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The Dolphins Offseason Primer, Part 7
By Phil Unwin
Two to go, first the secondary, then special teams.
The Current Situation:
As good as Miami’s run defense and pass rush were in 2006, the pass defense was that bad. A first glance of the stats shows a pretty good pass defense: fifth overall in passing yards allowed, and fifth in points as well. However, the Dolphins allowed opposing quarterbacks an 84.4 QB rating, 21st in the NFL (and notably, quite a bit higher than any Miami passer was able to do), had 8 interceptions (31st) and allowed 22 TD passes (20th). Most Dolphin fans (myself included) would kill to have a QB with a 22-8 TD-INT ratio. The fact that the Dolphins finished 5th overall in points allowed is a testament to how effective the Dolphins were at keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone.
So it doesn’t take a genius to see that the defensive backfield is in a state of disrepair. The question is, what’s to be done about it?
Part of the answer may simply lie in good health. Will Allen and Travis Daniels, who were projected to be the team’s starting corners, were hampered by injuries for much of the season. Allen missed one game and parts of a few others. Daniels missed four games and was slowed for a huge part of the season with his foot injury. This forced the team to play Andre Goodman a lot more than they would have liked, since Goodman was projected as a nickel corner. In one particularly bleak moment, when both Daniels and Goodman were hurt, the Dolphins ended up with Eddie Jackson covering Lavernaeus Coles one on one, with the predictable result: touchdown, Jets.
It’s said that the Dolphins have, right now, three #2 cornerbacks: Allen, Daniels and Goodman, without a true #1. There’s some validity to that. The book on Allen is that he’s very good in short and intermediate coverage, but can be beaten downfield despite his good speed (as a Giant, he struggled mightily against Santana Moss in 2005, and had a fine game against Houston’s Andre Johnson in 2006, but was beaten a few times). He also has less-than-stellar hands, though he is a fine tackler for a corner. At the moment, Allen is the best corner on the team, and absent another addition, will have to pass for a #1 for 2007.
Daniels has near-ideal size in a cornerback: 6’1, 192 pounds. He’s a little short in the top-end speed department and can be beaten deep if exposed. In his rookie season, Daniels was stellar in the short-to-intermediate routes, but 2006 was basically a wash for him. He should be a better tackler than he is, but he’s still pretty good in run support, like Allen. Daniels lost his starting job in 2006, but figures to be gunning to get it back in 2007.
Goodman has the top-end speed that Allen and Daniels lack, and can run with the faster receivers in the league; a plus for a team that has to play Lee Evans and Lavernaeus Coles twice per year. He’s not good in run support and misses some tackles, but played well when pressed into service in 2006, and figures to compete for a starting job opposite Allen. He’s either an adequate starter or an above-average nickel back.
Shirdonya Mitchell is, as of this moment, the fourth corner and is strictly a developmental player who will make the roster as a special teamer, if he makes it at all.
Eddie Jackson and Michael Lehan are free agents who may be brought back for depth, but are not counted on as a significant part of the team’s plans.
At safety, the situation is far more confused.
The discussion of the safety position begins with 2006 first round pick Jason Allen. Allen’s rookie year was a bust in every possible way. A lengthy holdout prevented him from valuable time in training camp, and the resulting setback carried over into the season. Allen often looked completely lost on the field but got more playing time in the season’s second half. Physically, Allen is everything you want from a safety: fast, quick, hard-hitting and big enough to work as the 8th man in the box. He’s also a bright kid with a good attitude. Despite a rough rookie season, Allen is by far and away the most physically gifted defensive back on the Miami roster, with a good head on his shoulders, and thus will be given every chance to succeed. It’s worth noting that rookie defensive backs seldom make an impact; much like their counterparts, wide receivers, their position is a tremendous adjustment from the college game to the pros. After quarterbacks, wide receivers and DBs probably have the most difficult transition from pro to college ball.
Renaldo Hill is a converted corner who mostly played strong safety in 2006. Hill is something of a ‘tweener; he lacks the top-end speed you want from a free safety, but isn’t quite big enough to be the prototype strong safety. Still, he’s a relentless worker who is strong in run support and seldom makes a mistake.
