ciscoholgate
Winning is a Habit
Overview:
This week’s matchup between the San Diego Chargers and the Miami Dolphins is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff picture. Both teams come in with a 4-5 record and the loser will drop to 4-6 and will likely be eliminated from playoff contention. The Dolphins are reeling this week after a loss in Tampa Bay to a previously winless Buccaneers team. The Chargers come into Miami also coming off a loss to the Broncos. The Chargers have lost three of their last five games and the Dolphins come into this week’s matchup having lost five of their last six games.
The Chargers and Dolphins have each won twelve games apiece in the series with the Chargers winning the last two games (both played in San Diego). Miami has on the last six matchups against the Chargers when playing in Miami.
Chargers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense:
Phillip Rivers has found his touch again this year under first year Head Coach Mike McCoy. Rivers has posted a 105.9 QB rating this season so far, 2nd best in his ten year NFL career in San Diego. Rivers has 18 passing touchdowns and 2,691 yards passing this year, both rank him 5th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Ryan Matthews is the Chargers leading rusher and is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has 2 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Chargers use a running back by committee approach. Danny Woodhead has taken nearly half the team’s offensive snaps (47%) at running back. He is an all purpose back that the Dolphins are familiar with due to his time spent playing in New England with the Patriots. Wood head is a good pass blocker and an even better receiver out of the back field. Woodhead leads the team in receptions. He has 53 receptions on the year and has hauled in 4 touchdowns as a pass catcher. At tight end Antonio Gates is healthier than he has been in the past few seasons and has pulled in 52 passes for 612 yards.
On the outside rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen is playing very well since primary target Malcolm Floyd was placed on injured reserve earlier in the season. Allen has amassed 35 receptions 538 yards and 3 touchdowns in his past six games and could provide a matchup issue for the Dolphins secondary. Allen is a physical WR who likes to go over the middle of the field. He runs exceptional routes and is a very physical player. His physicality allows him to make catches in traffic and often with cornerbacks draped all over him.
The weakness of the Chargers is their offensive line. They don’t run block very well, but have only given up 16 sacks on the year. Chargers rookie right tackle DJ Fluker is a run mauler, but has struggled with speed rushers this season. I expect Wake to dominate this matchup and get pressure on Rivers all game long if the Chargers don’t double Wake every play. The Dolphins have had trouble covering running backs and tight ends in the pass game all year and the Chargers rely on their running back/tight end combo to produce big plays in the passing game. I expect the Chargers to win this matchup of offense versus defense.
Dolphins Offense vs. Chargers Defense:
The Chargers field one of the worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. They have give up an average of 394.1 yards per game which ranks them 4th worst in the NFL. The secondary for the Chargers is especially dismal this year allowing 279.6 yards per game through the air and allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 104.3. That passer rating ranks the Chargers secondary worst in the league. Expect Miami to win matchups at wide receiver all game and Tannehill will have to take advantage of the open receivers.
The Chargers leading tackler and best defender is Eric Weddle. He has amassed 70 total tackles on the year with 50 of them being solo tackles. Weddle plays best when he is allowed to roam and play near the line of scrimmage. He has 16 career interceptions and can matchup up on tight ends or slot receivers. Last week he played some saps in the slot against the Broncos receiver Wes Welker. Welker was held to 3 receptions for 21 yards.
The Chargers have 22 sacks on the season and that ranks them 20th in the NFL. Defensive end Corey Liuget and outside linebacker Jarrett Johnson lead the team with 3.0 sacks apiece. Prominent outside linebacker Larry English (who had 2.5 sacks) was placed on season ending injured reserve this week. His absence will help a struggling Dolphins offensive line who has given up the most sacks (37) in the NFL this year.
The Dolphins will need balance in order to put up 20 or more points in this game and to keep Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense off the field. Miami should be able to find some success running the ball because the Chargers are allowing opposing teams to average 4.8 yards per carry (4th worst in the NFL). I give the edge to Miami’s offense against the Chargers defense.
The Skinny & Prediction:
I expect an offensive proficient game for both teams. Both teams should be able to put up at least 20 points apiece in this game. This game should boil down to which team’s defense makes the biggest plays (interceptions, sacks, or fumble recoveries). Miami has the edge in this respect as they have forced 12 interceptions, recovered 4 fumbles and have 27 sacks on the year. The Chargers only have 4 interceptions (2nd worst in the league), 5 fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks on the year.
Miami wins in a shootout (in a half empty stadium) against an inconsistent Chargers team, 27-23.
