ckparrothead
Premium Member
Game 1: “Fun†in the Sun
Underachievers of 2004 Try to Pull Off a Home Upset
by Chris Kouffman
9/9/05
By The Numbers:
Offense:
Dolphins’ 31st ranked rush O vs. the Broncos’ 4th ranked rush D
Dolphins’ 21st ranked pass O vs. the Broncos’ 6th ranked pass D
Dolphins’ 29th ranked yardage O vs. the Broncos’ 4th ranked yardage D
Dolphins’ 28th ranked scoring O vs. Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring D
Defense:
Dolphins’ 31st ranked rush D vs. Broncos’ 4th ranked rush O
Dolphins’ 2nd ranked pass D vs. Broncos’ 6th ranked pass O
Dolphins’ 8th ranked yardage D vs. Broncos’ 5th ranked yardage O
Dolphins’ 20th ranked scoring D vs. Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring O
On paper this is as one-sided as it gets. However, after suffering a 4-12 season, just about every team in the NFL is going to look better than the Dolphins on paper. The Dolphins’ 2004 scoring defense gets a bad rap due to the 8 return touchdowns let up by the offense and special teams units. Adjusting for the return touchdowns, the Dolphins defense gave up slightly fewer points than the Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring defense.
The Momentum Story
Momentum usually tells a story behind the story, and the match up between these two teams is no different. During the final 6 games of the season Miami was able to gather a little offensive momentum as they played for interim head coach Jim Bates. The run defense was abysmal, continuing only to get worst during the final 6 games, as the interior of the defensive line continued to suffer injuries and fatigue from lack of depth. Overall defensive effectiveness showed little momentum in the back stretch, but the offense began to average 21 points a game (compared to a full season average of 17 points a game) while continuing to allow only 19 points a game. This allowed the Dolphins to assemble a 3-3 record in the final 6 games. The primary driver of offensive momentum was improvement in the passing attack, led by more consistent blocking along the offensive line.
The Broncos, on the other hand, seemed to lose momentum during the final 6 games, especially if you toss out the final game against the Indianapolis Colts as an outlier. The Colts, who had already secured their seeding in the playoff picture, held back nearly all of their key starters in what turned out to be a 33-14 rout by the Broncos. During the five games preceding, the Broncos allowed considerably more points than they had in the first 10 games, an average of 23 points per game vs. their season average of 19 points per game. Their run defense had not lost momentum, but breakdowns in their pass defense began to affect their performance. On offense, the Broncos also lost momentum gaining only 22 points per game vs. their season average of 24 points per game. The Broncos had lost some effectiveness in the red zone. Overall during this period, allowing more points than they’d scored, the Broncos were only able to assemble a 2-3 record.
By no means is this exercise a means of asserting that the Dolphins were a better team over the final 6 game stretch of the season than the Broncos, however those looking at the paper trail for the full season and seeing an easy Bronco blowout should take notice that these teams are a little bit closer to each other than they would otherwise appear on paper.
The Heat Index: A Scientific Advantage
A key factor playing into this game will be the heat and humidity of South Florida. The Broncos have a 3-9-1 historical record against the Dolphins. In Denver, the Broncos are 3-3-1, however when facing the Dolphins in South Florida, they are 0-6. The heat played a factor in most of those losses. During September and October, Miami is one of the most humid areas of the entire country, leading to some of the most consistently high heat index ratings in the nation.
A heat index is a measure of the outside temperature adjusted for levels of humidity. The body releases heat by sweating through the skin; when the sweat evaporates it siphons off some of the body’s heat with it. High levels of humidity prevent sweat from evaporating easily, which interferes with the body’s ability to cool itself. This science lesson is the basis for the Dolphins’ stellar historical record at home during the months of September and October. Until 2004, when everything on the Dolphins imploded, the team had not lost a September home game since 1994. Anyone who has experienced the weather in South Florida during the time period knows that it can feel like you are trying to breathe in a hot, wet blanket. The Broncos will have a significant hurdle to cross during the fourth quarter if they want to walk out of Dolphins Stadium with a victory.