Jack Hunt and Norman LeJeune are little more than roster depth at this point and won’t see much time except in an emergency.
Travares Tillman is a free agent who will likely not be brought back. Tillman has all the skills to be a quality NFL safety, but has never quite put it together. At this point, after six years in the league, it’s probably not going to happen.
Yeremiah Bell is a fan favorite because of his fantastic work ethic and his rise from little regarded special teamer to starting safety; a direct product of said work ethic. Bell is a very good blitzer, and pretty good in run support. He’s a sure tackler and, after he took over the starting job, was arguably Miami’s best defensive back. He has better physical skills than Hill does, though he’s not elite in any particular category. Bell is a restricted free agent with a second round tender. It seems unlikely that anyone will be willing to hand over a second round pick for him, so Bell will probably be back in 2007.
Cameron Worrell was recently signed. Worrell is, at least in theory, a safety. In reality, Worrell’s lone contribution to the team will be as a special teamer, which he does quite well. However, he probably won’t play much apart from kick and punt coverage.
There are no significant cap issues to speak of; in fact, all the defensive backs currently on the roster combine for only a $9.5M cap hit.
The Alternatives:
The free agent market is not especially promising. There were two shutdown corners on the free agent market. One, Nate Clements, has already signed a mammoth contract with the 49ers. The other is Asante Samuel, in whom the Dolphins have shown no interest thus far. That’s probably because he was given the franchise tag. There is a tremendous dropoff after those two, and one could make the argument that there’s not a corner on the free agent market (apart from Samuel) who would definitely be an upgrade for the Dolphins.
One player on the market that I think could be worthwhile is Indianapolis’s Nick Harper. Harper is an unrestricted free agent who has the hands and the ball skills that Miami’s current group of cornerbacks seems to lack. He can also stay with most receivers downfield, and though his size is a bit of a problem, the Dolphins have Will Allen and Travis Daniels available to cover bigger receivers in the red zone. One caveat: Harper will be 33 at the start of the season and could be losing some of his speed.
Apart from Samuel and Harper, I do not see a cornerback on the free agent market who would be anything more than a dime corner for the Dolphins.
The safety position is more interesting. Assuming Bell is resigned, the Dolphins might not make anything more than a depth signing in free agency. Jason Allen will likely be given every chance to earn a starting job from day one of training camp, be it Bell’s or Hill’s. However, Allen could also move to corner, a position he played a fair amount in college. This would have the upside of moving him to a more valuable position, but the downside of setting his development back a year, and of allowing the lack of speed in Miami’s secondary to be exposed once again. He has the top-end speed to cover up for the shortcomings possessed by the cornerbacks, something no one else on the roster does.
The Dolphins could also elect to let Bell walk and pursue Ken Hamlin, who is head and shoulders above the other safeties on the market. Hamlin has the versatility the Dolphins would surely like, as he’s more than capable of playing either free or strong safety with great skill. The Seahawks just signed Deon Grant to a contract (6 years, $30 million) that’s absolutely insane for any safety apart from Ronnie Lott or Rod Woodson in their respective primes. (Of course, in Woodson’s prime, he was a corner, but never mind that.) Grant’s signing will likely drive up the price tag for Hamlin, who is better than Grant by any reasonable measure, and thus could be cost-prohibitive for the Dolphins.
In the draft, the Dolphins could be looking at a defensive back at #9. Even if good health from the cornerbacks would solve a lot of problems, the group was not good in 2006 and therefore ripe for a potential upgrade. Unfortunately, the draft class is underwhelming, at least in round 1. CB Leon Hall has been mentioned as a possible pick at #9, to which I can only express my complete and utter disgust. I watched a lot of Michigan football in 2006 and have concluded that Hall is absolutely unworthy of such draft status. One need only watch the Ohio State and USC games to see Hall’s shortcomings on display. Still, he remains the best corner on the board, even if his lack of top speed will be a problem in the pros. Pitt’s Darrelle Revis is another solid, all-around guy who also lacks great top speed, but his stock has been rising a bit, although probably not to the point where he should be a serious consideration at #9.
