hearts rather than trepidation. I'm all about keeping an even keel.

What I fail to understand is how passionate and intelligent fans alike don't see that the way they operated this offseason estimates a long road, that the moves they made is set up for future success and not remotely a 1 year turnaround. How is that not clear? No big signings. Stockpiling picks. A 5 year contract. All the signs point to this might take a few years.

I've seen even intelligent posters write that a good coach doesn't get you a 2-14 season. I can't, won't agree with that.

Measuring this new regime by wins in its first year is, to me, absolutely ridiculous. But we will have an instant idea of what we are in for when we see the play and playcalling regardless of whether said play and play calling produce victories.
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I can agree with all that. No one can say what fans will 'get' in '19. That's my problem. Intelligent people tend to cluster where they should - in the middle. That 'unknown' area. Will Rosen be the guy? Is Flo real? Will coaching make a difference? Which players will surprise (fans know some will). All those and a hundred others are 'unknown.' Yet, some are making posts with absolutes. Miami WILL win 2. Or 10. The OL WILL be league worst. Rosen IS a bust. The Flo scheme WILL result in more sacks.

No pandering intended, but, your comments . . . "MIGHT take a few years [emphasis mine]" . . . "when we see the play and playcalling regardless of whether said play and play calling produce victories." You know, admitting to the 'unknowns.' Personally, I think *IF* Flo is the real deal, the coaching will produce 2-4 surprise wins. But, I admit, that's an IF. I do ABSOLUTELY expect good surprises. No idea who they will be, but thy'll be there. That's as 'absolute' as I'm gonna get. Again, fans can be encouraged by what they see and still see the reality of the season.
 
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