Key Players and Matchups:
Chris Chambers vs. Champ Bailey: Chris Chambers is the Dolphins number one playmaker on an offense that features a lot of playmakers at the skill positions, and there is no doubt that the Dolphins offense is at its best when Chambers is able to break loose and score some touchdowns. Bailey has the reputation of being the best corner in the league, but last season showed weakness in deep match ups against Chad Johnson and Jerry Porter. Chambers was not able to take advantage last season in Week 14, but now has a quarterback in Gus Frerotte who has the arm and the willingness to go deep consistently even if it means incompletions. Feeley always had the arm, but not the will to throw deep.
Dolphins Tight Ends vs. RDE Trevor Pryce: Scott Linehan’s offense relies on the tight ends to make one-on-one blocks with premier defensive ends on a regular basis. Randy McMichael can be a dominant blocker when he is concentrating properly, and the Dolphins picked up TE Will Heller from the Buccaneers to be a blocking specialist with hopefully more versatility in the passing game than Donald Lee. If the Dolphins’ tight ends are able to take on Pryce by themselves, it could open a world of possibilities in the running game and with play-action passes. If Pryce has a field day with the unit and requires consistent double-teams, the pressure on the middle of the offensive line may be too great to produce a consistent ground game.
Jason Taylor vs. The Denver OL: This truly is Jason Taylor’s time to shine. Normally a woefully understated speaker, Nick Saban dropped an uncharacteristic bomb when he said that Jason Taylor would be a Hall of Fame linebacker by now had he been playing in the 3-4 defense his entire career. While that is likely an exaggeration since Taylor would not be nearly as dangerous now in the 3-4 had he not perfected the art of the pass rush and added the weapons he did from the down position (such as the four-point stance), the point drives home just how much potential Taylor has to effect a game in this defense. Taylor has had some big games against the Broncos (almost single-handedly beating the Broncos in 2002), but he let LT Matt Lepsis get the better of him in their Week 14 match up during the 2004 season. Now Lepsis, and the rest of the Denver offensive line, will get a true taste of the pantheon of schemes that Nick Saban plans to run with Jason Taylor as his hatchet man.
Keith Traylor vs. Fatigue: Traylor has been more than the Dolphins could have expected at the nose tackle position in both the 4-3 and 3-4 alignments that the Dolphins run. He has been immovable, powerful, and sometimes even dominant in pass rush. At the beginning of training camp, the overweight Traylor threatened to melt in the Florida sun, he himself noting that he felt like he has “nothing left in the tank†playing in that sun. Obviously, he has improved. The big question is can he sustain for four quarters. Without him, the Dolphins will find it very difficult to stop the Broncos’ hallmark running game in the fourth quarter, and a collapsing run defense in the fourth quarter will lose you most close games.
Injuries:
LB Junior Seau, CB Travis Daniels (rookie), and P Matt Turk are all probable for the Dolphins.
TE Nate Jackson is questionable, while CB Champ Bailey and DE Courtney Brown are probable for the Broncos.
Keys to the Game:
Penalties & Errors: The Dolphins have a high propensity for penalties and other gaffes that destroy drives right now. They need to put that behind them now that the games are starting to count. It is, however, unlikely that they will do so. If the Dolphins can merely contain the penalties and stupid mistakes and not let them get completely out of hand, they will still have a decent chance in this game due to the heat.
Establish the Run: All football teams want to establish the run, but the Dolphins are not completing a high enough percentage of their deep passes right now to be able to afford an inconsistent and anemic running attack. A consistent running attack will allow the Dolphins to stay on the field long enough to get those deep plays working. Failure to establish the line of scrimmage will result in a much higher propensity for interceptions and general offensive failure. This will be a stiff, but not insurmountable test for the NFL’s worst offensive line from a year ago, now under the guidance of one of the best offensive line coaches in the game, Hudson Houck.
