RoninFin4
FinHeaven VIP
Commentary: Destiny in Hand for 4th Quarter
First of all Dolfans, I hope you enjoyed Thanksgiving – I know I did and the tryptophan has finally worn off. After getting beat by 20 at home, I had to wonder about this Dolphins team. The Greg Camarillo news didn’t help matters, and I resigned myself to try and focus on other things this week, knowing the Dolphins pretty much needed to win or else the playoffs would be history. It certainly wasn’t pretty, but a 16-12 win still counts, and the Miami Dolphins are 7-5. I remember writing a column earlier this year to urge fans to look at game-by-game improvement, and be happy if we won 4-6 games. Well the Dolphins showed me; and I am grateful they did.
The last time the Dolphins were in a position like this, this late in the season, I was a senior in high school. Fast forward four years, I’m a college grad, looking for a job in this economic madness, but finally, once again the Dolphins are relevant. And thank you to Mike Shanahan, Mike Tomlin, and Dick LeBeau. The Broncos and Steelers wins today, combined with Miami’s win have virtually given our beloved Dolphins their own destiny back in their own hands. And kudos to Dick LeBeau for showing everyone how to hit the Patriots in the mouth and shut-down that spread offense…a few drops by Moss and Gaffney didn’t hurt either!
We know how NFL coaches break the season into quarters; well we’re about to embark on the final four game block, three of which are on the road. The scenario at hand is this; if the Dolphins win out, they win the AFC East and are assured a home playoff game. We also have a luxury of still being in the wild-card chase, and having a fair amount of tie-breakers over the Patriots and Jets, should it come to that in a wild-card battle. I think Baltimore’s schedule will spell their untimely death, while Indy pretty much gets to waltz in (they play the Bengals and Lions in their next two games).
But that’s the beauty of this season; it’s going on Week 14 and the Miami Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt, a game off pace in the wild-card, and still just a game out in the division race with tie-breakers over the Patriots and Jets in their back pockets if they win out! All this after a 1-15 season – thanks go to Mr. H, Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and Tony Sparano. If you can take one thing away from the win today, for me it is this – the Dolphins went out on the road and won. They could have let that 48-28 loss to the Patriots be that kick in the nuts that sent them packing and crippled the season; No! Tony Sparano went out and got this team ready enough to find a way to win despite not having its #1 wide receiver, losing its starting left guard for the season, and having Ronnie and Ricky banged up. That win put the Dolphins’ destiny into their own hands, which is where it belongs.
Before I get too far ahead of myself and start rattling off playoff scenarios, tie-breakers, homefield advantage, etc…we’ve got to examine some things going into this Buffalo game north of the border.
Sure we beat Buffalo earlier in the season – but the same was said before we had another go ’round with the Patriots. This game makes or breaks the season. A win, and assuming we play like we should, the Dolphins will be 10-5 going into the finale in the Meadowlands (which hopefully yours truly will be in attendance for), but if we lose – I think our season pretty much ends, as we’d need a lot of help to get a wild-card berth.
Buffalo hasn’t played well at all since when we beat them, which seems like many moons ago, 25-16 back in week 8, and they desperately need this win to keep any kind of wild-card hope alive. I’m sure they’ll come out swinging, so it’s imperative we cannot start out like we did against the Rams. As a side note, I’m a big fan of deferring when we win the opening toss, but golly, aside from the Broncos and Raiders games, I feel like every team has driven the ball at will down the field and at least put up a 3 spot on us.
Some quick keys for the Buffalo game, and down the stretch:
M*A*S*H Unit Offensive Line
This is my first key to the game. With Thomas having been out since week 2, we’ve made due (or at least tried) with the likes of Ndukwe, Mathis, Alleman, McChesney all seeing time at RG at one point or another. Now with Jake Long basically playing on one leg, (btw he played Chris Long great - that sack was garbage, and I only noticed two times where CL got good pressure) and Justin Smiley out for the year with a broken leg and possible torn knee ligaments; there’s going to have to be some serious stepping up done here. The signing of C Al Johnson might be one of the most important moves all season. He’s going to have to see time one way or another whether that’s filling in at C and moving Satele to G, which I think is unlikely at this point in the year, or filling in at both left and right guard, he’s going to have to bring his lunch pail every day this week.
