Super Duper Club
- Feb 8, 2005
- Reaction score
- Las Vegas
That's exactly the way to look at it, IMO. Normally late second round the quarterbacks are ones who have obvious flaws and never been rated among the elite.Henne was clearly a 2nd round next tier QB prospect... Rosen was clearly a top ten prospect many experts thought was QB1 in that draft.
We benefitted from a terrible Rosen season and got a player who was a 5-star recruit and top 10 NFL Draft prospect, for the 62nd pick in the following draft.
I'll take that every time and not think about it at all. I have no idea why all the variables come into play, like scrutinizing everything Rosen did in 2018 or what anyone has said about him. That is simply too much work and not nearly the expected level of return on investment.
The single glaring tendency of this 12-month football era is absurd amount of time devoted to scrutiny of players and schemes during the offseason. I understand why Slimm does it because he's already looking at college underclassmen, so he'll know their level for several years instead of cram-coursing at the end. But to apply it to players already in the league or coaches already in the league strikes me as a colossal waste of time. However, there's a market for it on twitter and elsewhere so I guess that explains it. Fans want to believe the team or players they saw a season prior were unfairly restrained. It is exactly the opposite of Parcells', "You are what you are."
I don't know that Rosen can be dominant, whatever that means. For reference, it required 7.9 YPA to manage Top 10 in the league last season in that vital basic category. I remember when Top 10 used to be below 7.0. It jumped up sharply in 2004 and specifically 2004. The referees seemed to be particularly harsh on the defense that season, after the rules and application changes. Then it regressed for a while but now has climbed upwards again. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds in 2019. Every time there's a season like 2011 in which I think 8.0 will be required for Top 10, then there's another backtracking. Passer rating does continue to climb but I still have more faith in basic YPA because that category isn't as dependent on short touchdown passes, etc. Adjusted YPA is excellent also, probably somewhat superior to YPA or passer rating. We're at the margins there.
Josh Rosen averaged 8.0 YPA at UCLA. I'd be thrilled if he could restore anything close to that level. Seemingly in 2019 it would be more than acceptable on a poor team if he got to 7.0.
As djphinfan mentioned in another post, Rosen developed indecision and hitches in his game last season. That is not unheard of for an NFL rookie, since windows tighten. The guys who like to throw over the middle in college are more prone to that indecision in the NFL because the lanes are simply not there. Peyton Manning didn't care as a rookie and took those shots anyway. It was often funny with all the interceptions but Manning had confidence that his long term excellence would quickly apply to NFL level.