The Dolphins’ two picks in the second round might prove a better place to find cornerback help. Texas’ Aaron Ross is tall, fast, quick and plays with good instincts and could be a target at #40. He can also return punts quite well. He doesn’t play as physical as he probably should, but again, that’s less a problem in Miami’s secondary than the lack of speed. California’s Daymeion Hughes also is a bit short on top speed, but is a definite playmaker, and a defense that managed just 8 INTs could use that. Fresno State’s Marcus McCauley is a boom-or-bust pick with tremendous size and speed who might be there at the end of round 2, as might Arkansas’ Chris Houston, though Houston is rising quickly up the draft board and the Phins might have to take him at #40, or even earlier.
In later rounds, Florida’s Ryan Smith might be a worthwhile target. Smith’s small size means he might never be more than a nickel corner, but he has tremendous speed and ball skills.
At safety, there’s a tremendous push from our Finheaveners to pick Reggie Nelson at #9. Though I haven’t taken a poll, I would estimate that after Brady Quinn, Nelson is the most popular first round option at #9. I can understand the logic here: the Dolphins need a playmaker in the secondary and Nelson is a tremendous playmaker who is, by any definition, an excellent safety prospect. (It also doesn’t hurt that if you’re on Finheaven.com, there’s at least a 25% chance you’re a Florida Gators fan.) And depending on who you ask, either he or LSU’s Laron Landry are the best in the field. The problem with this approach is that, quite frankly, Nelson’s not worth the #9 pick in the draft. No safety is. Even though Nelson had a tremendous workout at the Gators’ pro day, the fact remains that safety is not a premier position, and therefore should not be considered for a top 10 pick except in the most limited circumstances. The Dolphins have plenty of other needs, Nelson probably won’t be the best player available at 9, and finally, the team just spent a first round pick on a safety last year. (The arguments against Landry are the same.) Overinvesting in QBs is one thing, overinvesting in safeties is quite another.
Allowing Allen to develop and compete for a starting job would be the more prudent course of action, but if the Dolphins wanted to spend a first-day pick on a safety, there are a couple who would likely be available in the second round who would fit well. Texas’ Michael Griffin is a fine free safety who makes a ton of plays and has a good head for the game. Miami’s Brandon Meriweather is also a good free safety with speed whose stock is probably down because of the FIU brawl, despite the fact that he had been considered a good citizen up to that point.
Virginia Tech’s Aaron Rouse might be a mid-round steal. Rouse is a physical freak: he weighs 218 pounds, hits like a Peterbilt, and runs a 4.33 40. However, he needs some coaching up, and lacks the quickness to be an ideal safety in coverage. TCU’s Marvin White could be a good example of cheap speed; he runs a 4.45 40 and will probably be available in the 5th or 6th round.
The Final Assessment:
Everyone agrees that Miami’s secondary needs improvement, but how to do it is another question. The Dolphins likely aren’t going to find the #1 shutdown corner that would cure so many ills, unless they want to pay a king’s ransom in money and draft picks for Asante Samuel. No one in the draft jumps out as such a guy. But if the Dolphins got healthy seasons from Will Allen and Travis Daniels, that might be enough to make a big improvement, even if neither are great playmakers.
At safety, Jason Allen could solve the team’s problems, so long as he’s up to speed from day one, but a new regime may be quick to give up on a Nick Saban draft pick, and it wouldn’t be stunning for the front office to snag Nelson or Landry at #9. This would represent a tremendous overinvestment in a less important position, but it is a possibility.
If Will Allen and Daniels stay healthy, and Jason Allen can adapt to the NFL, the Dolphins will likely have at least an average secondary, if not better. And with the front seven shaping up as well as it is, an average secondary might be all they need. Still, they have to prepare themselves for the possibility that Jason Allen was a bust, and at least take a swing at finding that elusive “shutdown cornerâ€Â, and so I expect the Dolphins will use a first day pick somewhere in the secondary, perhaps adding a developmental type or special teamer/depth guy on day two. Apart from resigning Bell, don’t look for any significant movement in free agency.
