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Could Fins go heavy on D early?

Feverdream

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I know you know this, but that's likely not Miami's board. Some of those names may be nowhere close to #18. That's my problem with BPA. Matter of fact, at #18 I haven't the vaguest idea who or what position they'll take
This was a for instance...

The poster with whom I was speaking seemed to be taking a stance of... taking an Edge would be a reach.

I cited these numbers to show... it wouldn't be a reach.

Your point has more to do with 'priorities'.
 

Beach Bum

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What makes you think that BPA isn't an edge exactly? I'm curious.

Most of these guys are graded quite highly by the better scouts.
First of all, I really appreciate the way you asked me about my reasoning. As I have said before, I am not an expert, nor am I trying to pretend to be. I could be misguided, but my concerns about taking a DE in round 1 this year come from a few things.

The fiasco of Dion Jordan (pick 3) and Charles Harris (pick 22) has me questioning our ability to evaluate edge rushers properly. I realize that teams miss on players, but I have to admit, those misses hurt, and I believe the impact set our team back for some time. I would hate to have something like that happen again because we have a great opportunity to make a real difference for our team this year. I might be guilty of a framing bias. Perhaps I should treat each draft cycle as a new and independent cycle, but until Grier and our scouting staff do a little bit better with this position group, our misses have made me risk-averse when it comes to taking edge rushers in round one.

As for Zierlein and player evaluations in general, I don't know if they are good or bad. In the past, I have relied on his player evaluations to target guys I like. He seems to be consistent, but I have no idea if he is good or not because, as far as I know, there isn't any data available to grade and evaluate the evaluators. I am also considering that Zierlein casts a wide net with his evaluations and seems to cover most of the players coming into the draft. In contrast, Ledyard's report linked below is more specialized, which carries a little more weight with me.

Finally, something I hadn't considered before but learned about recently is projected playing time concerning draft value. Except for Phillps, Ledyard doesn't think any of the other guys, especially Rousseau, are day one. Admittedly, he's a tough evaluator, and he's not saying they won't eventually be good players or contribute. He thinks it may take some developmental time to get them on the field full time. I would be happy with several of them if we could get them in round 2.


https://www.pewterreport.com/2021-nfl-draft-edge-rankings/
 

Feverdream

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First of all, I really appreciate the way you asked me about my reasoning. As I have said before, I am not an expert, nor am I trying to pretend to be. I could be misguided, but my concerns about taking a DE in round 1 this year come from a few things.

The fiasco of Dion Jordan (pick 3) and Charles Harris (pick 22) has me questioning our ability to evaluate edge rushers properly. I realize that teams miss on players, but I have to admit, those misses hurt, and I believe the impact set our team back for some time. I would hate to have something like that happen again because we have a great opportunity to make a real difference for our team this year. I might be guilty of a framing bias. Perhaps I should treat each draft cycle as a new and independent cycle, but until Grier and our scouting staff do a little bit better with this position group, our misses have made me risk-averse when it comes to taking edge rushers in round one.

As for Zierlein and player evaluations in general, I don't know if they are good or bad. In the past, I have relied on his player evaluations to target guys I like. He seems to be consistent, but I have no idea if he is good or not because, as far as I know, there isn't any data available to grade and evaluate the evaluators. I am also considering that Zierlein casts a wide net with his evaluations and seems to cover most of the players coming into the draft. In contrast, Ledyard's report linked below is more specialized, which carries a little more weight with me.

Finally, something I hadn't considered before but learned about recently is projected playing time concerning draft value. Except for Phillps, Ledyard doesn't think any of the other guys, especially Rousseau, are day one. Admittedly, he's a tough evaluator, and he's not saying they won't eventually be good players or contribute. He thinks it may take some developmental time to get them on the field full time. I would be happy with several of them if we could get them in round 2.


https://www.pewterreport.com/2021-nfl-draft-edge-rankings/
A couple of comments...

1) The evaluators who selected Jordan and Harris are no longer making decisions with the Dolphins.
2) The idea that Jordan/Harris would cause future Defensive Ends to also bust is based upon fear of making another pick. I realize that you said that you should probably treat each cycle as a new and independent cycle, so I think you are already beginning to do this.
3) You mentioned that these busts set us back. So I have to point out that Yatil Green and Ted Ginn were two rather large WR busts for us. Does this mean that we shouldn't draft a receiver? Many people here at FH have said, "you keep drafting a QB until you get it right..." but won't make the same argument for the second most important position in the NFL-- pass rusher; I guess I don't understand that. Star pass rushers make a fortune and are unobtainable in free agency (Bosa makes 27M/year)

Lance Zierlein is THE guy at NFL.com. He has been rating players for the NFL arm for years. Because he works for the league's web presence, he is VERY well connected, and I'm not sure that there is a better one out there... but I used him, not because I think he is the best, but rather for comparison purposes, because in the long run... whether there are two... or eight worthy prospects in the first round is merely an opinion... a projection at best.

Many touts have said that this draft has quite a few Edge prospects of note... what it lacks is merely a top 5 guy. So, I guess that in the long run, I'm going to take a swing at what is the biggest hole on our team in my mind. I just don't see this team as being remotely competitive vs. the better teams until we can slow their QBs down... and right now, we can't. You saw Josh Allen just dismantle us late last year when we couldn't put any consistent pressure upon him.

