Daniel Jones, Qb, Duke | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Daniel Jones, Qb, Duke

TedSlimmJr said:
I'm reminded of an old adage... "If you can't dazzle them brilliance - baffle them with bulls***". We have enough of that with hoops around here. We don't need any more.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the heads up. I'll refrain from the forum. But I will post this.

I am looking for a phenom QB, not just a QB who can play and won't bust. A phenom is a QB who performs on the rookie contract, takes a team to the playoffs, and gives them a chance to win it, on a rookie contract. Those quarterbacks are rare, but that's what we are after. Not just a QB who can throw, or who will not be a complete bust.

To that end, I am looking at past quarterbacks who in the NFL have done just that, performed on the contract. And I am looking at QBs in the last ten years, coming out, and I am looking at their senior year only, or last year if they were not seniors or had to sit out the last year due to injury; but, their performance in last season in college.

As far as their performance, I am looking at Attempts A , Completion % C, attempts per sack APS, attempts per interception API, attempts per touchdown APT. And, one more thing that requires calculation, C% x APS x API / APT, and we will call it Reliability R. Here re the number for the quarterback who I think performed, in their last season in college.

Mark Sanchez (2009): 6-2, 225, Record 12-1,
A 366, C% 66, APS 21.5, API 36.6, APT 10.8, R 48.2

Cam Newton (2011): 6-5, 245, Record 14-0
A 280, C% 66, APS 12.2, API 40.0, APT 9.3, R 34.5

Colin Kapernick (2011): 6-4, 230, Record 13-1
A 359, C% 65, APS 35.9, API 44.9, APT 17.1, R 61.1

Andrew Luck (2012): 6-4, 240, Record 11-2
A 404, C% 71, APS 36.7, API 40.4, APT 10.9, R 96.9

Russell WIlson (2012): 5-11, 215, Record 11-3
A 309, C% 73, APS 14.1, API 77.3, APT 9.4, R 84.4

Jared Goff (2016): 6-4, 222, Record 7-5
A 529, C% 64.5, APS 20.4, API 40.7, APT 12.3, R 43.4

Carson Wentz (2016): 6-5, 237, Record 15-1
A 358, C^% 63.7, APS 17.9, API 35.8, APT 14.2, R 28.5

Pat Mahomes (2017): 6-3, 230, Record 5-7
A 591, C% 65.6, APS 21.9, API 59.1, APT 14.4, R 58.9


You can notice that all those quarterbacks have:
Attempts: 280 and over
C% over 63
APS over 17.5 or they significantly excel in other categories. They are decisive.
API over 35. They do not make frequent bad decisions.
APT 15 and under, except for Kap, but significantly under is better, they can score.
R, reliability, is not under 28.5 and not over 100.
And then you can check other quarterbacks you think belong to the list and see why they do or do not perform.
Also, they are big, or fast, and they are winners usually.
Those are the benchmarks. If a prospect does not clear the benchmarks, it's a risk.

Now let's look at some of the QBs in the upcoming draft and I will underscore problem areas, and bold great performance, adjusted for 12 games for the attempts:


Will Grier, 6-2, 220, Record 6-1
A 375, C% 70, APS 11.5, API 31.8, APT 8.8, R 28.9

Daniel Jones, 6-5, 220, Record 5-3
A 366, C% 64.5, APS 12.2, API 45.8, APT 12.1, R 25.6

Clayton Thorson, 6-4, 230, Record 5-3
A 477, C% 60.1, APS 17.7, API 31.8, APT 31.8, R 10.7

Ryan Finley, 6-4, 212, Record 5-2
A 454, C% 67, APS 66.3, API 44.2, APT 20.4, R 96.4

Justin Herbert 6-6, 230, Record 5-3
A 390, C%, 59.6, APS 21.7, API 43.3, APT 13.0, R 43.1

Gardner Minshew, 6-2, 220 Record 7-1
A 620, C% 71, APS 69, API 69, APT 15.9, R 212


Bottom line, if they do not clear the benchmarks, have too many flags, they do not match up to previous phenoms, and there are significant risks, and there is no reason for me to look to the film to see taka taka feet, delivery, accuracy, and enjoy their game.
 