Snake Charming: Jake “The Snake†Plummer can be rattled if he consistently has defenders coming up on him and forcing him to play playground ball. Jake had his worst games of the year in 2004 when the defense was able to consistently apply pressure and bring Jake to the ground. Remember these numbers: 50.0, Plummer’s quarterback rating in the three games in which he was sacked multiple times, and 89.2, his quarterback rating in the eight games in which he was sacked zero times. Without consistent pressure, Mike Shanahan gets to design the use of Jake’s running talents. With consistent pressure, Jake Plummer is the one who decides if he has to run and when. The latter is far more likely to produce positive results for the Dolphins.
Background:
The Dolphins faced the Broncos at home in 2002 while Brian Griese was still quarterbacking for the team. Jason Taylor almost single-handedly won that game by coming up with two sacks for a loss of 30 yards, six solo tackles, a forced fumble that the Dolphins returned for a touchdown, and two passes defensed for good measure. During the teams’ 2004 rematch, the Dolphins lost a tight game 20-17 while Taylor had zero sacks.
The Dolphins come off an off-season in which they replaced a total of 26 of 53 players on the roster with completely new faces. Only 15 current Dolphins were wearing aqua and orange during the 2003 season, which was the last time the Dolphins had a winning record. Only eight players on the roster know what it felt like to go to the playoffs with the Dolphins in 2001.
Nick Saban has molded the defense into his own image of what a defense should look like. The players are on average one to two inches taller and 10 to 20 pounds heavier than their predecessors under Dave Wannstedt. A total 7 of 11 defensive starters did not start on the Dolphins in 2004. Yet, despite the turnover on the defensive side of the ball, the effectiveness of the unit has not gone down, judging by their performances in the preseason. The unit may even be stronger now that they are able to stop the run far more effectively than last season when they were missing Tim Bowens and Larry Chester for nearly the entire season and lacked a powerful tackle like Keith Traylor to replace them. Jason Taylor, who initially showed a few growing pains as he learned a new position, has displayed devastating potential in the new system now that he has gotten comfortable with it. Meanwhile, Kevin Carter is the Dolphins’ most valuable off-season acquisition, with his only serious challenger being Keith Traylor. Carter seems born for the role of defensive end in the 3-4 alignment, consistently dominating at the point of attack. While Taylor has the most potential for sheer explosion, Carter is much more consistently dominant in this defense.
If the Dolphins have managed to assemble an extremely talented starting defensive unit despite severe salary cap restrictions and the need to dump talented players like Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight, it only emphasizes what they were not able to assemble in their defensive depth. The Dolphins are extremely thin at defensive tackle, with no true replacement for Keith Traylor at nose tackle should he get injured or tired during a game. The Dolphins made an 11th hour maneuver to claim DT Tim McGill, who they had rated as the best defensive lineman in all of NFL Europe, off waivers from the Jets, but time will only tell if he is even a slightly less than mediocre substitute for Keith Traylor. Manuel Wright has showed the explosion and potential that led to his being named the best player of the supplemental draft, but he has also showed the lack of mental toughness and preparation that dropped him from a projected 2nd round selection to a 5th round selection. The Dolphins may not even keep Wright on the active roster during games. While the depth at defensive end and linebacker continue to be very strong, the depth at safety and cornerback is also waning. After Sam Madison, Reggie Howard, and rookie Travis Daniels, the Dolphins have virtually no experienced depth at corner as Mario Edwards turned out to be the same thing he was in Dallas and Tampa Bay, a bust. Travares Tillman continued his underachieving ways with the Dolphins and now has been replaced by Yeremiah Bell and Lance Schulters. Schulters could eventually solidify the unit significantly, but first he has to get comfortable with the complex defense that Saban runs since he had very little training camp time to learn it.
