Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild

[Finsup1981]

Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild​

The Super Bowl window has closed for this core of Dolphins that’s led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The imminent departure of star cornerback Jalen Ramsey means something as basic as winning a playoff game isn’t a realistic option in the next couple of years.
A rebuild, led by a culture change, must occur after this season.
The Dolphins have way too much talent, especially offensively, for 2025 to be deemed anything resembling a rebuild.
That’s the good news, if there is any good news in this situation.
The bad news is the Dolphins are positioned very poorly for a rebuild.
They don’t have the resources to add significant talent, and in the meantime they’ll continue losing top talent.
What does that mean for 2025?
Mediocrity. Again.
It means the 2025 season is basically a duck-and-cover drill for executives, coaches and players.
It means the 2025 season is one that plays out the string while the front office plots the next Super Bowl run, maybe in 2028. This is a season that sets up the future while paying minimal attention to the present.
I think the Dolphins can win nine games in 2025. They’re not far from being a playoff team.
Simply making the playoffs, however, is an embarrassingly low bar that must be raised as part of the required culture change.
Here’s what I mean: when the talent-rich Dolphins made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2022-23, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major success and celebrated with lucrative contract extensions amid a wave of optimism; when the so-so Miami Heat made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2024-25, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major failure and earth-shaking changes have been contemplated amid a sense of frustration.
The Dolphins must rebuild in many ways.
Think of 2025 as a pivot year, the year to get things right for the future. This year’s team has almost no chance of winning a playoff game or any other significant accomplishment. That’s the reality.
I originally thought 2024 would be the get-right season and 2025 would be the go-for-it season in a final hurrah for this core of players.
But this core won’t have another “go for it” season.
The glory days are gone. Over. Finished. The Super Bowl window for this collection of players is closed and locked.
There was a small crack to squeeze through before the Dolphins and Ramsey mutually agreed to seek a trade shortly before the draft in April.
But Ramsey’s imminent departure slams the Super Bowl window shut for the core of the Dolphins players that began being gathered in 2022, coach Mike McDaniel’s first season.
Key players such as left tackle Terron Armstead, guard Robert Hunt, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, safety Jevon Holland and, in a few weeks, Ramsey, have gone away, stripping this squad of any chance of being better than the gold standard of this disappointing era, the 2023 team that finished 11-6.
As for the near future, well, consider that Tyreek is scheduled to count $51.9 million against the salary cap in 2026. One way or the other, he’ll likely be gone after this season. Once Tyreek leaves, it’s all over for this offense. It must be totally rebuilt.
And Tua’s contract becomes easier to part with after 2026 when his $34.8 dead cap money hit becomes more digestible. He’s due to count $56.4 million against the salary cap in 2026, $53.4 million in 2027, and $65.8 million in 2028, his eighth season.
Few teams are willing to stay with a quarterback who earns that much but can’t win a playoff game, so extending Tua’s contract to lower/spread his salary cap charge wouldn’t seem a wise option.
In a span of three years, the Dolphins could lose Tyreek, Tua, Armstead, Campbell, Ramsey and Holland.
Also, they must make a decision on whether to re-sign edge rusher Jaelan Phillips or allow him to depart in free agency after this season. He’s playing on his fifth-year option.
A major rebuild is coming.
The draft classes of 2023 and 2024 must form a new core, and there’s not much hope for that to happen at this way-too-early point of the process.
Running back De’Von Achane and edge rusher Chop Robinson form the nucleus of the new core, and they’re not nearly enough.
We’ll see if defensive tackle Kenneth Grant and guard Jonah Savaiinaea, this year’s first- and second-round picks, respectively, can help form a new nucleus.
But there’s not much more to offer from the previous three drafts.
Perhaps this season the Dolphins’ under-achieving offense, which loaded up on everything from coaches to quarterbacks this offseason, can finally carry this team to big things.
After all, if not for offensive additions such as senior pass game coordinator Bobby Slowik, backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers, guard James Daniels, Savaiinaea, running backs Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon II, backup guard-tackle Larry Borom, big wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and in-line tight end Pharaoh Brown this season would be the rebuild year.
Those, however, are major additions.
So there’s a chance the offense can put the 2025 Dolphins on its shoulders and carry it to big things.
But most likely, the Dolphins are playing a waiting game during the 2025 season, merely killing time before they can get to the inevitable rebuild beginning in 2026.

Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild

I originally thought 2024 would be the reset season and 2025 would be the go-for-it season for this core of players. But this core won’t have another “go for it” season.

www.sun-sentinel.com

 

[Finsup1981]

Cant say I disagree with anything he stated, only way we are winning over 9 games is if we stay injury free all year and we all know thats not happening with the injury prone guys we rely on year in and year out. All i hope is that Grier is finally gone if we have anything less than a playoff victory this year.

 

[hoops]

Absolutely no reason the current regime should be in place for it post 2025.

Zero nada zilch.

 

[Finsup1981]

Absolutely no reason the current regime should be in place for it post 2025.

Zero nada zilch.

