It has been a long time coming, but after a year’s wait and a big scare from the Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons will welcome the Miami Heat into Motown Tuesday night as they look to defend their Eastern Conference championship. The routes each team took in the conference semifinals were very different; the Heat handily took care of the New Jersey Nets in five games despite getting bombed in the opener, while the Pistons jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Cleveland before losing three straight, only to salvage the series with two more victories. But in a series that most pundits assumed was a sure thing since last June, this is no repeat; Miami brings a reformed squad that was created entirely to beat the Pistons to the table.
Before learning what will happen in this series, Pat Riley should send some flowers to Lawrence Frank, because the 100-88 whooping Miami endured on its home court woke it up like it had been sleepwalking for the previous 88 games in the 2005-06 season. Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade led the Heat to four straight victories, in all of which Miami scored more than 100 points. This is no coincidence. At 8-3 in the playoffs, seven of the wins have come when Miami topped the century mark, whereas the most points recorded in any of the losses was 90. Obviously, the Heat scored 100-plus in all the New Jersey victories, but only after being embarrassed on Bayside by the Nets.
Despite Detroit’s sparkling 64-18 regular season record (3-1 vs. Miami), the Heat do feel they have a good shot at beating Flip Saunders’ squad because the matchups are more favorable than in previous series. The Heat had a hard time stopping big men with a perimeter game all season long - precisely why Miami will hate to see Dirk Nowitzki and Dallas or Shawn Marion and Phoenix in the finals should they get there - but Detroit plays a more traditional brand of basketball, one in which quick passes, solid screens, and mid-range jumpers combine with military precision on defense to smother opponents. The x-factor in the series is the small forward position; Detroit’s Tayshaun Prince can wreak havoc with his length, while Miami has searched for consistency from offseason acquisitions Antoine Walker and James Posey since October. The duo struck gold against New Jersey, with Posey finally taking over Eddie Jones’ role as the perimeter defender and Walker averaging 19 ppg in the final three games of the series. Prince, in the meantime, was content to play fourth wheel and average 14 points and 4 rebounds in the Cavs series, all the while preventing LeBron James from going postal, holding him to 1-9 shooting in the second half of Game 7.
One of the many facets Detroit trumps New Jersey is depth. Especially after the drug-related loss of Cliff Robinson, the Nets were relegated to playing John Thomas on O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning, while only LaMond Murray and Jacque Vaughn provided any punch from the bench. Detroit, though, has big bodies aplenty, from Kelvin Cato to Dale Davis to, most importantly, Antonio McDyess, and that is ignoring the brothers Wallace. Guard play from Lindsey Hunter, Tony Delk, and Carlos Delfino is stronger than Miami’s Derek Anderson-Gary Payton combo. While Detroit’s bench might not be overly talented, they at least have depth to counterbalance Miami. Mourning is still working his way back into game shape after tearing his calf, coincidentally, against the Pistons in March. A strong showing from him would vastly improve Miami’s chances.
Yet bench play could be rendered irrelevant if Shaq spends all of his time on it. Miami ran into trouble against Chicago when O’Neal had to sit down and can not afford to lose the Big Aristotle for extended periods of time. Udonis Haslem and Zo are unbeatable in their tenacity and passion for the game - and their defense and rebounding isn’t half bad either - but Rasheed Wallace will run both out of the gym with Shaq out for long periods of time.
Believe it or not, to this point, Chauncey Billups’ name has not come up and Wade’s but once, but that is only because their production is pretty much a sure thing. Wade has begun to terrorize teams even more with a consistent 22-footer, even mixing in a few treys to complement his slicing penetration and uncanny ability to draw fouls (a task he needs to accomplish against Big Ben). Billups is going to get his 19 and 9 nightly. Riley and Saunders also cancel each other out; even if there seemed to be an advantage, rookie coach Avery Johnson defeated wily vet Gregg Popovich in the Lone Star Showdown, so it is fairly certain this series will be decided within the lines.
It’s prediction time. Can Miami bring together its pure talent to become the juggernaut it can be? Will their time off produce rest or rust? Can O’Neal perform like the Los Angeles unmovable object as opposed to the slightly worn-down Miami version? Will Detroit’s consistency erode Miami’s potential? In the classic duel, will the Pistons' defense shut down the Heat's offense?
Last year, Miami would have won had Shaq’s thigh not been bruised and Wade’s ribs not been strained; the Heat still came close to pulling off the victory. Yet this is a different Miami team, one that at its best is the best team in the NBA and one that at its usual is good enough only to beat the Chicagos and New Jerseys of the world. Still, O’Neal realizes his window is closing, obvious due to his willingness to dive to the floor to corral loose balls like he did in the Nets series. When the biggest man on the court has the biggest appetite, Detroit will have to feed him. Combine this with the fact that Detroit had to play a grueling 7-game series while the Heat got to rest some of their weary bones, and the Heat take this series in 7.