The Broncos, meanwhile, come off a questionable off-season in which they selected the controversial Maurice Clarett in the third round of the draft only to release him a few months later, signed the aged Jerry Rice only to have him retire after losing a spot on the depth chart to Darius Watts, transplanted 3/4ths of the horrible Cleveland Browns’ starting defensive line onto their own unit, and allowed talented players such as Kelly Herndon, Reggie Hayward, Dan Neil, Reuben Droughns, and Kenoy Kennedy to walk away from the team while not necessarily replacing them with equally-talented players. The Broncos got Ian Gold back from a disappointing injury-riddled stint with the Buccaneers, who asked him to play strong side linebacker rather than the weak side position he played previously with the Broncos.
During the preseason, the Broncos and Jake Plummer have shown the same quiet efficiency that allowed them to be one of the best offensive units of 2004. Plummer led three efficient outings in his first three preseason games before sitting out the fourth game in favor of backup Bradlee Van Pelt, who subsequently threw for 3 touchdowns. The Broncos continued to show success running the ball no matter who the runner was, and first round linebacker D.J. Williams, once hailed as a football player who could have made the transition to the NFL directly from high school, has looked pretty stellar along with backup defensive end John Engleberger. The Broncos would likely be better off putting Engleberger in at left defensive end in place of Courtney Brown, who is likely to be as injured and ineffective as he was in Cleveland, however in the first game of the season they likely will not pull the trigger on that kind of move.
Meanwhile the Dolphins have shown the same kind of inefficiency on offense during the preseason that landed them a 4-12 record. A.J. Feeley struggled against starting units, allowing Gus Frerotte to claim the role as lead quarterback, and just when Gus struggled enough to let Feeley back into the competition, A.J. reverted to his 2004 form throwing inaccurate passes that culminated in a trademark interception returned for a touchdown against the Falcons. The Dolphins have shown more promise running the ball with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, having good ground outings against the Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Falcons, but they have also shown inconsistency in offensive line blocking, which led to the most recent lineup change that returns four of the five starters from last year’s awful unit back to the forefront. The first string defense has been swarming and stellar, for the most part, however the special teams aside from the play of the specialists Wes Welker, Olindo Mare, and Matt Turk, has been ineffective and inconsistent. This may have led to the recent shake-ups along the bottom half of the roster with acquisitions like CB Eddie Jackson and CB Kiwaukee Thomas.
Prediction:
The Dolphins will show a lot of promise in this game, pulling off an upset victory over the Denver Broncos. The promise will fade fast when they travel up to New York in Week 2 and look a lot more like the 2004 Dolphins than the team that will beat the Broncos this week. When it all boils down to just stats on a piece of paper, the Broncos look far more intimidating than the Dolphins. Both teams historically like to get off to fast starts, but the late season momentum of both teams makes them more even than the paper story shows. Meanwhile, questionable off-season maneuvers along the Broncos’ defensive line unit will allow the Dolphins just enough space to crack open the ground game they need to get some points on the board despite the Broncos’ ferociously aggressive linebacker unit. D.J. Williams and Ian Gold are both susceptible to misdirection, and the Broncos do not have the cohesive disciplined defensive line unit to protect against the Dolphins’ misdirection-based running attack, which they used effectively against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. The Dolphins will gain ground yardage on WR slot end-around plays, the “90 flip†fake FB handoff flip toss to the outside RB, and general pulling and trapping run plays. This will allow their offense to stay on the field just long enough to complete a few deep passes to Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael, David Boston, and possibly Wes Welker.
From an historical perspective the Dolphins have a lot of reason to win this game. They are still the same team that practices in the same conditions that give them the best and most consistent season-related home field advantage in the entire NFL, even more consistent than the advantage teams like New England and Pittsburgh have in the home snow. The heat and humidity of South Florida will truly challenge the Broncos in ways they will not be able to surmount until they make some changes along their defensive line, unless they are able to take a big enough early lead that places the Dolphins in predictable passing situations. The Dolphins win this one, but are not likely to win many other ones in 2005.