This week’s matchup between the San Diego Chargers and the Miami Dolphins is a pivotal game in the AFC playoff picture. Both teams come in with a 4-5 record and the loser will drop to 4-6 and will likely be eliminated from playoff contention. The Dolphins are reeling this week after a loss in Tampa Bay to a previously winless Buccaneers team. The Chargers come into Miami also coming off a loss to the Broncos. The Chargers have lost three of their last five games and the Dolphins come into this week’s matchup having lost five of their last six games.
The Chargers and Dolphins have each won twelve games apiece in the series with the Chargers winning the last two games (both played in San Diego). Miami has on the last six matchups against the Chargers when playing in Miami.
Chargers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense:
Phillip Rivers has found his touch again this year under first year Head Coach Mike McCoy. Rivers has posted a 105.9 QB rating this season so far, 2nd best in his ten year NFL career in San Diego. Rivers has 18 passing touchdowns and 2,691 yards passing this year, both rank him 5th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Ryan Matthews is the Chargers leading rusher and is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has 2 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Chargers use a running back by committee approach. Danny Woodhead has taken nearly half the team’s offensive snaps (47%) at running back. He is an all purpose back that the Dolphins are familiar with due to his time spent playing in New England with the Patriots. Wood head is a good pass blocker and an even better receiver out of the back field. Woodhead leads the team in receptions. He has 53 receptions on the year and has hauled in 4 touchdowns as a pass catcher. At tight end Antonio Gates is healthier than he has been in the past few seasons and has pulled in 52 passes for 612 yards.
On the outside rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen is playing very well since primary target Malcolm Floyd was placed on injured reserve earlier in the season. Allen has amassed 35 receptions 538 yards and 3 touchdowns in his past six games and could provide a matchup issue for the Dolphins secondary. Allen is a physical WR who likes to go over the middle of the field. He runs exceptional routes and is a very physical player. His physicality allows him to make catches in traffic and often with cornerbacks draped all over him.
The weakness of the Chargers is their offensive line. They don’t run block very well, but have only given up 16 sacks on the year. Chargers rookie right tackle DJ Fluker is a run mauler, but has struggled with speed rushers this season. I expect Wake to dominate this matchup and get pressure on Rivers all game long if the Chargers don’t double Wake every play. The Dolphins have had trouble covering running backs and tight ends in the pass game all year and the Chargers rely on their running back/tight end combo to produce big plays in the passing game. I expect the Chargers to win this matchup of offense versus defense.
Dolphins Offense vs. Chargers Defense:
The Chargers field one of the worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. They have give up an average of 394.1 yards per game which ranks them 4th worst in the NFL. The secondary for the Chargers is especially dismal this year allowing 279.6 yards per game through the air and allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 104.3. That passer rating ranks the Chargers secondary worst in the league. Expect Miami to win matchups at wide receiver all game and Tannehill will have to take advantage of the open receivers.
The Chargers leading tackler and best defender is Eric Weddle. He has amassed 70 total tackles on the year with 50 of them being solo tackles. Weddle plays best when he is allowed to roam and play near the line of scrimmage. He has 16 career interceptions and can matchup up on tight ends or slot receivers. Last week he played some saps in the slot against the Broncos receiver Wes Welker. Welker was held to 3 receptions for 21 yards.
The Chargers have 22 sacks on the season and that ranks them 20th in the NFL. Defensive end Corey Liuget and outside linebacker Jarrett Johnson lead the team with 3.0 sacks apiece. Prominent outside linebacker Larry English (who had 2.5 sacks) was placed on season ending injured reserve this week. His absence will help a struggling Dolphins offensive line who has given up the most sacks (37) in the NFL this year.
The Dolphins will need balance in order to put up 20 or more points in this game and to keep Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense off the field. Miami should be able to find some success running the ball because the Chargers are allowing opposing teams to average 4.8 yards per carry (4th worst in the NFL). I give the edge to Miami’s offense against the Chargers defense.
The Skinny & Prediction:
I expect an offensive proficient game for both teams. Both teams should be able to put up at least 20 points apiece in this game. This game should boil down to which team’s defense makes the biggest plays (interceptions, sacks, or fumble recoveries). Miami has the edge in this respect as they have forced 12 interceptions, recovered 4 fumbles and have 27 sacks on the year. The Chargers only have 4 interceptions (2nd worst in the league), 5 fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks on the year.
Miami wins in a shootout (in a half empty stadium) against an inconsistent Chargers team, 27-23.
