I took the Titans +6 today. It's almost solid 5.5s but 6 is my take number on the road if the favorite is .500 or worse so I grabbed the 6 at one joint. I can't see it going much higher although the favorites have been rising all year.
The only problem with this one is it's a non-division game so there is less familiarity and therefore less intensity and more possibility of a blowout. The games recently with losing teams giving 6 or more at home have almost all been division games:
* Green Bay -6 hosting Minnesota
* Green Bay -7 hosting Detroit
* Tennessee -7 hosting Houston
* Miami -6 hosting Buffalo
* Miami -9 hosting the Jets
That's one of my annual favorite systems but this year it's on a terrific roll and I can't remember such a high percentage of division games among the sample. Normally they don't give you as many points with the underdog in a division game but this season the public has been doing well on the favorites in general so they have no fear of betting up mediocre favorites in division games. They also haven't cashed any tickets on those games, but that's apparently irrelevant.
The road-non division after Monday night angle finally had a play and a nice winner on Sunday, capping a great Sunday. I mentioned that angle early in the year and it started out 4-0 then had a couple losers followed by a long lull with virtually no plays. In fact, I can't remember a season with so few plays on that system. You bet against any team that played on Monday night the week before if it plays on the road against a non-division opponent the following week. Last night the play was Chicago over Atlanta, which was a winner both first half and game. Atlanta has been nice enough to flop twice in that scenario this year, the first time in week two at Seattle. The Eagles even managed to cover a game when they benefitted by that system a few weeks ago, beating Green Bay 19-14 to barely cover a -4.5. But it was significant since Philly basically couldn't cover squat all year until they finally benefitted from that scheduling scenario against the Packers.