I’d expect another OL to be signed as 4th round rookie Shawn Murphy still isn’t ready for the big boys, though he’s getting the “Fred Evans” treatment as I guess Parcells and Ireland feel he’d get nabbed if placed on the practice squad…I still hate that draft pick, argh! Problem is who is out there at this time of the year? Evan Mathis and Kirk Barton both got scooped up by the Bengals. Of note, prior to the Jets game and facing Kris Jenkins, Satele doesn’t have to go up against a monster NG prior to that – that said, he’s still going to get Marcus Stroud and Glenn Dorsey in a three week span…just something to look at.
Ultimately, if this Miami Dolphin team is going anywhere, the running game needs another performance like it got against the Rams, even if it means Lousaka Polite and Patrick Cobbs have to come in and churn out yardage. But I do think it’s nice that neither Ronnie nor Ricky have much wear on their tires this late in the season, and by God if Peyton Hillis can run for over 100 yards against the Jets, we’d better have Ronnie and Ricky in a nice groove when that matchup comes around.
Pass Rush
It almost seems like the last time we had a pass-rush was that Buffalo game. Aside from Joey Porter, who struggled against a healthy Orlando Pace, we don’t seem to have anyone else who can get to the QB. Vonnie Holliday had a few flashes, Channing Crowder almost got there against the Rams, but if we have to rely on Will Allen blitzes to pressure QB’s down the stretch; our defense is in trouble, especially with the passing games that Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Jets possess.
Matt Roth, Charlie Anderson, Reggie Torbor, and Quentin Moses definitely need to step it up down the stretch. Roth made a couple nice plays against the run, which he’s usually good for, but he hasn’t gotten consistent pass-rush, in my opinion, since the San Diego game back in week 5.
That said, I certainly think upgrading the LB corps will be a key this offseason. A few guys to keep an eye one for when the time comes via free agency are Karlos Dansby of Arizona and Kevin Burnett of the Cowboys…obviously I’m sure the draft will produce one or two more, but that’s for a later discussion.
Nothing over the top
Obviously the Patriots had some success throwing some medium-range passes to Randy Moss, but he got most of his yardage after the catch, and we really haven’t seen a deep pass completed on our secondary since the Brandon Marshall offensive pass interference play against the Broncos. That said, Lee Evans, Josh Morgan, Dwayne Bowe, and the Coles & Cotchery duo are all more than capable of hurting us deep.
While we’ve been pretty good as of late in terms of secondary play, the mystery behind Jason Allen’s fractured hand is a bit troubling. How long is he out for? How serious is it? I haven’t seen/heard anything at the time I’m typing this out, so I guess that’s something to keep an eye on, especially if Joey Thomas is still going to be our nickel back. Color me confused as to why Nathan Jones hasn’t gotten any looks…after all he seems like he could be a good blitzer off the edge a la Will Allen this year, and Yeremiah Bell circa 2006 – I do recall him knocking a certain QB wearing #4 out of a game last year in Dallas, giving way to Aaron Rodgers.
The pass-rush improving will help the secondary out as well – if they can muster up some more pressure.
Ronnie Brown
I may very well be in the minority here, but I can’t stand the Wildcat formation. It was nice against the Patriots, Chargers, and Texans, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens pretty much killed it. I think it’s a viable package to have if it’s used correctly, probably no more than one or two plays a game. Obviously some kinks need to be worked out without Camarillo, and now Smiley, but the base offense is pretty good when they play well. That said, I think Henning over the past month as killed a number of drives reverting to the Wildcat as opposed to the base offense. We moved it down the field, and as soon as the Wildcat was run, we had to punt or settle for a FG. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it in a given drive.
Ronnie Brown’s carries need to increase. I like Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs, I really do. Even the occasional Lousaka Polite carry is good for a change of pace. But we all know Ronnie gets better the more touches he gets…please get him the ball more Dan! For the life of me, I can’t think of when we got him on a screen pass this year. Say what you want about Cam Cameron, but by golly he used Ronnie Brown terrifically, and with some inclement weather due ahead, we might have to get him the ball in some more conventional fashion more often.
Weather
Sunday’s forecast in Buffalo calls for a high of 32 and snow showers…oh wait, the game is in Toronto, in a closed dome. Lucky for us, too bad for the Bills as they won’t have their usual December weather as an ally, and with the inability to run the ball as of late, that really could have hindered us.
Still, road trips to Kansas City and the Big Apple are going to be outdoors in potentially inclement weather, and any postseason ventures are almost assuredly going to have to be on the road, and all those stadiums are outdoors. Just something to look forward to, or not.
Let’s hope that Tony Sparano can work his magic and get the Dolphins a little more focused this Sunday for the trip up north than they were for the venture in the Gateway City. Go Dolphins!
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