Dolphins 23, Broncos 17
Comments: ckparrothead@yahoo.com
Underachievers of 2004 Try to Pull Off a Home Upset
by Chris Kouffman
9/9/05
By The Numbers:
Offense:
Dolphins’ 31st ranked rush O vs. the Broncos’ 4th ranked rush D
Dolphins’ 21st ranked pass O vs. the Broncos’ 6th ranked pass D
Dolphins’ 29th ranked yardage O vs. the Broncos’ 4th ranked yardage D
Dolphins’ 28th ranked scoring O vs. Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring D
Defense:
Dolphins’ 31st ranked rush D vs. Broncos’ 4th ranked rush O
Dolphins’ 2nd ranked pass D vs. Broncos’ 6th ranked pass O
Dolphins’ 8th ranked yardage D vs. Broncos’ 5th ranked yardage O
Dolphins’ 20th ranked scoring D vs. Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring O
On paper this is as one-sided as it gets. However, after suffering a 4-12 season, just about every team in the NFL is going to look better than the Dolphins on paper. The Dolphins’ 2004 scoring defense gets a bad rap due to the 8 return touchdowns let up by the offense and special teams units. Adjusting for the return touchdowns, the Dolphins defense gave up slightly fewer points than the Broncos’ 9th ranked scoring defense.
The Momentum Story
Momentum usually tells a story behind the story, and the match up between these two teams is no different. During the final 6 games of the season Miami was able to gather a little offensive momentum as they played for interim head coach Jim Bates. The run defense was abysmal, continuing only to get worst during the final 6 games, as the interior of the defensive line continued to suffer injuries and fatigue from lack of depth. Overall defensive effectiveness showed little momentum in the back stretch, but the offense began to average 21 points a game (compared to a full season average of 17 points a game) while continuing to allow only 19 points a game. This allowed the Dolphins to assemble a 3-3 record in the final 6 games. The primary driver of offensive momentum was improvement in the passing attack, led by more consistent blocking along the offensive line.
The Broncos, on the other hand, seemed to lose momentum during the final 6 games, especially if you toss out the final game against the Indianapolis Colts as an outlier. The Colts, who had already secured their seeding in the playoff picture, held back nearly all of their key starters in what turned out to be a 33-14 rout by the Broncos. During the five games preceding, the Broncos allowed considerably more points than they had in the first 10 games, an average of 23 points per game vs. their season average of 19 points per game. Their run defense had not lost momentum, but breakdowns in their pass defense began to affect their performance. On offense, the Broncos also lost momentum gaining only 22 points per game vs. their season average of 24 points per game. The Broncos had lost some effectiveness in the red zone. Overall during this period, allowing more points than they’d scored, the Broncos were only able to assemble a 2-3 record.
By no means is this exercise a means of asserting that the Dolphins were a better team over the final 6 game stretch of the season than the Broncos, however those looking at the paper trail for the full season and seeing an easy Bronco blowout should take notice that these teams are a little bit closer to each other than they would otherwise appear on paper.
The Heat Index: A Scientific Advantage
A key factor playing into this game will be the heat and humidity of South Florida. The Broncos have a 3-9-1 historical record against the Dolphins. In Denver, the Broncos are 3-3-1, however when facing the Dolphins in South Florida, they are 0-6. The heat played a factor in most of those losses. During September and October, Miami is one of the most humid areas of the entire country, leading to some of the most consistently high heat index ratings in the nation.
A heat index is a measure of the outside temperature adjusted for levels of humidity. The body releases heat by sweating through the skin; when the sweat evaporates it siphons off some of the body’s heat with it. High levels of humidity prevent sweat from evaporating easily, which interferes with the body’s ability to cool itself. This science lesson is the basis for the Dolphins’ stellar historical record at home during the months of September and October. Until 2004, when everything on the Dolphins imploded, the team had not lost a September home game since 1994. Anyone who has experienced the weather in South Florida during the time period knows that it can feel like you are trying to breathe in a hot, wet blanket. The Broncos will have a significant hurdle to cross during the fourth quarter if they want to walk out of Dolphins Stadium with a victory.
