I like Chris a lot. He comes from a sports family, graduated from Amherst and ended up rising through the ranks learning from a lot of successful front office people.
I know we talk smack but the business of being a GM is fairly unique and if studied under Rick Spielman, Bill Parcells, and Jeff Ireland you know something about it. Those guys have all had long careers in the business and know what the NFL is about.
Chris took over the year after Tannenbaum had convinced Ross to re-sign Tannehill so Grier naturally had few options but to recruit an offensive HC with a QB-friendly approach to try and make that decision go as well as it could. And to that end, it worked reasonably well when Tannehill was healthy. Recall he and Gase had a (marginally) winning record together. That can be defended further with more attention to the roster. The '17 and '18 teams had poor talent. The upside of Gase-Tannehill was far more apparent on the '16 team which featured several good players.
Flores was the first real HC hire and Tua the first attempt at a QB of his own. The problem there was the offset in hiring. Flores was brought on in 2019 during the tank season and Tua was drafted the season after. In hindsight, Flores doesn't seem to have been on board for either the tank-style rebuild or the drafting of Tua. So the decision to hire Flores just doesn't compute outside of Flores just looking like one of the best guys for the job. He was probably just a figure that Grier didn't want to pass on, much as with Tua.
Still, I was on board with Tua being the pick in '20. He was the most proven guy at the time if you were willing to overlook his existing medical condition thinking it'd get better (which it did). Pressed to select Herbert, Love or Hurts over Tua you wouldn't have found many willing to do that.
Grier's history in the draft is a tale of two sides. The defensive side has been pretty good. We have more than a few hits from through the rounds: Wilkins, Phillips, Holland, Howard, Baker, Van Ginkel, etc. You can certainly add Minkah to that as well. I'm convinced that isn't the problem especially when the FAs perform well, too: Seiler, Ramsey, Long, etc.
On offense it's a bit different. There's a clear lack of production from the mid- and late-rounds outside of RBs like Miller, Drake, Ajayi, Achane, etc. I'm sure Grier had a hand in scouting all those guys. Even Gaskin outperformed his R7 selection. Nonetheless, the WRs were all bought with either big money or big draft picks: Hill, Waddle, Gesicki, etc. And there are plenty of disappointments in guys like Leonte Carroo, Jakeem Grant, Erik Ezukama, Hunter Long and others all of whom Grier would've scouted.
The problem seems to be that there's never really been a cohesive offensive system in place (until now) in which those picks might've otherwise flourished. It's one thing to draft a prospect. If you dump them into a mud puddle they won't look very good. Miami's finally in position to actually draft some pieces for an offense that at least has some identity.
Combine that with the selection of a bunch of mid- and late-round OL prospects that disappointed and you've got a real patchwork collection of guys on offense some of whom are drafted high and will be expensive (Hunt, Waddle, Tua) and others who are bought with big money (Armstead, Hill) without a ton of other valuable pieces, Achane being one of the long bright spots.
IMHO, Grier has always been looking to adjust from what just happened. There's not a great sense of identity and that's mostly come from big misses. Tannehill's extension was a bad move. Gase was not ready to be a leader. Flores was highly qualified but probably shouldn't have been hired considering what the plan was going to be. If you were going to tank, maybe you should've just kept Gase aboard for another year? Maybe Flores was too good to pass up? I get it but that is Grier's decision to live with.
McDaniel is a good hire but he needs time (obviously). And the roster needs to be sorted out and stabilized for the next several years. There's too many holes on offense, particularly on that OL.
I don't necessarily see blowing it up as productive at this stage. I think the Dolphins have a good GM, a HC that needs to improve his operation and a roster that can function going forward but needs sorting out.
I don't think blowing it up really helps any of that.
TL:DR
In the end, I'd describe Chris Grier as a very smart GM who finds a good solution for nearly every decision when faced with the facts and the uncertainties around those facts. I just don't know that making a series a good decisions necessarily leads to the best outcomes.
Here's an example >> Flores and Tua were understandable selections compared with the alternative options but they didn't go together.
Here's another example >> You drafted Jaylen Waddle because you needed a WR. That was good. He's been a productive player. Nothing wrong with that pick. EXCEPT, you traded for Tyreek Hill the very next year which meant you doubled-down on WR. Picking someone like Penei Sewell would've been a more useful move had you known you were going to chase Tyreek Hill.
And that's the "problem" with Grier. His moves aren't bad, but they don't reinforce each other. There's very little complementary action even though it's hard to find an objectively "bad" decision.
I think a lot of this comes down to always plugging holes. If given the time, I have good faith someone of Grier's decision-making ability can go beyond constantly plugging holes and eventually finding a pace at which his moves work in tandem. That will take another 1-2 years though.
What people forget is that this offense was designed to (A) hide the OL and (B) highlight the Tua-Tyreek connection. It did both of those things but that doesn't mean you stop fixing the OL or stop worrying about building out the rest of the offense. The former is Grier's job. The latter is McDaniel's.
Neither is guaranteed anything beyond 2024 but it will be interesting to see how things progress over the next 365 days under their leadership because it will be a make-or-break year for the GM-HC-QB trio for sure.
