Did Philbin learn anything from the Detroit game?

[Jeep]

As sad as it is to face... Philbin is still learning the in's and out's of being a head coach.. He's conservative by nature, but quickly learning that playing it safe and being conservative doesnt always win you games.. I dont think anyone will argue that you've seen improvement in his coaching ability and believe me.. I am not defending him or his decisions.. Just simply saying that "HE IS STILL LEARNING"...

One thing I believe opened his eyes against the Lions was their success with the fake punt and going for it on 4th down... In turn, Philbin/Lazor ordered their own fake punt but was caught with an illegal formation penalty... which in my opinion shows they never took that play seriously and practiced it, only because they had to... So my question to you.. Will Philbin and company take the trick plays a little more seriously and will we see them tonight or later in the year?

 

[roy_miami]

Fake punts are great but imo their effectiveness goes down dramatically when one has already been converted in a game. If Philbin decided to try an impromptu one just because Caldwell pulled one off then he's a moron. And Caldwell is a moron for trying a third one in the same game.

Philbin doesn't do impromptu, I'd give you a million to one odds that was something we practiced heavily and Philbin thought the situation was right for it. He didn't run it due to some lesson learned from Caldwell on the fly.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

What would he have learned?

Honestly, I believe that we should go for it more around midfield, but I believe that's the case for all NFL teams. I'm of the opinion that quite often on 4th and 6 or less, I'd take my chances on picking up 6 yards over shifting field position by 20 yards. Possessions matter.

 

[roy_miami]

And as far as learning lessons to close out games we're 0 for 9 when attempting passes to pick up the first, and I think we've probably tried every combination of run and pass and none of them worked. So how could he learn anything from that? In the Cheifs-Bills game Andy Reid called run-run-pass and they won. Why don't we take a lesson from them?

And the one time we actually picked up the first to close out a game was with 3 straight runs called against Indianapolis, so shouldn't the lesson be, if there is one, to just run it all the time?

 

[pags77]

On our second to last drive we went run for 5 yards, run for 0, and incomplete pass for a quick 3 and out. This is where we needed to convert. After a nice gain of 5, second down was begging for a play action pass and a TE in the flats for an easy first down. Sometimes the calls have to be made situationally, just can't say run the ball consecutively, especially with an average O line and back up RB's on the field.

 

[Fins1971]

If I were Philbin and end up in that same situation against this year here is what I would do.
Go for it on 4th down ala Bill Bellicheat.

What do you have to lose? Punting is not working in that situation. Put the game on the offense. If they fail try to stop them but let the other team score as quick as possible if you need to save time and give yourself a chance to win the game on a come from behind drive. We seem to be better at finishing games when we are behind.

RT17 has 4 come from behind wins in 10 tries and Zero 4 minute drives in 9 attempts.

 

[roy_miami]

On our second to last drive we went run for 5 yards, run for 0, and incomplete pass for a quick 3 and out. This is where we needed to convert. After a nice gain of 5, second down was begging for a play action pass and a TE in the flats for an easy first down. Sometimes the calls have to be made situationally, just can't say run the ball consecutively, especially with an average O line and back up RB's on the field.

Exactly. There are no absolutes, except that when you're trying to run the clock out, and that was our only goal at that point, it would be stupid to pass on every single down.

And you can see Philbin talking to Lazor on the sideline during the timeout after the first down run. I'm not a professional lip reader by any means but I think he says "you do what you got to do, I don't want to punt, got it?" The "I don't want to punt" part is clear (unless punt is punch, which wouldn't make sense). Philbin doesn't make these calls, he decides when its time to shut it down and go into clock mode (as he did in the Green Bay game). Thats it. And I would guess when we're not in clock mode the full playbook is available to Lazor.

 

[roy_miami]

If I were Philbin and end up in that same situation against this year here is what I would do.
Go for it on 4th down ala Bill Bellicheat.

What do you have to lose? Punting is not working in that situation. Put the game on the offense. If they fail try to stop them but let the other team score as quick as possible if you need to save time and give yourself a chance to win the game on a come from behind drive. We seem to be better at finishing games when we are behind.

RT17 has 4 come from behind wins in 10 tries and Zero 4 minute drives in 9 attempts.

That depends on what your definition of "not working" is. I believe the defense is now 5-5 in closing out games. I have no idea if that's good or terrible. And the defense actually should get the credit for one of Tannehill's comebacks, as it came on a walkoff safety.

 

[Fins1971]

That depends on what your definition of "not working" is. I believe the defense is now 5-5 in closing out games. I have no idea if that's good or terrible.

Clarification, not working this year. They have been good in the past but 0-2 this year.

I guess I should add that I would only do this if I was facing a very good QB like Rodgers and Stafford.

In the game logs it looks like when we punted the ball to GB and Detroit we still had a 75% chance of winning game. I think their analysis needs to take into account the QB. I felt like the odds were more like 50/50 after the punts with those QB leading the drive.

So when facing that 4th down and another good QB is waiting for the ball Philbin need to weigh the probability. What are the odds of converting a 4th and 5 or whatever the situation is? If they are anywhere near even you go for the 4th down and the win.

That is pretty much what Bellicheat did against the Colts years ago. Figured the odds of converting the 4th down were better than stopping Peyton on a last ditch drive. It didn't work out for Bellicheat but it was a smart call.

 

[roy_miami]

That would be a hell of a time for a fake punt though. We should totally do it if we're in that situation tonight.

 

[roy_miami]

That is pretty much what Bellicheat did against the Colts years ago. Figured the odds of converting the 4th down were better than stopping Peyton on a last ditch drive. It didn't work out for Bellicheat but it was a smart call.

And even Belichick took heavy, heavy criticism for that call. I had no problem with it. But that would be a fire-able offense for most coaches in the league if it doesn't work.

Plus he had Tom Brady, only the most clutch QB in the league. That makes it an easier call.

 

[MD]

More significant than the botched fake punt was the punt team baiting the Lions into trying a second fake which was defended exactly the way it's drawn up. It was a nice play by a unit that hasn't been living up to expectations and has been overlooked this week.

 

[nyashfan]

Question - what are people's philosophy regarding running reverses in these situations in which one critical 1st down is needed late in the game? These are high risk / high reward plays which can lose yardage as well as generate big gains? Why not try them on either 2nd or 3rd down? It could've been a good option on that critical 3rd and 5 last week. If it loses 5 yards, it's the same as an incomplete pass. Also, how about a quick out to the WR on 1st down? Those can pick up 7+ yards if the CB is playing off the line of scrimmage.

 

[Fins1971]

That would be a hell of a time for a fake punt though. We should totally do it if we're in that situation tonight.

I was at the Seahawks-Rams game this year when the Rams did that exact same thing.

Fisher knew they were losing if he punted. Seahawks had been moving the ball up and down the field in the 2nd half. Sometime you have to be unconventional to get the win.

 

[Fins1971]

Question - what are people's philosophy regarding running reverses in these situations? These are high risk / high reward plays which can lose yardage as well as generate big gains? Why not try them on either 2nd or 3rd down? It could've been a good option on that critical 3rd and 5 last week. If it loses 5 yards, it's the same as an incomplete pass. Also, how about a quick out to the WR on 1st down? Those can pick up 7+ yards if the CB is playing off the line of scrimmage.

Like Simms mentioned it like you are in the red zone. Reverses don't usually work close to the goal line. To many people close to line. You have to hit the back or receiver in motion in the flat and make them break a tackle or make someone miss. Get the ball to the outside quickly. Everyone on D is usually clogging the middle.