Commentary: Week 11 Gambling Corner | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Commentary: Week 11 Gambling Corner

Auburn, Iowa, Giants and the Chargers look good to me too. Good luck

Man i love this sport:evil:
 
Right now I like the following:

Carolina (-3) over Chicago
Washington (-5.5) over Oakland (bought half a point)
Miami (+2) over Cleveland
Over 47 Points for the Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati Game
Under 49.5 Points for the Arizona vs. St. Louis Game


Last week I liked:

49ers (+13) over Bears (won)
Vikings (+9.5) over NY Giants (won)
Texans (+17.5) over Colts (won)
NY Jets (+9.5) over Panthers (lost)
Packers (+9.5) over Falcons (won)
Over 41 Points for the Philadelphia vs. Dallas MNF Game (push)
 
interesting. i've been hearing on one of the local tampa stations (620) how you may be seeing some of the spreads get bigger. this is because many favorites have been covering and most people bet the favs. the guy devotes a decent chunk of his shows to betting

im not a better but i thought i'd pass it along to those who may find it useful
 
Maynard said:
interesting. i've been hearing on one of the local tampa stations (620) how you may be seeing some of the spreads get bigger. this is because many favorites have been covering and most people bet the favs. the guy devotes a decent chunk of his shows to betting

im not a better but i thought i'd pass it along to those who may find it useful
Click to expand...
duemig is great
 
kastofsna120 said:
duemig is great
Click to expand...

yeah. wednesday, i almost went to see the michael clayton show cause it was at a Bealls near me. some restaraunt was cooking up some steaks, but i got lazy and drank beer at my house :D
 
Maynard said:
interesting. i've been hearing on one of the local tampa stations (620) how you may be seeing some of the spreads get bigger. this is because many favorites have been covering and most people bet the favs. the guy devotes a decent chunk of his shows to betting

im not a better but i thought i'd pass it along to those who may find it useful
Click to expand...

Well, last week, I can say I'm certainly glad for that new phenomenon of bigger spreads. I saw the spreads for the week and couldn't believe how wide they were. 4 out of my 5 picks ended up beating the wide spread.

I mean, who in their right mind could justify a 13 point spread for the Chicago Bears over the San Francisco 49ers??? I know the 49ers were starting Cody Pickett, but this is still the Bears offense here and they didn't even have Thomas Jones. Plus the 49ers were at home. That one made like NO sense to me. I also thought the Packers had generally shown too much fight recently to justify 9.5 point underdogs...especially with Atlanta coming off a close win where they got off easy cuz of Miami's bad play calling. The Texans covering the 17.5 spread that was my own gut, the old letdown game for the Colts I was predicting after their big monkey-off-the-back win against the Pats. I didn't have especially strong feelings about the Vikings or Jets, but in general I just don't like huge wide 10 point spreads...and one came through, one didn't...but that still made me 4 of 5.

This week the one that really stands out to me is Carolina only -3 over the Bears. I had to do a double-take. I know its in Chicago, but the Bears have NO offense and the team in general achieved their 6-3 record against a group of teams that collectively have a win percentage of .400, among the easiest schedules in the league. Their D is good enough to get some of those wins, but not good enough to stop the Panthers, and CERTAINLY their O isn't good enough to score points on the Panthers D. This one was ridiculous to me.

And then you got two offensive powerhouses in Indianapolis and Cincinnati going against each other, yet the over/under only at 47, while the over/under for the Arizone-St. Louis game is 49.5??? I understand the thinking, Arizona-St. Louis features bad defenses, but they are also inconsistent offenses, especially lately with St. Louis. With Cincinnati vs Indy this is going to be a QB showoff...Carson and Peyton putting pressure on each other with deeeeep passes.

Washington -6 over Oakland...I have a general theme in that I do not like teams that are going on cross-country trips. As far as I know this is being played in Washington, and I generally just see flat days from cross-country teams especially bad ones (badly coached ones).

And as for Miami, I hate picking them in general cuz it already hurts when they lose but if you picked them in the gambling corner and they lose its like breaking your heart then kicking you in the nuts. But, I've also successfully predicted the outcome of 7 of 9 miami games (i refused to predict last week, my prediction is that Miami-NE splits, but I didnt know the ordering). I have a great feeling about the Cleveland game. That's all I can say about it.
 
actually... i've found that the spreads have been really conservative (low) for favorites this year moreso than most... most successful sports bettors (i believe, and perhaps Awsi can confirm) TEND to lean towards dogs for longterm success...

however, a lot of games that would be +6-7, have really been hovering closer to +3-4... and a LOT LOT LOT of favorites are covering this year... i could be totally wrong, but it sure seems like this is a year to lay the points... which is odd, because this is exactly what the casual better tends to do...
 
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