David Johnson: “rosen Will Be Dominant”

Awsi Dooger

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Henne was clearly a 2nd round next tier QB prospect... Rosen was clearly a top ten prospect many experts thought was QB1 in that draft.
That's exactly the way to look at it, IMO. Normally late second round the quarterbacks are ones who have obvious flaws and never been rated among the elite.

We benefitted from a terrible Rosen season and got a player who was a 5-star recruit and top 10 NFL Draft prospect, for the 62nd pick in the following draft.

I'll take that every time and not think about it at all. I have no idea why all the variables come into play, like scrutinizing everything Rosen did in 2018 or what anyone has said about him. That is simply too much work and not nearly the expected level of return on investment.

The single glaring tendency of this 12-month football era is absurd amount of time devoted to scrutiny of players and schemes during the offseason. I understand why Slimm does it because he's already looking at college underclassmen, so he'll know their level for several years instead of cram-coursing at the end. But to apply it to players already in the league or coaches already in the league strikes me as a colossal waste of time. However, there's a market for it on twitter and elsewhere so I guess that explains it. Fans want to believe the team or players they saw a season prior were unfairly restrained. It is exactly the opposite of Parcells', "You are what you are."

I don't know that Rosen can be dominant, whatever that means. For reference, it required 7.9 YPA to manage Top 10 in the league last season in that vital basic category. I remember when Top 10 used to be below 7.0. It jumped up sharply in 2004 and specifically 2004. The referees seemed to be particularly harsh on the defense that season, after the rules and application changes. Then it regressed for a while but now has climbed upwards again. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds in 2019. Every time there's a season like 2011 in which I think 8.0 will be required for Top 10, then there's another backtracking. Passer rating does continue to climb but I still have more faith in basic YPA because that category isn't as dependent on short touchdown passes, etc. Adjusted YPA is excellent also, probably somewhat superior to YPA or passer rating. We're at the margins there.

Josh Rosen averaged 8.0 YPA at UCLA. I'd be thrilled if he could restore anything close to that level. Seemingly in 2019 it would be more than acceptable on a poor team if he got to 7.0.

As djphinfan mentioned in another post, Rosen developed indecision and hitches in his game last season. That is not unheard of for an NFL rookie, since windows tighten. The guys who like to throw over the middle in college are more prone to that indecision in the NFL because the lanes are simply not there. Peyton Manning didn't care as a rookie and took those shots anyway. It was often funny with all the interceptions but Manning had confidence that his long term excellence would quickly apply to NFL level.
 

Awsi Dooger

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Let's say we had done it in reverse, trading a late 2nd round pick for a lower drafted quarterback who excelled as a rookie in 2018.

Take it 52 picks in the other direction: Instead of getting the 10th pick in 2018 for the 62nd pick in 2019, we got the 114th pick from 2018 for the 62nd pick in 2019.

That would make me sick. It would be Tannehill-level thinking, or worse.

Granted, it's a matter of priorities and perspective. I don't care too much about recent performance, in comparison to how a guy has been rated all his life in comparison to his peers.

If that mid 4th rounder (114th pick) was superb as a rookie but never demonstrated that previously, I would expect him to quickly revert to his normal level.

However, the team he played for would not trade him for the 62nd pick. That's the way the league works. There would be too much faith in how he fared as a rookie, and that's understandable also.
 

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That's exactly the way to look at it, IMO. Normally late second round the quarterbacks are ones who have obvious flaws and never been rated among the elite.

We benefitted from a terrible Rosen season and got a player who was a 5-star recruit and top 10 NFL Draft prospect, for the 62nd pick in the following draft.

I'll take that every time and not think about it at all. I have no idea why all the variables come into play, like scrutinizing everything Rosen did in 2018 or what anyone has said about him. That is simply too much work and not nearly the expected level of return on investment.

The single glaring tendency of this 12-month football era is absurd amount of time devoted to scrutiny of players and schemes during the offseason. I understand why Slimm does it because he's already looking at college underclassmen, so he'll know their level for several years instead of cram-coursing at the end. But to apply it to players already in the league or coaches already in the league strikes me as a colossal waste of time. However, there's a market for it on twitter and elsewhere so I guess that explains it. Fans want to believe the team or players they saw a season prior were unfairly restrained. It is exactly the opposite of Parcells', "You are what you are."

I don't know that Rosen can be dominant, whatever that means. For reference, it required 7.9 YPA to manage Top 10 in the league last season in that vital basic category. I remember when Top 10 used to be below 7.0. It jumped up sharply in 2004 and specifically 2004. The referees seemed to be particularly harsh on the defense that season, after the rules and application changes. Then it regressed for a while but now has climbed upwards again. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds in 2019. Every time there's a season like 2011 in which I think 8.0 will be required for Top 10, then there's another backtracking. Passer rating does continue to climb but I still have more faith in basic YPA because that category isn't as dependent on short touchdown passes, etc. Adjusted YPA is excellent also, probably somewhat superior to YPA or passer rating. We're at the margins there.

Josh Rosen averaged 8.0 YPA at UCLA. I'd be thrilled if he could restore anything close to that level. Seemingly in 2019 it would be more than acceptable on a poor team if he got to 7.0.

As djphinfan mentioned in another post, Rosen developed indecision and hitches in his game last season. That is not unheard of for an NFL rookie, since windows tighten. The guys who like to throw over the middle in college are more prone to that indecision in the NFL because the lanes are simply not there. Peyton Manning didn't care as a rookie and took those shots anyway. It was often funny with all the interceptions but Manning had confidence that his long term excellence would quickly apply to NFL level.
Yes... as noted many times... Rosen’s O-line was decimated after the first start getting worse and worse as the each game progressed... his amount of pass attempts with less than 2.5 seconds to get rid of the ball was top ten worst ever.

We can’t judge Josh Rosen on the 2018 season... it was quite simply a horrific situation for any QB... much less a rookie.

I think in that first game,, when his line was somewhat stable..., he look excellent, and minus the 5 big drops....they win and his debut is hailed as one of the best rookie debuts ever.
 

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He lead the NFL in touchdowns and yards his 3rd year in the NFL and had a 7.7 ypa as well as 7.7 aya.

Not to mention 49 touchdowns and 9 ypa in 2004.

Manning was great from day one, stop trying to compare Rosen to a top 5 qb of all time.
Again... Manning couldn’t beat a mediocre Dolphin Team in his 3rd season.

Manning didn’t have a huge season until the rules changes going into the 2004 season....they change the rules and all the sudden Manning breaks Marino’s 48 touchdowns with 49.... then Brady tosses 50 in 2007.... Marino’s number would have been ridiculous with these rules.

Below was the result of the changes to illegal contact and pass interference rules going into the 2004 season... the year all the sudden several QB’s started throwing for huge numbers that didn’t previously......

Not only has passing yards gone way up, but so has penalty yards even as people are backing off receivers more and more. This keeps drives alive, and allows for more scoring opportunities.

For some perspective, the total accepted defensive penalties for primarily defense 'passing' penalties (Pass Interference, Illegal Contact, and Defensive holding):

Today

2016: 5780 yards

2015: 5472 yards

Before the Changes

2003: 4594 yards

2002: 4361 yards
 
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