TruePoizon said:
above I saw Luke Falk mentioned. Does he have any future potential at all?
Click to expand...

Not if you ask me. And not if you ask Slimm, I think.

Gase likes him because he gets the football out of his hands ULTRA quick. But to me that's a limiter on your offense, not a great thing.
 
I've never considered Luke Falk a starting caliber NFL prospect. People have to remember that Falk also had concussion issues coming out of college. He suffered at least one and most likely two that were significant at Washington St.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
I've never considered Luke Falk a starting caliber NFL prospect. People have to remember that Falk also had concussion issues coming out of college. He suffered at least one and most likely two that were significant at Washington St.
Click to expand...

He took 119 sacks over his Washington State career.
 
Don't know if you're just joking around or if you're trying to take a stab, but you're right it does sound contradictory.

However, the facts are the facts. Coming out, his average depth of target was only 7.0 yards, which ranked 53rd in the class. About 38% of Falk's passes came out in under 2.0 seconds.
 
Hmm I’ve never once used college completion percentage as a viable nfl success indicator with a qb as a primary evaluation tool. So I’m not really sure why slimm feels the need to take a shot at me here.

As for the player Daniel jones I watched him vs uva I didn’t see it. Never clicked in my head that this kid looks the pro franchise part or could be down the road. Small sample size obviously.
 
Slimm, does Daniel Jones remind you of Brodie Croyle?

That's who I keep seeing.

I'm sure you remember Brodie, being the Bama nut that you are, lol.
 
ckparrothead said:
Slimm, does Daniel Jones remind you of Brodie Croyle?

That's who I keep seeing.

I'm sure you remember Brodie, being the Bama nut that you are, lol.
Click to expand...


Not really. I'm not sure who Daniel Jones reminds me of because I haven't really thought about it yet. But Jones is certainly more talented than Croyle in my opinion. By the way, Jones has had the worst luck among any of these quarterbacks this year - it seems like he's playing in a rain storm every week.

But no I absolutely love Brodie Croyle. I listened to him talk here a while back about the catch Tyrone Prothro made against Southern Miss about 15 years ago. One of the best catches in the history of college football. But to hear Brodie talk about how Prothro ran the wrong route on that play was hilarious. It's was awesome. They're both doing very well nowdays. Prothro is coaching WR's at Jasper. Love 'em both.
 
Finally had a chance to see him albeit in highlight games. Here's my quick hits on Jones.

Pluses
Nice athletic ability, similar to Ryan Tannehill in that regard.
Good touch passer
Runs the RPO offense very well.
Good size. Looks like he could take a hit.

Questions
Arm strength appears underwhelming
Puts a lot of air under deep throws instead of zipping the ball.
Doesn't protect his body scrambling out of the pocket/will need to slide at NFL level

Overall
Interesting prospect, who I've seen mocked pretty consistently in first round. Arm strength is my biggest concern.
 
LargoFin said:
Thank you for the heads up. I'll refrain from the forum. But I will post this.

I am looking for a phenom QB, not just a QB who can play and won't bust. A phenom is a QB who performs on the rookie contract, takes a team to the playoffs, and gives them a chance to win it, on a rookie contract. Those quarterbacks are rare, but that's what we are after. Not just a QB who can throw, or who will not be a complete bust.

To that end, I am looking at past quarterbacks who in the NFL have done just that, performed on the contract. And I am looking at QBs in the last ten years, coming out, and I am looking at their senior year only, or last year if they were not seniors or had to sit out the last year due to injury; but, their performance in last season in college.

As far as their performance, I am looking at Attempts A , Completion % C, attempts per sack APS, attempts per interception API, attempts per touchdown APT. And, one more thing that requires calculation, C% x APS x API / APT, and we will call it Reliability R. Here re the number for the quarterback who I think performed, in their last season in college.

