Interesting post, I was listening to the radio just now in the car, and Leroy Hoard said exactly the same thing about this particular play when it was brought up. He said that the timing on the play was bad and that as a result, Tannehill had to get more air under it to get the ball that far, and that's what killed the play.
Well then. I have a new analyst whose opinion I can actually seek out. :)
I don't want to make a big deal because there are reasons Mike Sherman did what he did on the play. I think there have been other plays this year with quicker timing and Wallace has had trouble getting open vertically because of good coverage and/or inability to get off the press. So in some ways Sherman has to be thinking fine we need to extend the timing to give Wallace a chance to get open. But then you extend that timing and if Wallace gets open on the play early and unimpeded then he's too damn far down the field and you're running into QB constraints. It's a tough catch-22 sometimes.
If the world were perfect, here is an example of the play design that would have made that play work. Fast-forward to the 0:35 mark of the following video if you want to know what the Wallace play SHOULD have looked like:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/20131...lights|contentId:0ap2000000283719&tab=analyze
On that play, Peyton Manning went from shotgun directly into his 3-step drop, and the drop timing did not call for a hitch step to be added on. It was SHOTGUN => 3-STEP => THROW. On the play from Tannehill it was SHOTGUN => PLAY-FAKE => 3-STEP => HITCH STEP => THROW.
I'm no coach. But I think of "3-step-WITH-hitch" and "3-step-NO-hitch" as being called as part of the play-call. I also think of play-fakes as being part of the play-call. So I don't know that Tannehill just decided to add a play-fake and a hitch to his timing on his own. I think it was part of the play-call.
There ends up being a big difference. Tannehill couldn't get that ball physically out of his hands until more than 3.0 seconds had passed. Peyton Manning had the football out of his hands and on the way into Demaryius Thomas' hands in less than 2.0 seconds.
As a result, Peyton could leisurely loft the ball 40 to 41 yards (measured in a direct line) and hit Demaryius perfectly in stride. Tannehill rocketed the football 50 to 51 yards (measured in a direct line) and the ball still ended up 5 yards underthrown. That's all due to the backfield timing of the play-call.
I'll finish with this. That ball came to Wallace about 41 or 42 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and it was underthrown. So the timing of the dictated Tannehill thrown 40+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Tom Brady has only completed 2 of 22 passes when throwing 40+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage from 2010 to 2013. Joe Flacco with his monstrous arm has only completed 11 of 53 at that distance.
It's not good to be throwing 40+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. There's a lot that can go wrong. It's one thing if it's off a second chance where the QB buys some time and he's got a guy streaking way down. But it's a very low-percentage pass.
I'm not sure how often you want to be building that kind of expectation into the play-call by delaying the timing with a play-fake and a gather step.