By Phil Unwin
Two to go, first the secondary, then special teams.
The Current Situation:
As good as Miami’s run defense and pass rush were in 2006, the pass defense was that bad. A first glance of the stats shows a pretty good pass defense: fifth overall in passing yards allowed, and fifth in points as well. However, the Dolphins allowed opposing quarterbacks an 84.4 QB rating, 21st in the NFL (and notably, quite a bit higher than any Miami passer was able to do), had 8 interceptions (31st) and allowed 22 TD passes (20th). Most Dolphin fans (myself included) would kill to have a QB with a 22-8 TD-INT ratio. The fact that the Dolphins finished 5th overall in points allowed is a testament to how effective the Dolphins were at keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone.
So it doesn’t take a genius to see that the defensive backfield is in a state of disrepair. The question is, what’s to be done about it?
Part of the answer may simply lie in good health. Will Allen and Travis Daniels, who were projected to be the team’s starting corners, were hampered by injuries for much of the season. Allen missed one game and parts of a few others. Daniels missed four games and was slowed for a huge part of the season with his foot injury. This forced the team to play Andre Goodman a lot more than they would have liked, since Goodman was projected as a nickel corner. In one particularly bleak moment, when both Daniels and Goodman were hurt, the Dolphins ended up with Eddie Jackson covering Lavernaeus Coles one on one, with the predictable result: touchdown, Jets.
It’s said that the Dolphins have, right now, three #2 cornerbacks: Allen, Daniels and Goodman, without a true #1. There’s some validity to that. The book on Allen is that he’s very good in short and intermediate coverage, but can be beaten downfield despite his good speed (as a Giant, he struggled mightily against Santana Moss in 2005, and had a fine game against Houston’s Andre Johnson in 2006, but was beaten a few times). He also has less-than-stellar hands, though he is a fine tackler for a corner. At the moment, Allen is the best corner on the team, and absent another addition, will have to pass for a #1 for 2007.
Daniels has near-ideal size in a cornerback: 6’1, 192 pounds. He’s a little short in the top-end speed department and can be beaten deep if exposed. In his rookie season, Daniels was stellar in the short-to-intermediate routes, but 2006 was basically a wash for him. He should be a better tackler than he is, but he’s still pretty good in run support, like Allen. Daniels lost his starting job in 2006, but figures to be gunning to get it back in 2007.
Goodman has the top-end speed that Allen and Daniels lack, and can run with the faster receivers in the league; a plus for a team that has to play Lee Evans and Lavernaeus Coles twice per year. He’s not good in run support and misses some tackles, but played well when pressed into service in 2006, and figures to compete for a starting job opposite Allen. He’s either an adequate starter or an above-average nickel back.
Shirdonya Mitchell is, as of this moment, the fourth corner and is strictly a developmental player who will make the roster as a special teamer, if he makes it at all.
Eddie Jackson and Michael Lehan are free agents who may be brought back for depth, but are not counted on as a significant part of the team’s plans.
At safety, the situation is far more confused.
The discussion of the safety position begins with 2006 first round pick Jason Allen. Allen’s rookie year was a bust in every possible way. A lengthy holdout prevented him from valuable time in training camp, and the resulting setback carried over into the season. Allen often looked completely lost on the field but got more playing time in the season’s second half. Physically, Allen is everything you want from a safety: fast, quick, hard-hitting and big enough to work as the 8th man in the box. He’s also a bright kid with a good attitude. Despite a rough rookie season, Allen is by far and away the most physically gifted defensive back on the Miami roster, with a good head on his shoulders, and thus will be given every chance to succeed. It’s worth noting that rookie defensive backs seldom make an impact; much like their counterparts, wide receivers, their position is a tremendous adjustment from the college game to the pros. After quarterbacks, wide receivers and DBs probably have the most difficult transition from pro to college ball.
Renaldo Hill is a converted corner who mostly played strong safety in 2006. Hill is something of a ‘tweener; he lacks the top-end speed you want from a free safety, but isn’t quite big enough to be the prototype strong safety. Still, he’s a relentless worker who is strong in run support and seldom makes a mistake.