Key Players and Matchups:
Chris Chambers vs. Champ Bailey: Chris Chambers is the Dolphins number one playmaker on an offense that features a lot of playmakers at the skill positions, and there is no doubt that the Dolphins offense is at its best when Chambers is able to break loose and score some touchdowns. Bailey has the reputation of being the best corner in the league, but last season showed weakness in deep match ups against Chad Johnson and Jerry Porter. Chambers was not able to take advantage last season in Week 14, but now has a quarterback in Gus Frerotte who has the arm and the willingness to go deep consistently even if it means incompletions. Feeley always had the arm, but not the will to throw deep.
Dolphins Tight Ends vs. RDE Trevor Pryce: Scott Linehan’s offense relies on the tight ends to make one-on-one blocks with premier defensive ends on a regular basis. Randy McMichael can be a dominant blocker when he is concentrating properly, and the Dolphins picked up TE Will Heller from the Buccaneers to be a blocking specialist with hopefully more versatility in the passing game than Donald Lee. If the Dolphins’ tight ends are able to take on Pryce by themselves, it could open a world of possibilities in the running game and with play-action passes. If Pryce has a field day with the unit and requires consistent double-teams, the pressure on the middle of the offensive line may be too great to produce a consistent ground game.
Jason Taylor vs. The Denver OL: This truly is Jason Taylor’s time to shine. Normally a woefully understated speaker, Nick Saban dropped an uncharacteristic bomb when he said that Jason Taylor would be a Hall of Fame linebacker by now had he been playing in the 3-4 defense his entire career. While that is likely an exaggeration since Taylor would not be nearly as dangerous now in the 3-4 had he not perfected the art of the pass rush and added the weapons he did from the down position (such as the four-point stance), the point drives home just how much potential Taylor has to effect a game in this defense. Taylor has had some big games against the Broncos (almost single-handedly beating the Broncos in 2002), but he let LT Matt Lepsis get the better of him in their Week 14 match up during the 2004 season. Now Lepsis, and the rest of the Denver offensive line, will get a true taste of the pantheon of schemes that Nick Saban plans to run with Jason Taylor as his hatchet man.
Keith Traylor vs. Fatigue: Traylor has been more than the Dolphins could have expected at the nose tackle position in both the 4-3 and 3-4 alignments that the Dolphins run. He has been immovable, powerful, and sometimes even dominant in pass rush. At the beginning of training camp, the overweight Traylor threatened to melt in the Florida sun, he himself noting that he felt like he has “nothing left in the tank†playing in that sun. Obviously, he has improved. The big question is can he sustain for four quarters. Without him, the Dolphins will find it very difficult to stop the Broncos’ hallmark running game in the fourth quarter, and a collapsing run defense in the fourth quarter will lose you most close games.
Injuries:
LB Junior Seau, CB Travis Daniels (rookie), and P Matt Turk are all probable for the Dolphins.
TE Nate Jackson is questionable, while CB Champ Bailey and DE Courtney Brown are probable for the Broncos.
Keys to the Game:
Penalties & Errors: The Dolphins have a high propensity for penalties and other gaffes that destroy drives right now. They need to put that behind them now that the games are starting to count. It is, however, unlikely that they will do so. If the Dolphins can merely contain the penalties and stupid mistakes and not let them get completely out of hand, they will still have a decent chance in this game due to the heat.
Establish the Run: All football teams want to establish the run, but the Dolphins are not completing a high enough percentage of their deep passes right now to be able to afford an inconsistent and anemic running attack. A consistent running attack will allow the Dolphins to stay on the field long enough to get those deep plays working. Failure to establish the line of scrimmage will result in a much higher propensity for interceptions and general offensive failure. This will be a stiff, but not insurmountable test for the NFL’s worst offensive line from a year ago, now under the guidance of one of the best offensive line coaches in the game, Hudson Houck.