It'll be fun seeing what we do... and then watching the slap fights and hair pulling here at FH over whatever direction that we took.
 

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I'd be pretty disappointed if it were Rousseau too. Phillips excites me but those concussions are a serious concern. I agree there are no sure things at edge this year. I just feel we desperately need help in the pass rush area...someone who can win 1-on-1 so we don't need to blitz all the time.
I'm not sure why we aren't hearing more about Basham. He was dominating offensive linemen during Senior Bowl week.

Basham is more run stopper than pass rusher, but I think he'll get a lot of quarterback pressures. He also has the size and versatility to move inside on passing downs.
 

Russ57

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Basham is more in line with the type of DE we want. Someone with size who sets the edge and is a run stopper. Sacks aren't his primary job but he is expected to contribute some based on coverage and scheme.

Likely our sack leaders will be 3-4 OLB's. AVG is developing nicely.

Seems some here want us to get the next Cam Wake/Jason Taylor. Those type of players are 4-3 DE's that get sacks and aren't great against the run. They just aren't fits for our current defensive scheme.
 

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Well I could really go 2 ways.

Yes, I know we badly need playmakers on O. However, if we take one of the blue chippers at #6, and we already added Will Fuller, we probably don't NEED to draft another WR. We could take a solid RB in Round 3 for example, and it could look like this:

WR - Fuller, Parker, (Chase, Smith or Waddle), and then let Preston Williams, Bowden, Wilson, Jakeem battle over final spots.
TE - Gesicki, Smythe/Shaheen
RB - (Gainwell, Sermon, etc.), Gaskin

With Tua fully healed an some experience and camp, he should also be much better (same goes for the young OL). The rest of the Day 1 and Day 2 picks could shore up the D...guys like Z. Collins, J. Phillips/C. Basham, J. Holland, etc. I feel we need something to help us against Buffalo's O. I'm tired of Allen looking like Mahomes against us every game.

Now the other option I could actually go for is to say, "Screw the D and we'll focus more on that next year...let's go all in on O." If this were the case, I could also be down with something like:

1. Chase/Smith/Waddle (assuming Pitts is gone)
1b. Teven Jenkins (move Hunt to RG)
2. Javonte Williams [or Elijah Moore for example]
2b. Creed Humphrey
3. Amari Rodgers/Shi Smith/Tutu Atwell, etc. [or Trey Sermon or Kenneth Gainwell for example, if we picked Moore in 2nd round)

Our D would still probably get blown out by the Bills, but our O-line would be greatly improved and we'd pick up some nice skill players.
It's fun to see what Miami could look like with an all offense, or all defense draft.

But I think your first option is closer to what the Dolphins will do. Would love one of the top three running backs, but Sermon, Carter, Gainwell is probably more likely.
 

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What makes you think that BPA isn't an edge exactly? I'm curious.

Most of these guys are graded quite highly by the better scouts.
It could be a better edge class than we think. Otherwise, have to wonder why Grier didn't spend there in free agency.

Obviously, there isn't a Chase Young or a Joey Bosa type.
 

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Basham is more in line with the type of DE we want. Someone with size who sets the edge and is a run stopper. Sacks aren't his primary job but he is expected to contribute some based on coverage and scheme.

Likely our sack leaders will be 3-4 OLB's. AVG is developing nicely.

Seems some here want us to get the next Cam Wake/Jason Taylor. Those type of players are 4-3 DE's that get sacks and aren't great against the run. They just aren't fits for our current defensive scheme.
I think AVG is taking over for Van Noy. Miami could look at a player like Collins, I wouldn't necessarily dismiss that, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if the Dolphins didn't take a linebacker early.

DE is a must pick probably by pick #36, and I agree with you on Basham's fit.
 

Russ57

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At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we don't want an "edge" guy as most would define them.

We want a 3-4 OLB who can rush/blitz, play the run, and drop into coverage. We have no interest in a Joey Porter type 3-4 OLB who only puts his hand in the dirt and head hunts QB's on every snap.
 

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Collins would probably be the perfect combination of best LB'er that fits our scheme. I give him a first round grade. Even though I feel LB'ers are a weak spot on the team I don't think we are willing to allocate the 18th pick to one.

These days it is hard to keep good talent on defense as they command top dollar on the open market. Therefore I think we will draft offense and get defense in the FA market. The couple of places I think we will draft defense is DT and CB/DB.

It is kinda like we can make do with an OLB who doesn't have the first step to be a top edge, doesn't have the speed to a great cover guy, but someone who is a bit of a tweener who is "good enough" at both. Think 6'4", 250#, 4.6/7 40 yard dash guys that have good short range speed/agility scores and strength. Football smarts will be higher priority than athletic ability.
 

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I'm still thinking that both Paye and Rousseau are the guys we want for our particular defense.

They are the stronger, more edge-setting type DEs who can even jump inside on a passing down. Indeed, that's where many of Rousseau's (6'5.5", 266 pounds) sacks came from. Paye, at 6'4" and 275 Lbs is cut from the same cloth.

No, these guys are not bendy pure pass rushers... instead, they are thick, versatile, punch you in the mouth DEs... This is a good draft class for this kind of Edge, and it is the kind of Edge that Flo seems to favour.

...and like SF Dolphin Fan said, I suspect these guys (and guys like them) are why we didn't even try to bring in any FA Ends.
 
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