Mark Sanchez (2009): 6-2, 225, Record 12-1,
A 366, C% 66, APS 21.5, API 36.6, APT 10.8, R 48.2

Cam Newton (2011): 6-5, 245, Record 14-0
A 280, C% 66, APS 12.2, API 40.0, APT 9.3, R 34.5

Colin Kapernick (2011): 6-4, 230, Record 13-1
A 359, C% 65, APS 35.9, API 44.9, APT 17.1, R 61.1

Andrew Luck (2012): 6-4, 240, Record 11-2
A 404, C% 71, APS 36.7, API 40.4, APT 10.9, R 96.9

Russell WIlson (2012): 5-11, 215, Record 11-3
A 309, C% 73, APS 14.1, API 77.3, APT 9.4, R 84.4

Jared Goff (2016): 6-4, 222, Record 7-5
A 529, C% 64.5, APS 20.4, API 40.7, APT 12.3, R 43.4

Carson Wentz (2016): 6-5, 237, Record 15-1
A 358, C^% 63.7, APS 17.9, API 35.8, APT 14.2, R 28.5

Pat Mahomes (2017): 6-3, 230, Record 5-7
A 591, C% 65.6, APS 21.9, API 59.1, APT 14.4, R 58.9


You can notice that all those quarterbacks have:
Attempts: 280 and over
C% over 63
APS over 17.5 or they significantly excel in other categories. They are decisive.
API over 35. They do not make frequent bad decisions.
APT 15 and under, except for Kap, but significantly under is better, they can score.
R, reliability, is not under 28.5 and not over 100.
And then you can check other quarterbacks you think belong to the list and see why they do or do not perform.
Also, they are big, or fast, and they are winners usually.
Those are the benchmarks. If a prospect does not clear the benchmarks, it's a risk.

Now let's look at some of the QBs in the upcoming draft and I will underscore problem areas, and bold great performance, adjusted for 12 games for the attempts:


Will Grier, 6-2, 220, Record 6-1
A 375, C% 70, APS 11.5, API 31.8, APT 8.8, R 28.9

Daniel Jones, 6-5, 220, Record 5-3
A 366, C% 64.5, APS 12.2, API 45.8, APT 12.1, R 25.6

Clayton Thorson, 6-4, 230, Record 5-3
A 477, C% 60.1, APS 17.7, API 31.8, APT 31.8, R 10.7

Ryan Finley, 6-4, 212, Record 5-2
A 454, C% 67, APS 66.3, API 44.2, APT 20.4, R 96.4

Justin Herbert 6-6, 230, Record 5-3
A 390, C%, 59.6, APS 21.7, API 43.3, APT 13.0, R 43.1

Gardner Minshew, 6-2, 220 Record 7-1
A 620, C% 71, APS 69, API 69, APT 15.9, R 212


Bottom line, if they do not clear the benchmarks, have too many flags, they do not match up to previous phenoms, and there are significant risks, and there is no reason for me to look to the film to see taka taka feet, delivery, accuracy, and enjoy their game.
Click to expand...

Things like this are nice to look at but they're a waste of time calculate. You have to use your eyes to see the whole story. You can twist stats to tell any story you want. This fabricated reliability score gave Carson Wentz, who played against FCS competition, a 28.5. Compare that to Minshew's 212 & you would be lead to believe Minshew was the next coming of Dan Marino instead of the fringe draft prospect he is. There's also a lot of volatility with only using one year's worth of numbers. One bad game can ruin you with these types of stats. At the time you pulled these stats Grier's APS & API were 11.5 & 31.8, respectively. Three games later they're 16.5 & 43.5 which are close or above your subjective thresholds.
 
LargoFin said:
Thank you for the heads up. I'll refrain from the forum. But I will post this.