Snake Charming: Jake “The Snake†Plummer can be rattled if he consistently has defenders coming up on him and forcing him to play playground ball. Jake had his worst games of the year in 2004 when the defense was able to consistently apply pressure and bring Jake to the ground. Remember these numbers: 50.0, Plummer’s quarterback rating in the three games in which he was sacked multiple times, and 89.2, his quarterback rating in the eight games in which he was sacked zero times. Without consistent pressure, Mike Shanahan gets to design the use of Jake’s running talents. With consistent pressure, Jake Plummer is the one who decides if he has to run and when. The latter is far more likely to produce positive results for the Dolphins.
Background:
The Dolphins faced the Broncos at home in 2002 while Brian Griese was still quarterbacking for the team. Jason Taylor almost single-handedly won that game by coming up with two sacks for a loss of 30 yards, six solo tackles, a forced fumble that the Dolphins returned for a touchdown, and two passes defensed for good measure. During the teams’ 2004 rematch, the Dolphins lost a tight game 20-17 while Taylor had zero sacks.
The Dolphins come off an off-season in which they replaced a total of 26 of 53 players on the roster with completely new faces. Only 15 current Dolphins were wearing aqua and orange during the 2003 season, which was the last time the Dolphins had a winning record. Only eight players on the roster know what it felt like to go to the playoffs with the Dolphins in 2001.
Nick Saban has molded the defense into his own image of what a defense should look like. The players are on average one to two inches taller and 10 to 20 pounds heavier than their predecessors under Dave Wannstedt. A total 7 of 11 defensive starters did not start on the Dolphins in 2004. Yet, despite the turnover on the defensive side of the ball, the effectiveness of the unit has not gone down, judging by their performances in the preseason. The unit may even be stronger now that they are able to stop the run far more effectively than last season when they were missing Tim Bowens and Larry Chester for nearly the entire season and lacked a powerful tackle like Keith Traylor to replace them. Jason Taylor, who initially showed a few growing pains as he learned a new position, has displayed devastating potential in the new system now that he has gotten comfortable with it. Meanwhile, Kevin Carter is the Dolphins’ most valuable off-season acquisition, with his only serious challenger being Keith Traylor. Carter seems born for the role of defensive end in the 3-4 alignment, consistently dominating at the point of attack. While Taylor has the most potential for sheer explosion, Carter is much more consistently dominant in this defense.
If the Dolphins have managed to assemble an extremely talented starting defensive unit despite severe salary cap restrictions and the need to dump talented players like Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight, it only emphasizes what they were not able to assemble in their defensive depth. The Dolphins are extremely thin at defensive tackle, with no true replacement for Keith Traylor at nose tackle should he get injured or tired during a game. The Dolphins made an 11th hour maneuver to claim DT Tim McGill, who they had rated as the best defensive lineman in all of NFL Europe, off waivers from the Jets, but time will only tell if he is even a slightly less than mediocre substitute for Keith Traylor. Manuel Wright has showed the explosion and potential that led to his being named the best player of the supplemental draft, but he has also showed the lack of mental toughness and preparation that dropped him from a projected 2nd round selection to a 5th round selection. The Dolphins may not even keep Wright on the active roster during games. While the depth at defensive end and linebacker continue to be very strong, the depth at safety and cornerback is also waning. After Sam Madison, Reggie Howard, and rookie Travis Daniels, the Dolphins have virtually no experienced depth at corner as Mario Edwards turned out to be the same thing he was in Dallas and Tampa Bay, a bust. Travares Tillman continued his underachieving ways with the Dolphins and now has been replaced by Yeremiah Bell and Lance Schulters. Schulters could eventually solidify the unit significantly, but first he has to get comfortable with the complex defense that Saban runs since he had very little training camp time to learn it.