My biggest fear with that is having a mediocre season, then Grier "stepping down" to a different role in the team and them promoting Champ Kelly to GM...if they think that will appease the fans they may be right but it will only lead to more mediocrity in the future. We need to clean this thing from the top to the bottom and bring in guys that know how to succeed, someone from the KC/Philly etc front offices that have seen what a well-run franchise looks like, please no more half measures Mr. Ross

 

[AZFINSFANFORLIFE]

What a freaking joke. There is no other franchise that had such a splash in its glory days have such malaise and poor play for so long than the Dolphins. We were just "contenders" and now we get worse? WTF is happening there in South Beach? Ross and Garfinkel would rather give out F1 trophies to race car drivers than to see the Dolphins do anything meaningful. It's painful and pathetic at the same time.

 

[hoops]

My biggest fear with that is having a mediocre season, then Grier "stepping down" to a different role in the team and them promoting Champ Kelly to GM...if they think that will appease the fans they may be right but it will only lead to more mediocrity in the future. We need to clean this thing from the top to the bottom and bring in guys that know how to succeed, someone from the KC/Philly etc front offices that have seen what a well-run franchise looks like, please no more half measures Mr. Ross

Yeah no one in the building currently please

But Perkins is optimistic with mediocre. This sucker has all the makings of flat out implosion.

 

[DuderinoN703]

Perhaps it’s the optimist in me but I don’t see it being as drastic as Perkins does. Players come and go. Armstead and Campbell weren’t going to play forever. Patrick Paul and Kenneth Grant now play in their spots. Hunt left two seasons ago now and Daniels/Savaiinaea replace him and the other G slot. Holland leaving could hurt so for now I’ll say that’s an incomplete assessment. Their current record secondary is weak until Grier decides to sign someone else. Hill gone after this year? Again, the expectation wasn’t for him to play here for 10 years. WRs should be easy to replace.

 

[hoops]

Folks are in for a rude awakening this year.

 

[fin007]

Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild​

The Super Bowl window has closed for this core of Dolphins that’s led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The imminent departure of star cornerback Jalen Ramsey means something as basic as winning a playoff game isn’t a realistic option in the next couple of years.
A rebuild, led by a culture change, must occur after this season.
The Dolphins have way too much talent, especially offensively, for 2025 to be deemed anything resembling a rebuild.
That’s the good news, if there is any good news in this situation.
The bad news is the Dolphins are positioned very poorly for a rebuild.
They don’t have the resources to add significant talent, and in the meantime they’ll continue losing top talent.
What does that mean for 2025?
Mediocrity. Again.
It means the 2025 season is basically a duck-and-cover drill for executives, coaches and players.
It means the 2025 season is one that plays out the string while the front office plots the next Super Bowl run, maybe in 2028. This is a season that sets up the future while paying minimal attention to the present.
I think the Dolphins can win nine games in 2025. They’re not far from being a playoff team.
Simply making the playoffs, however, is an embarrassingly low bar that must be raised as part of the required culture change.
Here’s what I mean: when the talent-rich Dolphins made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2022-23, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major success and celebrated with lucrative contract extensions amid a wave of optimism; when the so-so Miami Heat made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2024-25, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major failure and earth-shaking changes have been contemplated amid a sense of frustration.
The Dolphins must rebuild in many ways.
Think of 2025 as a pivot year, the year to get things right for the future. This year’s team has almost no chance of winning a playoff game or any other significant accomplishment. That’s the reality.
I originally thought 2024 would be the get-right season and 2025 would be the go-for-it season in a final hurrah for this core of players.
But this core won’t have another “go for it” season.
The glory days are gone. Over. Finished. The Super Bowl window for this collection of players is closed and locked.
There was a small crack to squeeze through before the Dolphins and Ramsey mutually agreed to seek a trade shortly before the draft in April.
But Ramsey’s imminent departure slams the Super Bowl window shut for the core of the Dolphins players that began being gathered in 2022, coach Mike McDaniel’s first season.
Key players such as left tackle Terron Armstead, guard Robert Hunt, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, safety Jevon Holland and, in a few weeks, Ramsey, have gone away, stripping this squad of any chance of being better than the gold standard of this disappointing era, the 2023 team that finished 11-6.
As for the near future, well, consider that Tyreek is scheduled to count $51.9 million against the salary cap in 2026. One way or the other, he’ll likely be gone after this season. Once Tyreek leaves, it’s all over for this offense. It must be totally rebuilt.
And Tua’s contract becomes easier to part with after 2026 when his $34.8 dead cap money hit becomes more digestible. He’s due to count $56.4 million against the salary cap in 2026, $53.4 million in 2027, and $65.8 million in 2028, his eighth season.
Few teams are willing to stay with a quarterback who earns that much but can’t win a playoff game, so extending Tua’s contract to lower/spread his salary cap charge wouldn’t seem a wise option.
In a span of three years, the Dolphins could lose Tyreek, Tua, Armstead, Campbell, Ramsey and Holland.
Also, they must make a decision on whether to re-sign edge rusher Jaelan Phillips or allow him to depart in free agency after this season. He’s playing on his fifth-year option.
A major rebuild is coming.
The draft classes of 2023 and 2024 must form a new core, and there’s not much hope for that to happen at this way-too-early point of the process.
Running back De’Von Achane and edge rusher Chop Robinson form the nucleus of the new core, and they’re not nearly enough.
We’ll see if defensive tackle Kenneth Grant and guard Jonah Savaiinaea, this year’s first- and second-round picks, respectively, can help form a new nucleus.
But there’s not much more to offer from the previous three drafts.
Perhaps this season the Dolphins’ under-achieving offense, which loaded up on everything from coaches to quarterbacks this offseason, can finally carry this team to big things.
After all, if not for offensive additions such as senior pass game coordinator Bobby Slowik, backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers, guard James Daniels, Savaiinaea, running backs Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon II, backup guard-tackle Larry Borom, big wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and in-line tight end Pharaoh Brown this season would be the rebuild year.
Those, however, are major additions.
So there’s a chance the offense can put the 2025 Dolphins on its shoulders and carry it to big things.
But most likely, the Dolphins are playing a waiting game during the 2025 season, merely killing time before they can get to the inevitable rebuild beginning in 2026.

Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild

I originally thought 2024 would be the reset season and 2025 would be the go-for-it season for this core of players. But this core won’t have another “go for it” season.

www.sun-sentinel.com

The writer must have consulted the oracle at Delphi.

No one knows what will happen. Wild guesswork is all this writer is doing.

Like many who post on this site.

 

[Finsup1981]

The writer must have consulted the oracle at Delphi.

No one knows what will happen. Wild guesswork is all this writer is doing.

Like many who post on this site.

Correct, but the national narrative has the Dolphins missing the playoffs and being around a 9 win team at most, so this in line with how the media sees our season and our team in general. We arent thought of very highly, and I think they are valid in their reasoning, we were a team that relied on high end talent who lost a lot of that high end talent in recent seasons and we dont have a lot of depth because our drafts have been pretty awful, namely 2022 and 2023 when we only came out with one decent contributor in those 2 years (Achane).

There are posters on this site that have a much higher opinion of our team than anyone in the media.

 

[bane]

Chris Perkins. lol enough said. If its from Alf, Reason, Kyle Crabbs, even Omar. I would say it has merit. This guy doesn't watch any tape at all. It probably will be a disapointing year becasue we will have injuries and no depth. But Chris Perkins opinion has no merit because he simply doesn't watch any film. Just guess work.

 

[Frisco Fin]

"something as basic as winning a playoff game"

LOL. Does this dude realize what team he's talking about?

 

[fin007]

Correct, but the national narrative has the Dolphins missing the playoffs and being around a 9 win team at most, so this in line with how the media sees our season and our team in general. We arent thought of very highly, and I think they are valid in their reasoning, we were a team that relied on high end talent who lost a lot of that high end talent in recent seasons and we dont have a lot of depth because our drafts have been pretty awful, namely 2022 and 2023 when we only came out with one decent contributor in those 2 years (Achane).

There are posters on this site that have a much higher opinion of our team than anyone in the media.

Some believe people learn from mistakes and will get better; others, they believe the opposite.

I believe the coach and the players will learn from last year’s shetty overall results and will get better.

As for the final outcome, no one really knows at this early stage in the season. After five games, will be a little more clear. To prognosticate about season’s end at this point is pure guesswork and conjecture.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I think it was a bad move to bring in an unproven rookie head coach after firing Flores. With a veteran coach, the talent on the 22-23 squad should have brought playoff success.

Obviously, that's water under the bridge. This does feel like a transition year, but I like the potential of Grant and Savaiinaea as building blocks in the trenches. Maybe McDaniel continues to adapt and becomes the answer at head coach. If not, then real changes are coming.

I do agree that Miami's offense could be really good this year, and it likely will have to be with the youth on defense.

The biggest question, player wise, may be Tua and whether he's the guy after 2026.

 

[Mello Yello]

Chris Perkins. lol enough said. If its from Alf, Reason, Kyle Crabbs, even Omar. I would say it has merit. This guy doesn't watch any tape at all. It probably will be a disappointing year because we will have injuries and no depth. But Chris Perkins opinion has no merit because he simply doesn't watch any film. Just guess work.

I don't hate Perkins. He's a nice guy so I won't pick on him, but yeah, that take sucks. Perkins' take is lazy and amounts to, 'Ramsey leaving means we're dead.'

You can argue that it's a make-or-break year for Leadership. You can even argue that this regime putting its faith in rookie production is a huge turn away from its prior tendencies. But if this team ends up "rebuilding" in 2026 because of failures in 2025 then call it what it is...the failure of this regime to find the next set of pieces.

If you can't see the core, that's on you. Perkins named 2 guys. It's a lot more than that!

The core is Seiler, Grant, Phillips, Chop, Brooks, Kohou, Brewer, Savaiinaea, Daniels, Paul, Ajax, Achane, Waddle, and a series of guys you hope play well and earn a spot as well which includes young players at Safety, CB, TE, WR, and RB.

If you think you're going to die because of the loss of mid-tier players (e.g. Holland) along with a handful of vets on their last legs (e.g. Campbell, Ramsey, etc.)...you weren't that good to begin with, dude.