Jack Hunt and Norman LeJeune are little more than roster depth at this point and won’t see much time except in an emergency.
Travares Tillman is a free agent who will likely not be brought back. Tillman has all the skills to be a quality NFL safety, but has never quite put it together. At this point, after six years in the league, it’s probably not going to happen.
Yeremiah Bell is a fan favorite because of his fantastic work ethic and his rise from little regarded special teamer to starting safety; a direct product of said work ethic. Bell is a very good blitzer, and pretty good in run support. He’s a sure tackler and, after he took over the starting job, was arguably Miami’s best defensive back. He has better physical skills than Hill does, though he’s not elite in any particular category. Bell is a restricted free agent with a second round tender. It seems unlikely that anyone will be willing to hand over a second round pick for him, so Bell will probably be back in 2007.
Cameron Worrell was recently signed. Worrell is, at least in theory, a safety. In reality, Worrell’s lone contribution to the team will be as a special teamer, which he does quite well. However, he probably won’t play much apart from kick and punt coverage.
There are no significant cap issues to speak of; in fact, all the defensive backs currently on the roster combine for only a $9.5M cap hit.
The Alternatives:
The free agent market is not especially promising. There were two shutdown corners on the free agent market. One, Nate Clements, has already signed a mammoth contract with the 49ers. The other is Asante Samuel, in whom the Dolphins have shown no interest thus far. That’s probably because he was given the franchise tag. There is a tremendous dropoff after those two, and one could make the argument that there’s not a corner on the free agent market (apart from Samuel) who would definitely be an upgrade for the Dolphins.
One player on the market that I think could be worthwhile is Indianapolis’s Nick Harper. Harper is an unrestricted free agent who has the hands and the ball skills that Miami’s current group of cornerbacks seems to lack. He can also stay with most receivers downfield, and though his size is a bit of a problem, the Dolphins have Will Allen and Travis Daniels available to cover bigger receivers in the red zone. One caveat: Harper will be 33 at the start of the season and could be losing some of his speed.
Apart from Samuel and Harper, I do not see a cornerback on the free agent market who would be anything more than a dime corner for the Dolphins.
The safety position is more interesting. Assuming Bell is resigned, the Dolphins might not make anything more than a depth signing in free agency. Jason Allen will likely be given every chance to earn a starting job from day one of training camp, be it Bell’s or Hill’s. However, Allen could also move to corner, a position he played a fair amount in college. This would have the upside of moving him to a more valuable position, but the downside of setting his development back a year, and of allowing the lack of speed in Miami’s secondary to be exposed once again. He has the top-end speed to cover up for the shortcomings possessed by the cornerbacks, something no one else on the roster does.
The Dolphins could also elect to let Bell walk and pursue Ken Hamlin, who is head and shoulders above the other safeties on the market. Hamlin has the versatility the Dolphins would surely like, as he’s more than capable of playing either free or strong safety with great skill. The Seahawks just signed Deon Grant to a contract (6 years, $30 million) that’s absolutely insane for any safety apart from Ronnie Lott or Rod Woodson in their respective primes. (Of course, in Woodson’s prime, he was a corner, but never mind that.) Grant’s signing will likely drive up the price tag for Hamlin, who is better than Grant by any reasonable measure, and thus could be cost-prohibitive for the Dolphins.
In the draft, the Dolphins could be looking at a defensive back at #9. Even if good health from the cornerbacks would solve a lot of problems, the group was not good in 2006 and therefore ripe for a potential upgrade. Unfortunately, the draft class is underwhelming, at least in round 1. CB Leon Hall has been mentioned as a possible pick at #9, to which I can only express my complete and utter disgust. I watched a lot of Michigan football in 2006 and have concluded that Hall is absolutely unworthy of such draft status. One need only watch the Ohio State and USC games to see Hall’s shortcomings on display. Still, he remains the best corner on the board, even if his lack of top speed will be a problem in the pros. Pitt’s Darrelle Revis is another solid, all-around guy who also lacks great top speed, but his stock has been rising a bit, although probably not to the point where he should be a serious consideration at #9.