I am looking for a phenom QB, not just a QB who can play and won't bust. A phenom is a QB who performs on the rookie contract, takes a team to the playoffs, and gives them a chance to win it, on a rookie contract. Those quarterbacks are rare, but that's what we are after. Not just a QB who can throw, or who will not be a complete bust.

To that end, I am looking at past quarterbacks who in the NFL have done just that, performed on the contract. And I am looking at QBs in the last ten years, coming out, and I am looking at their senior year only, or last year if they were not seniors or had to sit out the last year due to injury; but, their performance in last season in college.

As far as their performance, I am looking at Attempts A , Completion % C, attempts per sack APS, attempts per interception API, attempts per touchdown APT. And, one more thing that requires calculation, C% x APS x API / APT, and we will call it Reliability R. Here re the number for the quarterback who I think performed, in their last season in college.

Mark Sanchez (2009): 6-2, 225, Record 12-1,
A 366, C% 66, APS 21.5, API 36.6, APT 10.8, R 48.2

Cam Newton (2011): 6-5, 245, Record 14-0
A 280, C% 66, APS 12.2, API 40.0, APT 9.3, R 34.5

Colin Kapernick (2011): 6-4, 230, Record 13-1
A 359, C% 65, APS 35.9, API 44.9, APT 17.1, R 61.1

Andrew Luck (2012): 6-4, 240, Record 11-2
A 404, C% 71, APS 36.7, API 40.4, APT 10.9, R 96.9

Russell WIlson (2012): 5-11, 215, Record 11-3
A 309, C% 73, APS 14.1, API 77.3, APT 9.4, R 84.4

Jared Goff (2016): 6-4, 222, Record 7-5
A 529, C% 64.5, APS 20.4, API 40.7, APT 12.3, R 43.4

Carson Wentz (2016): 6-5, 237, Record 15-1
A 358, C^% 63.7, APS 17.9, API 35.8, APT 14.2, R 28.5

Pat Mahomes (2017): 6-3, 230, Record 5-7
A 591, C% 65.6, APS 21.9, API 59.1, APT 14.4, R 58.9


You can notice that all those quarterbacks have:
Attempts: 280 and over
C% over 63
APS over 17.5 or they significantly excel in other categories. They are decisive.
API over 35. They do not make frequent bad decisions.
APT 15 and under, except for Kap, but significantly under is better, they can score.
R, reliability, is not under 28.5 and not over 100.
And then you can check other quarterbacks you think belong to the list and see why they do or do not perform.
Also, they are big, or fast, and they are winners usually.
Those are the benchmarks. If a prospect does not clear the benchmarks, it's a risk.

Now let's look at some of the QBs in the upcoming draft and I will underscore problem areas, and bold great performance, adjusted for 12 games for the attempts:


Will Grier, 6-2, 220, Record 6-1
A 375, C% 70, APS 11.5, API 31.8, APT 8.8, R 28.9

Daniel Jones, 6-5, 220, Record 5-3
A 366, C% 64.5, APS 12.2, API 45.8, APT 12.1, R 25.6

Clayton Thorson, 6-4, 230, Record 5-3
A 477, C% 60.1, APS 17.7, API 31.8, APT 31.8, R 10.7

Ryan Finley, 6-4, 212, Record 5-2
A 454, C% 67, APS 66.3, API 44.2, APT 20.4, R 96.4

Justin Herbert 6-6, 230, Record 5-3
A 390, C%, 59.6, APS 21.7, API 43.3, APT 13.0, R 43.1

Gardner Minshew, 6-2, 220 Record 7-1
A 620, C% 71, APS 69, API 69, APT 15.9, R 212


Bottom line, if they do not clear the benchmarks, have too many flags, they do not match up to previous phenoms, and there are significant risks, and there is no reason for me to look to the film to see taka taka feet, delivery, accuracy, and enjoy their game.
Click to expand...

Interesting. Has there been many outliers in the past 10 years? Like how does a Kirk Cousins or Jimmy G compare?
 
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