The Broncos, meanwhile, come off a questionable off-season in which they selected the controversial Maurice Clarett in the third round of the draft only to release him a few months later, signed the aged Jerry Rice only to have him retire after losing a spot on the depth chart to Darius Watts, transplanted 3/4ths of the horrible Cleveland Browns’ starting defensive line onto their own unit, and allowed talented players such as Kelly Herndon, Reggie Hayward, Dan Neil, Reuben Droughns, and Kenoy Kennedy to walk away from the team while not necessarily replacing them with equally-talented players. The Broncos got Ian Gold back from a disappointing injury-riddled stint with the Buccaneers, who asked him to play strong side linebacker rather than the weak side position he played previously with the Broncos.
During the preseason, the Broncos and Jake Plummer have shown the same quiet efficiency that allowed them to be one of the best offensive units of 2004. Plummer led three efficient outings in his first three preseason games before sitting out the fourth game in favor of backup Bradlee Van Pelt, who subsequently threw for 3 touchdowns. The Broncos continued to show success running the ball no matter who the runner was, and first round linebacker D.J. Williams, once hailed as a football player who could have made the transition to the NFL directly from high school, has looked pretty stellar along with backup defensive end John Engleberger. The Broncos would likely be better off putting Engleberger in at left defensive end in place of Courtney Brown, who is likely to be as injured and ineffective as he was in Cleveland, however in the first game of the season they likely will not pull the trigger on that kind of move.
Meanwhile the Dolphins have shown the same kind of inefficiency on offense during the preseason that landed them a 4-12 record. A.J. Feeley struggled against starting units, allowing Gus Frerotte to claim the role as lead quarterback, and just when Gus struggled enough to let Feeley back into the competition, A.J. reverted to his 2004 form throwing inaccurate passes that culminated in a trademark interception returned for a touchdown against the Falcons. The Dolphins have shown more promise running the ball with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, having good ground outings against the Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Falcons, but they have also shown inconsistency in offensive line blocking, which led to the most recent lineup change that returns four of the five starters from last year’s awful unit back to the forefront. The first string defense has been swarming and stellar, for the most part, however the special teams aside from the play of the specialists Wes Welker, Olindo Mare, and Matt Turk, has been ineffective and inconsistent. This may have led to the recent shake-ups along the bottom half of the roster with acquisitions like CB Eddie Jackson and CB Kiwaukee Thomas.
Prediction:
The Dolphins will show a lot of promise in this game, pulling off an upset victory over the Denver Broncos. The promise will fade fast when they travel up to New York in Week 2 and look a lot more like the 2004 Dolphins than the team that will beat the Broncos this week. When it all boils down to just stats on a piece of paper, the Broncos look far more intimidating than the Dolphins. Both teams historically like to get off to fast starts, but the late season momentum of both teams makes them more even than the paper story shows. Meanwhile, questionable off-season maneuvers along the Broncos’ defensive line unit will allow the Dolphins just enough space to crack open the ground game they need to get some points on the board despite the Broncos’ ferociously aggressive linebacker unit. D.J. Williams and Ian Gold are both susceptible to misdirection, and the Broncos do not have the cohesive disciplined defensive line unit to protect against the Dolphins’ misdirection-based running attack, which they used effectively against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. The Dolphins will gain ground yardage on WR slot end-around plays, the “90 flip†fake FB handoff flip toss to the outside RB, and general pulling and trapping run plays. This will allow their offense to stay on the field just long enough to complete a few deep passes to Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael, David Boston, and possibly Wes Welker.
From an historical perspective the Dolphins have a lot of reason to win this game. They are still the same team that practices in the same conditions that give them the best and most consistent season-related home field advantage in the entire NFL, even more consistent than the advantage teams like New England and Pittsburgh have in the home snow. The heat and humidity of South Florida will truly challenge the Broncos in ways they will not be able to surmount until they make some changes along their defensive line, unless they are able to take a big enough early lead that places the Dolphins in predictable passing situations. The Dolphins win this one, but are not likely to win many other ones in 2005.
Dolphins 23, Broncos 17
Comments: ckparrothead@yahoo.com
