Dolphins' Mathematical Chance to Make Playoffs | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins' Mathematical Chance to Make Playoffs

K

killswitch

engage
Joined
May 17, 2004
Messages
389
Reaction score
0
UPDATE: mistake, ignore this thread



It's funny, but the Dolphins still aren't completely eliminated. Here's how.

Of course they must win their 2 remaining games, against NYJ and IND.

Then, in week 16, 5 other games must go their way. And in week 17, 6 other games must go their way. Here's essentially how all the games must go:

___________WEEK 16___________________ WEEK 17_______
NYJ (7-7): L(at MIA - 1:00p) ---> 7-8 .......L vs OAK ---> 7-9

BUF (7-7): L(vs TEN - 1:00p) ---> 7-8........L at BAL ---> 7-9

MIA (6-8): W(vs NYJ - 1:00p) ---> 7-8........W at IND ---> 8-8

CIN (8-6): W(at DEN - 4:15) ---> 9-6........W vs PIT ---> 10-6

JAX (8-6): L(vs NE - 1:00p) ---> 8-7........L at KC ---> 8-8

KC (7-7): L(at OAK - Sat8:00p) ---> 7-8....W vs JAX ---> 8-8

DEN (8-6): L(vs CIN - 4:15p) ---> 8-7........L vs SF ---> 8-8

Ten (7-7): W(at BUF - 1:00p) ---> 8-7........L vs NE ---> 8-8

Pit (7-7) L: (vs BAL - 1:00p) ---> 7-8........L at CIN ---> 7-9


Say the games were to all go this way. The Bengals would obviously make the first wild card spot at 10-6. The Jets, Bills and Steelers would all be eliminated at 7-9. 5 teams (Dolphins. Jaguars and Titans. Chiefs and Broncos) would be tied at 8-8.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, then the division tie-breaker is applied between the 2 teams that are tied within the same division. The Chiefs would win over the Broncos via best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. And the Titans would win over the Jaguars via best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

That would leave the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Titans left. And the the Dolphins would win via head-to-head sweep.

Assuming each team has a 50-50 chance of winning each game, the probablity that the Dolphins make the playoffs is .000122 or about 1 in 8,200.

Here's a link to the playoff tie-break methods for those interested: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers
 
and by the way the jets are 8-6, and even if we beat them and tie them at 8-8, they get in because of divisional record....we are mathimatically eliminated..like it or not
 
Parity...

Most years, with 2 weeks to go, there would be a fairly straight forward set of if-thens listing what various teams need to happen to get in. The above post seems fairly ridiculous, just with the number of teams that might be involved.

If the Bengals should manage to beat the Colts tonight, all four AFC divisions will have a second place team at 8 and 6, and a third place team at 7 and 7. Talk about parity! That's half the conference at .500 or one game up.

The NFC, of course, isn't that good...
 
MoneyBrown said:
and by the way the jets are 8-6, and even if we beat them and tie them at 8-8, they get in because of divisional record....we are mathimatically eliminated..like it or not
Click to expand...

[mod] Please don't circumvent the profanity filter.[/mod]
 
we r mathimatically elimanted, nothing can get us in, no matter if we win out and every team loses ahead of us.
 
We suck and we dont deserve to be in the playoff, let just start fresh and get rid of all these so called elite players and start from scratch ! ronnie, chambers, joey , c-pop , mare are all taking big chunks of money and not producing crap !
 
Use your head before you thread, use your head before you thread, use your head before you thread, use your head before you thread, now repeat after me . . .
 
Our mathematical chance to make the playoffs this year is exactly the same as Joey's QB rating yesterday.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom