For those of you that want to blow it up and rebuild, can they? My conclusion, I think the bed is made and not much can change the next few years. So strap yourself in, and hope that what we have starts looking better. Also strap yourself, because this post is not short. If have time, please read and I am curious what others think about the trade-ability and value of the contracts listed below.
Rebuilding means that in addition to the front office changing, the roster needs to be turned over and rebuilt as well. There is a real problem now because of the contracts they handed out. It is unclear to me if they can trade these guys, get out from under these commitments, acquire meaningful draft capital, and start rebuilding.
The test of some of these contracts is if the player can be traded, and value can be received in return. If so, the contract is decent to good. If not, it is a bad contract.
For example, Davante Adams is not as good as Tyreek. But he had value in the trade market because his contract is up after this year, and he has been mostly paid out already, so the Jets are on the hook for almost nothing in terms of salary. Amari Cooper, not much different. $800K cap hit this year, no obligation left to him after this year.
The guys on the Dolphins roster, that they would have to deal off, I am not sure if they are even tradable because of the money and term left relative to their age, skill set, or injury issues. Term would be a good thing if there was value to the contract, but I think in nearly every case, you can argue these guys are overpaid.
Basically, I am worried that there are no Tunsil like deals to be had, or anything close to that, for anyone on the roster because the contracts we gave our really good players are prohibitive and take a lot of the value out of a potential deal.
There is no point in trading them unless you can get first and second rounders, like we did with Tunsil. Otherwise all you are doing is dumping salary, and putting more money in the owners back pocket, for lower round draft picks that don't have much value and are not enough to form the nucleus of a team. For example, even though I don’t think Ramsey is worth the $25mm, I do think he is much better than the $6mm a year guy they might sign to replace him. If you traded Ramsey for a 4th rounder, despite the extra cap space, you probably make yourself worse. Or you have extra money they turn around to use and overpay another free agent, and are back in the same spot, or maybe not if you get it wrong on the new guy.
Then the problem also becomes if it is hard to get out from under this stuff, what good GM is going to want to take the job knowing there might be nothing they can do for the next few years until these contracts burn off? It is pointless to let Grier do the rebuild too, so obviously you have to believe Ross would finally fire him, after letting Grier handle this stuff at the deadline (unless you believe some of these guys would be worth more in the offseason and a theoretical new GM could make the decisions). The Grier issue adds another layer of complexity – you do not want to have him leading another rebuild.
Here is a list of guys that the Dolphins would have to deal to try and rebuild. You tell me if you could get first or second rounders for these guys given their contracts, or if in fact the Dolphins were able to move them, they would have to eat money to actually do it and still not get much in return:
Tua – 4 years $212 mm, can get out in 2027, but would still have a $38mm dead cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/47598/tua-tagovailoa
Tyreek – 3 years $90mm, can get out after 2026 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19119/tyreek-hill
Jalen Ramsey – 3 years, $72mm, looks like no out through 2028 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/18953/jalen-ramsey
Waddle – 3 years, $84mm, can get out after 2027 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72385/jaylen-waddle
Chubb – 5 years, $110mm, can get out after this year with a $27mm cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25100/bradley-chubb
Armstead – 3 years, $38mm, can get out after this year with an $18mm cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/12356/terron-armstead
Bonus Questions – if we fired both Grier and McDaniel, do you think another team would hire either of them as a GM or head coach? Not that McDaniel is going anywhere either, because they just gave him a big new contract too!
I will start with the easy ones. If it doesn’t look good by the time the deadline rolls around, I would trade Chubb and Armstead, for not a ton of draft compensation, as they are special situations. My guess is we would move on from them after this year anyway, and eat the dead money, so if there is a contender that wants them for a playoff run, sold to you!
As for the rest of these guys, Waddle given his age, might have the most value. I don’t think we can get out from under Tyreek, Tua, or the Ramsey contracts for any reasonable return. In fact, as far as Tua goes, if they wanted to deal him to another team, they would have to eat a fair bit of money to do it given the injury risk to the acquiring team, especially if he is declared medically ineligible to return if he gets concussed again, which seems like a real risk. Sadly, I think the contract has turned into a liability.
Then of course, if they plan on having Tua around, there is not much point to having Tua, without Tyreek and Waddle being here. And also if they plan on having Tua around, I doubt we will be using a high draft pick on another QB. So it seems we are stuck with all of it, including Grier and McDaniel. Said another way, my guess is 2-3 more years with the same guys here, small outside chance of a Grier firing, but beyond that, the basic structure of the team is not changing for the next few years. Sadly, I think the basic structure of the team gets worse because these contracts are back end loaded and the cap hits start to bite, so that will force more of the other talent off the roster. It is what it is at this point, the bed seemingly has been made.
Rebuilding means that in addition to the front office changing, the roster needs to be turned over and rebuilt as well. There is a real problem now because of the contracts they handed out. It is unclear to me if they can trade these guys, get out from under these commitments, acquire meaningful draft capital, and start rebuilding.
The test of some of these contracts is if the player can be traded, and value can be received in return. If so, the contract is decent to good. If not, it is a bad contract.
For example, Davante Adams is not as good as Tyreek. But he had value in the trade market because his contract is up after this year, and he has been mostly paid out already, so the Jets are on the hook for almost nothing in terms of salary. Amari Cooper, not much different. $800K cap hit this year, no obligation left to him after this year.
The guys on the Dolphins roster, that they would have to deal off, I am not sure if they are even tradable because of the money and term left relative to their age, skill set, or injury issues. Term would be a good thing if there was value to the contract, but I think in nearly every case, you can argue these guys are overpaid.
Basically, I am worried that there are no Tunsil like deals to be had, or anything close to that, for anyone on the roster because the contracts we gave our really good players are prohibitive and take a lot of the value out of a potential deal.
There is no point in trading them unless you can get first and second rounders, like we did with Tunsil. Otherwise all you are doing is dumping salary, and putting more money in the owners back pocket, for lower round draft picks that don't have much value and are not enough to form the nucleus of a team. For example, even though I don’t think Ramsey is worth the $25mm, I do think he is much better than the $6mm a year guy they might sign to replace him. If you traded Ramsey for a 4th rounder, despite the extra cap space, you probably make yourself worse. Or you have extra money they turn around to use and overpay another free agent, and are back in the same spot, or maybe not if you get it wrong on the new guy.
Then the problem also becomes if it is hard to get out from under this stuff, what good GM is going to want to take the job knowing there might be nothing they can do for the next few years until these contracts burn off? It is pointless to let Grier do the rebuild too, so obviously you have to believe Ross would finally fire him, after letting Grier handle this stuff at the deadline (unless you believe some of these guys would be worth more in the offseason and a theoretical new GM could make the decisions). The Grier issue adds another layer of complexity – you do not want to have him leading another rebuild.
Here is a list of guys that the Dolphins would have to deal to try and rebuild. You tell me if you could get first or second rounders for these guys given their contracts, or if in fact the Dolphins were able to move them, they would have to eat money to actually do it and still not get much in return:
Tua – 4 years $212 mm, can get out in 2027, but would still have a $38mm dead cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/47598/tua-tagovailoa
Tyreek – 3 years $90mm, can get out after 2026 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19119/tyreek-hill
Jalen Ramsey – 3 years, $72mm, looks like no out through 2028 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/18953/jalen-ramsey
Waddle – 3 years, $84mm, can get out after 2027 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72385/jaylen-waddle
Chubb – 5 years, $110mm, can get out after this year with a $27mm cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25100/bradley-chubb
Armstead – 3 years, $38mm, can get out after this year with an $18mm cap hit https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/12356/terron-armstead
Bonus Questions – if we fired both Grier and McDaniel, do you think another team would hire either of them as a GM or head coach? Not that McDaniel is going anywhere either, because they just gave him a big new contract too!
I will start with the easy ones. If it doesn’t look good by the time the deadline rolls around, I would trade Chubb and Armstead, for not a ton of draft compensation, as they are special situations. My guess is we would move on from them after this year anyway, and eat the dead money, so if there is a contender that wants them for a playoff run, sold to you!
As for the rest of these guys, Waddle given his age, might have the most value. I don’t think we can get out from under Tyreek, Tua, or the Ramsey contracts for any reasonable return. In fact, as far as Tua goes, if they wanted to deal him to another team, they would have to eat a fair bit of money to do it given the injury risk to the acquiring team, especially if he is declared medically ineligible to return if he gets concussed again, which seems like a real risk. Sadly, I think the contract has turned into a liability.
Then of course, if they plan on having Tua around, there is not much point to having Tua, without Tyreek and Waddle being here. And also if they plan on having Tua around, I doubt we will be using a high draft pick on another QB. So it seems we are stuck with all of it, including Grier and McDaniel. Said another way, my guess is 2-3 more years with the same guys here, small outside chance of a Grier firing, but beyond that, the basic structure of the team is not changing for the next few years. Sadly, I think the basic structure of the team gets worse because these contracts are back end loaded and the cap hits start to bite, so that will force more of the other talent off the roster. It is what it is at this point, the bed seemingly has been made.
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