Rhody Phins Fan
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This is from a chat with Aaron Schatz who writes for FootballOutsiders.com and Pro Football Prospectus. He knows his stuff. It's interesting to see what he has to say about the Ronnie/Ricky situation.
roguerouge (JP, MA): Your site has gotten the rep for being quite good at picking players that will decline. How badly do you want to shed that vulture reputation, or are you fine with it? And what will it take to shed that rep with fantasy players? Aaron Schatz: This sort of ties in with the last question. I have no desire to shed that vulture reputation. Why is it a problem? I would definitely love to get better at projecting improvement, but I don't mind that Football Outsiders is known as "the guys who told me to stay away from Shaun Alexander the last two years." Again, so much of predicting sleepers is about reading tea leaves in July and August, and reading the minds of coaches. Even when presented with a situation where one player is clearly better than the other, coaches will sometimes play the inferior back, and what can KUBIAK do to predict this? For example, there is no reason for Miami to start Ricky Williams over Ronnie Brown. NONE. Ronnie Brown is by far the more talented back. Ricky Williams has never, ever been as good as Ronnie Brown. If Brown's ACL injury isn't healed enough for him to be better than Ricky Williams, he shouldn't be behind Williams on the depth chart. He should be spending the first six weeks of the season on PUP so he can come back healthy.
roguerouge (JP, MA): Your site has gotten the rep for being quite good at picking players that will decline. How badly do you want to shed that vulture reputation, or are you fine with it? And what will it take to shed that rep with fantasy players? Aaron Schatz: This sort of ties in with the last question. I have no desire to shed that vulture reputation. Why is it a problem? I would definitely love to get better at projecting improvement, but I don't mind that Football Outsiders is known as "the guys who told me to stay away from Shaun Alexander the last two years." Again, so much of predicting sleepers is about reading tea leaves in July and August, and reading the minds of coaches. Even when presented with a situation where one player is clearly better than the other, coaches will sometimes play the inferior back, and what can KUBIAK do to predict this? For example, there is no reason for Miami to start Ricky Williams over Ronnie Brown. NONE. Ronnie Brown is by far the more talented back. Ricky Williams has never, ever been as good as Ronnie Brown. If Brown's ACL injury isn't healed enough for him to be better than Ricky Williams, he shouldn't be behind Williams on the depth chart. He should be spending the first six weeks of the season on PUP so he can come back healthy.
