Comparing #8 vs. #13 NFL draft picks 1985-2015 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Comparing #8 vs. #13 NFL draft picks 1985-2015

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jim1

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1985 Ron Holmes/ Eddie Brown
1986 Leslie O'neal/ James Fitzpatrick
1987 Shane Conlan/ Chris Miller
1988 Dave Cadigan/ Keith Jackson
1989 Burt Grossman/ Eric Metcalf
1990 Chris Singleton/ Percy Snow
1991 Antone Davis/ Mike Pritchard
1992 Bob Whitfield/ Eugene Chung
1993 Willie Roaf/ Brad Hopkins
1994 Sam Adams/ Joe Johnson
1995 Joey Galloway/ Mark Fields
1996 Tim Biakabatuba / Walt Harris
1997 James Farrior/ Tony Gonzalez
1998 Greg Ellis/ Takeo Spikes
1999 David Boston/ Troy Edwards
2000 Plaxico Burress/ John Abraham
2001 David Terrell/ Marcus Stroud
2002 Roy Williams/ Donte Stallworth
2003 Jordan Gross/ Ty Warren
2004 Deangelo Hall/ Lee Evans
2005 Antrel Rolle/ Jammal Brown
2006 Donte Whitner/ Kamerion Wimbley
2007 Jamaal Anderson/ Adam Carriker
2008 Derrick Harvey/ Jonathan Stewart
2009 Eugen Monroe/ Brian Orapko
2010 Rolando McClain/ Brandon Graham
2011 Jake Locker/ Nick Fairley
2012 Ryan Tannehill/ Michael Floyd
2013 Tavon Austin/ Sheldon Richardson
2014 Justin Gilbert/ Aaron Donald
2015 Vic Beasley/ Andreus Peat
 
Sons of Shula said:
Complete waste without picks 9-12 and context.
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What it would be is a complete waste of data if you couldn't learn anything from it, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Hits/misses pick #8 and hits/misses pick #13- it's self explanatory what you can glean from that. If you want to see the picks in between #9-12 an easy way is wikipedia, just click the arrow to go from year to year.
 
jim1 said:
What it would be is a complete waste of data if you couldn't learn anything from it, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Hits/misses pick #8 and hits/misses pick #13- it's self explanatory what you can glean from that. If you want to see the picks in between #9-12 an easy way is wikipedia, just click the arrow to go from year to year.
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By moving to 13, we gave up a shot at everybody picked between 8-12. You can't learn anything from it without knowing 8-12 each year, because that's who you have a shot at that 13th pick doesn't. You're not just giving up that one individual player picked at 8.

There is no way you can work the numbers that will show a benefit to the move down. The 8th pick always has been and always will be a superior pick to 13th, so you damn well better have gotten something good in return. We didn't.
 
In this draft, there isn't a significant difference from 8 to 13, but it limits the available positions. I fear that Miami will use this as an excuse to reach for a position of need with a pick they couldn't have justified in the top 10 - bc the Dolphins. But, if Miami plays it cool, they'll still be in line to draft a guy that could just as easily gone at 8. Tunsil, Ramsey, and Jack look like the only Blue Chip guys. After them, you have a group of about twelve players tightly grouped. Removing QB's and Elliot, I see nine guys worth drafting that high. Two are WR's, and Miami's probably not in the market, so that narrows it further.

Conklin, Stanley, Nkemdiche, Bosa, Ogbah, Lee, and Hargreaves. Not saying that these guys are all exactly as good as one and other, but they fall under the same umbrella for me. Talented with some concerns.
 
Gonzo said:
By moving to 13, we gave up a shot at everybody picked between 8-12. You can't learn anything from it without knowing 8-12 each year, because that's who you have a shot at that 13th pick doesn't. You're not just giving up that one individual player picked at 8.

There is no way you can work the numbers that will show a benefit to the move down. The 8th pick always has been and always will be a superior pick to 13th, so you damn well better have gotten something good in return. We didn't.
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Of course you can learn something. It's a cursory look at a simple factor- in any given year for the last 30 years, how successful was the #8 pick and how successful was the #13 pick? If you want to increase the size of the data and include picks 9-12, that's easy- again, go to wikipedia and click the year arrow in their NFL draft page. To transpose that data horizontally to make it a decent length post would have been a pain.

That way you can see the true opportunity cost of having #13 instead of #8, but if you can't learn something about the value of the players taken at #8 vs #13, that's on you. And if you don't see anything good as per Maxwell and Alonso, that's on you as well. We'll see what happens as per their health, but Maxwell wasn't a part of the Legion of Boom by mistake and Alonso wasn't the PFWA defensive rookie by mistake either. They were playing in the wrong system in Philly. We'll see if Gase and Joseph can maximize their talents, I think they can.

As to this from your post:

"There is no way you can work the numbers that will show a benefit to the move down."

Are you kidding me? Of course the #8 pick is better, the question is, how much worse is the #13? Isn't that obvious?
 
Just extrapolating data to fit an argument. An interesting guide maybe but sos and Gonzo already said why it's not applicable.

And I guess it is on me because I see 2 guys that should've been had by swapping thirds. Worse trade per value I've seen the dolphins do since throwing away vontae for a 2nd round pick right after using a first on him ... and he was actually good
 
BobDole said:
Just extrapolating data to fit an argument. An interesting guide maybe but sos and Gonzo already said why it's not applicable.

And I guess it is on me because I see 2 guys that should've been had by swapping thirds. Worse trade per value I've seen the dolphins do since throwing away vontae for a 2nd round pick right after using a first on him ... and he was actually good
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You people are funny. This is simply comparing the quality of the #8 picks vs the quality of the #13 picks, this is not an attempt to fit any argument. That being said, I'm ok with the value we got for trading down 5 picks. Again, if you're another who can't learn something from comparing 30 years of #8s to 30 years of #13s, that's on you. For looking at #s 9-12 from 1985-2015 same thing, go to wikipedia and use the arrow, easiest way tp navigate year by year.
 
Only Miami fans will discard this....Interesting that the 13 spot has been better as of late and probably the whole chart.

To me this year we just as good at 13 as we were at 8...Not 1 lick of difference...Actually might keep us from taking a sucker pick like Some teams have done.

Funny feeling we move down 1 more time IMO.
 
jim1 said:
You people are funny. This is simply comparing the quality of the #8 picks vs the quality of the #13 picks, this is not an attempt to fit any argument. That being said, I'm ok with the value we got for trading down 5 picks. Again, if you're another who can't learn something from comparing 30 years of #8s to 30 years of #13s, that's on you. For looking at #s 9-12 from 1985-2015 same thing, go to wikipedia and use the arrow, easiest way tp navigate year by year.
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step 1. read sentence where it says this is not an attempt to fit an argument

step 2. read sentence that immediately follows that says ok with value we got for trading down 5 picks

step 3. ponder
 
There's a few very elite talents at the top and than a whole bunch of players in the 1st and 2nd rnd right around the same talent level IMO.

Last year the drafts talent level went up as the draft process went by. This year it's going down.
 
jim1 said:
Ditto. I you can't look at simple information and discern anything, that's on you. Move on to a thread that suits you better.
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On the flipside, if one thinks they can extract viable information from such erroneous and incomplete data . . .

:bs:
 
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