Commentary: Week 6 Gambling Corner | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Commentary: Week 6 Gambling Corner

This week I took the Bengals (-3) over the Titans like you had also. I also took the Dolphins (+4.5) over the Buccaneers because I'm a homer and I like to cheer extra hard for the Fins. However, I'd like to hear your thoughts on my final bet of the daytime games. I took the under (32.5) of the Jets vs Bills game. I see this game ending something like 17-10 MAXIMUM. Let me know.
 
hey mikeo, gl with your plays. these are my plays



Dallas -3 -105

Detroit -1 -105

Saints +5.5 -105

Minnesota +3 - 115

Chiefs -5.5 -105

Titans +140 ML

Ravens -6 -105

Dolphins +175 ML

Denver -3 -115

Buffalo -3 -125

Oakland +110

OAK/SD over 50.5

SEA -9
 
I got the same NFL picks but taking the 4.5 points instead of betting the over.
 
im goin with the ML. **** the 4.5 i say, even if they cover it wont make me happy. as for ncaa i like ND +370 ML.
 
Atlanta -5.5
Carolina/Detroit under 42
Tennessee +140 ML
Cleveland/Baltimore under 34
Miami +170 ML
Chicago -3
Dallas -3.5
Kansas City -5.5
Denver +3
Buffalo -3
San Diego -2.5
Houston/Seattle under 45.5
St. Louis +13.5
 
no way bc doesn't cover the spread in that game.

come on.

boooooooooooooooooooooooo.

we look very good.
 
kastofsna120 said:
how can you pick the over in the dolphins game? not a smart bet at all
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Not as bad of a bet as it seems. While I wouldn't take it, it's usually the games with 2 even teams that go the over. Why is that? Because both teams will be scoring. The score isn't going to be like 28-3 Tampa. Now you may think, both great defenses, but it's much more likely due to turnovers and other things that points will be scored for both sides. It's far more likely for a game like this to go the over because both teams will be scoring. See what I mean? When the total is 35, a 20-17 game wins the over. That's about the game we had last week against the Bills. Where as in a game that's going to be a blowout (49ers vs Colts game last week), it's much more unlikely that one team will cover the entire spread basically by itself. The total for the 49ers vs Colts game last week was 46. Only 31 points were scored because while the Colts offense played very well, so did the defense, holding the 49ers to only 3 points. It's very dificult for any team to score 44 points against anybody. Hopefully this made sense.
 
i'm not liking giving a touchdown to the Redskins... they have been very scrappy on the road this year... very scrappy overall..
 
SMadison29 said:
How come you didn't pick Temple +44 over Miami?
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That was my only college pick this week. Can Miami win by 44? Yes. Will they? No. Why? Larry Coker likes to get his younger guys in after he has a comfortable lead against a weak opponent, who won't dominate the game as much as the starters. My prediction is Miami by 28.
 
A.P.A said:
Not as bad of a bet as it seems. While I wouldn't take it, it's usually the games with 2 even teams that go the over. Why is that? Because both teams will be scoring. The score isn't going to be like 28-3 Tampa. Now you may think, both great defenses, but it's much more likely due to turnovers and other things that points will be scored for both sides. It's far more likely for a game like this to go the over because both teams will be scoring. See what I mean? When the total is 35, a 20-17 game wins the over. That's about the game we had last week against the Bills. Where as in a game that's going to be a blowout (49ers vs Colts game last week), it's much more unlikely that one team will cover the entire spread basically by itself. The total for the 49ers vs Colts game last week was 46. Only 31 points were scored because while the Colts offense played very well, so did the defense, holding the 49ers to only 3 points. It's very dificult for any team to score 44 points against anybody. Hopefully this made sense.
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There's plenty of truth in that. I learned the hard way in the '80s. The score would start out high and I would think I had a cinch on the over, but if it was a one-sided game it was incredible how often I'd lose. Nothing happens in the second half. One trend bettors here look for is to wager on 2nd half unders if the favorite is up huge at halftime, especially if at home and the margin is 17 or more. They tend to sit on the lead and rely on the defense. But now the sportsbooks are aware of that angle and they cut the 2nd half totals in that scenario.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
There's plenty of truth in that. I learned the hard way in the '80s. The score would start out high and I would think I had a cinch on the over, but if it was a one-sided game it was incredible how often I'd lose. Nothing happens in the second half. One trend bettors here look for is to wager on 2nd half unders if the favorite is up huge at halftime, especially if at home and the margin is 17 or more. They tend to sit on the lead and rely on the defense. But now the sportsbooks are aware of that angle and they cut the 2nd half totals in that scenario.
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Glad you grasped what I was trying to say. Many people think "Oh lord the Colts are playing the 49ers, 46 should be scored in 3 Quarters!!". Doesn't work out like that though. If a team is blowing out another at halftime most of the time the second half is just scrap ball, wasting time and avoiding injuries.
 
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