Combine: The 40-Yard Hoax

[daywalker]

The 40 has taken on a life of its own over the years. For some players, it’s been a godsend, as their blistering times have dramatically raised their draft stock, thereby stuffing their pockets with extra wads of cash when it comes to signing that rookie deal. For others, it’s been a nightmare, as relatively plodding times have dropped them on draft boards, stripping them of literally millions of dollars along the way.

With the NFL’s decision makers pouring over these times with surgeon-like precision, I can’t help but think that the 40 is the reddest of all herrings.

For the most part, NFL teams have 3-4 years of game tapes on these players. On these tapes, the analysts get to see them performing the actual maneuvers they’ll perform once they get to the league, and see them in all sorts of conditions — in warm weather, in the snow; when they’re fully healthy, when they’re battling a stiff back; when they’re completely focused on the game, and after a breakup with their girlfriend.

This week, the NFL has provided these players with the most artificial of environments in which to perform. The RCA Dome ensures constant and ideal environmental conditions. Unless you’re player like Michigan QB Chad Henne or Texas WR Limas Sweed, both of whom are recuperating from significant injuries, prospects aren’t dealing with the aches and soreness that typically plague players throughout the football season. They run in T-shirts and shorts. The manufactured conditions couldn’t stray further from the reality of football.

Furthermore, hardly ever do players sprint 40 yards in a straight line in an actual game. Wide receivers might do it on rare occasions, but that’s about it. After the Combine, players are forever done with this event, but what they did in that four- to five-second window this weekend will have a substantial impact on where they rank when teams formulate their final draft boards.

The prospects’ opinions on the 40 this week in Indy were varied. Some agreed with me, such as Florida WR Andre Caldwell.

“I think it’s emphasized a little too much,†said Caldwell, who certainly doesn’t have an agenda to push, since he’s considered one of the faster players in this class. “I think it’s a lot of what you do on the football field. A lot of people play fast but don’t run as fast in the 40.â€

Others disagreed, such as Louisville WR Harry Douglas, who succinctly stated, “I think it’s good.â€

But all know the impact that it will have come draft weekend.

As for the importance it will have on their careers, history seems to suggest that 40-times mean very little.

Coming out of Mississippi Valley State, WR Jerry Rice ran in the mid-4.6s, then went on to set every significant receiving record in league history.

On the flip side, guys like Nebraska CB Fabian Washington, South Carolina WR Troy Williamson and 49ers TE Vernon Davis all shot up the draft boards because of their inspiring times, only to fail to meet expectations when they actually strapped on the pads and laced up the cleats.

PFW.com

 

[Majpain]

Fabian is decent. Williamson I would have never drafted, Davis is just football dumb. He is just a better Athlete than football player. I would put more stock in the positional drills and their work ethic.

 

[PogiRo]

What's Randy Moss' 40 yard dash? 4.2something right? The 40 is not the end all be all, but it's not a hoax either. Newsflash, the 40 does not tell if a receiver can catch the ball or if the receiver has the guts to run across the middle. Just like a corner's 40 won't show everything you need to know about the player's coverage skills.

 

[PALMA]

Jerry Rice had an incredible fast first step. For a receiver, as OLB, the 10 yard split is the key statistic. What was Jerry Rice's?

In general it is nice to see the 40 times when comparing ever potential prospect from the SAME year. It's a nice stat to have period, a relative measuring stick. Year to year comparison comes with its own set of errors. Even comparing Combine numbers to Pro Day numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.The 40 time is good when comparing athletes to each other recorded at the same place under the same conditions. Of course when the pads come on, players tend to get slower, some look more affected than others (Ronnie Brown anybody?).