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Complimentary Football by Quarters

Fins1971

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First off let me state that I'm not trying to get into and offense vs defense blame thread.
This is strickly an analysis of each quarter from both the offensive and defensive perspective.
The analysis is of the 2014 Dolphins and the 64 quarters played this past season
The emphisis is on what happens to Defense when we score a TD in a quarter.
It also focuses on what happens to the Offense when we allow a TD to be scored in a quarter.
You may have read my previous thread about the importance of scoring TD's in a football game.
This breaks it down further into a quarter snapshot and show the statiscal difference that occurs.

Ok, before I get into the results let me give a few details on scoring by quarter this past season in the NFL.
In the first quarter an average of 9.3 points have been scored by both teams playing.
In the second quarter an average of 13.5 points have been scored by both teams playing.
In the third quarter an average of 10.1 points have been scored by both teams playing.
In the fourth quarter an average of 12.3 points have been scored by both teams playing.
The average number of point scored in an NFL game this past year is 45.2

So by NFL averages if you score a TD in a quarter your chances of winning that quarter go up dramatically.
And if you allow a TD in a quarter your chances of winning that quarter go down dramatically.
This is due to no quarter having an average scoring number above 14.
Now this is Not to say that if you score a TD in a quarter you are magically not going to allow a TD.
There are several instances where more that 14 points are scored by both teams but it is not the norm.

Attached is a spreadsheet that tracks the 64 quarters played.
On the Miami side the quarter is marked green if a TD was scored by any unit.
On the Opponent side the quarter is marked yellow is a TD was allowed by any unit.
This allows you to see what happens to the other unit in a visual method.

For an 8-8 team we fall exactly where you might think.
We scored a TD in 32 quarters and we failed to score a TD in the other 32 quarters.
We allowed a TD in 32 quarters and we didn't allow a TD in the other 32 quarters.
This make the analysis real easy to see what a major difference a TD makes since it so balanced.

If we look at those 32 quarters where we scored a TD we find that defense allows 2.0 points per quarter less than when we don't score a TD in a quarter.
Also in those 32 quarters where we score the TD the defense shuts out the opponent almost 47% of the time.
When we don't score a TD in the quarter that shutout number drops to under 10%.
When we score a TD in a quarter the opponents only score a TD 40% of the time.
When we don't score a TD in a quarter that rises to almost 60% of the time.

If we look at the 32 quarters where we allowed a TD we find that the offense scores 1.3 points less per quarter than when we don't allow a TD in a quarter.
Also in the 32 quarters where we allow a TD we only score a TD 40% of the time.
When we don't allow a TD in a quarter that rises to 60%.
There were 19 quarters where the opponent was shutout. In the 19 quarters almost 79% of the time we scored a TD.
In the other 45 quarters where we allow the oppenent to score points the percentage of TD quarters dropped to 38%.

The green quarters are pretty balanced throught the season with 17 in the first half and 15 in the second half of season.
You can see several lulls where we go 3 quarters in a row without green.

The yellow quarters start out great and then you can see the collapse of the defense at season end.
Through the first 12 games the defense only allowed 19 yellow quarters (19/48) 40%
In the final 4 games the defense allowed 13 yellow quarters (13/16) 82%. What a huge drop off.

Nothing ground breaking here but wanted to show the big difference scoring a TD makes.
 

Attachments

  • Quarters.xls
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first 10 games : allowed 18 TD's ( a good 1.8 td's/ game)
last 6 games : allowed 23 TD's (a whopping 3.83 td's/ game)

Offense first 10 games : 26 TD's (2.6/game)
last 6 games:18 TD's (3/game)

So yeah, pretty obvious the defense is what failed at the end. No big surprise there. Although I did NOT take into account defensive TD's. Wouldn't have changed anything for the last 6 games anyways.
 
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