The Dolphins’ two picks in the second round might prove a better place to find cornerback help. Texas’ Aaron Ross is tall, fast, quick and plays with good instincts and could be a target at #40. He can also return punts quite well. He doesn’t play as physical as he probably should, but again, that’s less a problem in Miami’s secondary than the lack of speed. California’s Daymeion Hughes also is a bit short on top speed, but is a definite playmaker, and a defense that managed just 8 INTs could use that. Fresno State’s Marcus McCauley is a boom-or-bust pick with tremendous size and speed who might be there at the end of round 2, as might Arkansas’ Chris Houston, though Houston is rising quickly up the draft board and the Phins might have to take him at #40, or even earlier.
In later rounds, Florida’s Ryan Smith might be a worthwhile target. Smith’s small size means he might never be more than a nickel corner, but he has tremendous speed and ball skills.
At safety, there’s a tremendous push from our Finheaveners to pick Reggie Nelson at #9. Though I haven’t taken a poll, I would estimate that after Brady Quinn, Nelson is the most popular first round option at #9. I can understand the logic here: the Dolphins need a playmaker in the secondary and Nelson is a tremendous playmaker who is, by any definition, an excellent safety prospect. (It also doesn’t hurt that if you’re on Finheaven.com, there’s at least a 25% chance you’re a Florida Gators fan.) And depending on who you ask, either he or LSU’s Laron Landry are the best in the field. The problem with this approach is that, quite frankly, Nelson’s not worth the #9 pick in the draft. No safety is. Even though Nelson had a tremendous workout at the Gators’ pro day, the fact remains that safety is not a premier position, and therefore should not be considered for a top 10 pick except in the most limited circumstances. The Dolphins have plenty of other needs, Nelson probably won’t be the best player available at 9, and finally, the team just spent a first round pick on a safety last year. (The arguments against Landry are the same.) Overinvesting in QBs is one thing, overinvesting in safeties is quite another.
Allowing Allen to develop and compete for a starting job would be the more prudent course of action, but if the Dolphins wanted to spend a first-day pick on a safety, there are a couple who would likely be available in the second round who would fit well. Texas’ Michael Griffin is a fine free safety who makes a ton of plays and has a good head for the game. Miami’s Brandon Meriweather is also a good free safety with speed whose stock is probably down because of the FIU brawl, despite the fact that he had been considered a good citizen up to that point.
Virginia Tech’s Aaron Rouse might be a mid-round steal. Rouse is a physical freak: he weighs 218 pounds, hits like a Peterbilt, and runs a 4.33 40. However, he needs some coaching up, and lacks the quickness to be an ideal safety in coverage. TCU’s Marvin White could be a good example of cheap speed; he runs a 4.45 40 and will probably be available in the 5th or 6th round.
The Final Assessment:
Everyone agrees that Miami’s secondary needs improvement, but how to do it is another question. The Dolphins likely aren’t going to find the #1 shutdown corner that would cure so many ills, unless they want to pay a king’s ransom in money and draft picks for Asante Samuel. No one in the draft jumps out as such a guy. But if the Dolphins got healthy seasons from Will Allen and Travis Daniels, that might be enough to make a big improvement, even if neither are great playmakers.
At safety, Jason Allen could solve the team’s problems, so long as he’s up to speed from day one, but a new regime may be quick to give up on a Nick Saban draft pick, and it wouldn’t be stunning for the front office to snag Nelson or Landry at #9. This would represent a tremendous overinvestment in a less important position, but it is a possibility.
If Will Allen and Daniels stay healthy, and Jason Allen can adapt to the NFL, the Dolphins will likely have at least an average secondary, if not better. And with the front seven shaping up as well as it is, an average secondary might be all they need. Still, they have to prepare themselves for the possibility that Jason Allen was a bust, and at least take a swing at finding that elusive “shutdown cornerâ€Â, and so I expect the Dolphins will use a first day pick somewhere in the secondary, perhaps adding a developmental type or special teamer/depth guy on day two. Apart from resigning Bell, don’t look for any significant movement in free agency.
