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1) Dolphins' rebuilding plans. I don't know if general manager Chris Grier is a hardcore basketball fan, but his apparent plan for rebuilding the Miami Dolphins into a perennial contender seems eerily similar to the blueprint several NBA executives have used to revamp their respective squads into winners. Now, I'm not suggesting the Dolphins are adopting the "tanking" strategy that helped the Philadelphia 76ers become legitimate contenders in the NBA's Eastern Conference. But Grier is assembling the kind of draft capital that should enable the team to acquire enough blue-chip players to compete with the heavyweights in the NFL.
After a flurry of trades and massive personnel reshuffling, highlighted most recently by a deal that saw left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills head to the Texans, the Dolphins have four first-round picks and four second-round picks in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Drafts. In other words, Grier should have more than enough ammunition to put together a roster containing the requisite number of blue-chip players needed to contend.
As my colleague Daniel Jeremiah and I have frequently discussed on the "Move the Sticks" podcast, it takes about 12 blue-chip players to vie for the title, including a quarterback, two pass rushers, three defensive playmakers, three offensive playmakers, and three offensive linemen, though the final total can vary by a positional player or two.
Reviewing the Dolphins' roster, I believe Xavien Howard is the only blue-chip player on the team. The Pro Bowl cornerback, who is locked up through 2024, is arguably one of the best cover corners in the league, and his emergence as a "shutdown" guy should be the starting point for the team's rebuilding plans. Outside of No. 25, the Dolphins lack an established star -- the team can only hope that one or more of its recent top draft picks (2018 11th overall pick Minkah Fitzpatrick and this year's 13th overall pick, Christian Wilkins) will emerge as a blue-chip player in time.
"Championship teams have eight to 10 'blues' (blue-chip players) on the roster," said a former NFL vice president of player of personnel. "You need to have some stars to win in this league. It is better when they're homegrown guys who've been drafted and developed within your system. They become your core players and the foundation to the program ... Championship teams are built around those guys."
The next step for the Dolphins -- turning their picks into players -- can be challenging in today's NFL. My NFL Network colleague Charley Casserly believes the success rate of first-round picks amounts to a coin flip (as in, each first-rounder has a 50 percent chance of becoming a high-end starter), with the rates declining by about 10 percent for each subsequent round. Given those percentages, the Dolphins have their work cut out for them when it comes to rebuilding their team through the draft.
"They've done a great job of acquiring picks, but they have to get the right players," said the former NFL exec. "Since they don't have a lot of blue-chip players already on their roster, I believe they need to find at least four 'elite' players or high-end starters with those eight picks ... They can't afford to miss in the early rounds, because those busts would set back the rebuilding process ... I like what they've done, but it definitely puts pressure on Grier to knock it out of the park on draft day."
With that in mind, the Dolphins have to buck the odds if they want to pull off a quick rebuild in the Brian Flores era. The defensive-minded first-year head coach will need to keep games competitive with lesser players at the outset of his tenure, at least, until Grier can stockpile the roster with enough ballers to actually win games. Flores' experience as an assistant in New England could help him scheme up a few wins thorough clever game-planning and tactical execution, but winning consistently in the NFL still comes down to talent. The Dolphins need to strike gold in the next two drafts to become the winner Grier envisions taking over the AFC.
www.nfl.com
After a flurry of trades and massive personnel reshuffling, highlighted most recently by a deal that saw left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills head to the Texans, the Dolphins have four first-round picks and four second-round picks in the 2020 and 2021 NFL Drafts. In other words, Grier should have more than enough ammunition to put together a roster containing the requisite number of blue-chip players needed to contend.
As my colleague Daniel Jeremiah and I have frequently discussed on the "Move the Sticks" podcast, it takes about 12 blue-chip players to vie for the title, including a quarterback, two pass rushers, three defensive playmakers, three offensive playmakers, and three offensive linemen, though the final total can vary by a positional player or two.
Reviewing the Dolphins' roster, I believe Xavien Howard is the only blue-chip player on the team. The Pro Bowl cornerback, who is locked up through 2024, is arguably one of the best cover corners in the league, and his emergence as a "shutdown" guy should be the starting point for the team's rebuilding plans. Outside of No. 25, the Dolphins lack an established star -- the team can only hope that one or more of its recent top draft picks (2018 11th overall pick Minkah Fitzpatrick and this year's 13th overall pick, Christian Wilkins) will emerge as a blue-chip player in time.
"Championship teams have eight to 10 'blues' (blue-chip players) on the roster," said a former NFL vice president of player of personnel. "You need to have some stars to win in this league. It is better when they're homegrown guys who've been drafted and developed within your system. They become your core players and the foundation to the program ... Championship teams are built around those guys."
The next step for the Dolphins -- turning their picks into players -- can be challenging in today's NFL. My NFL Network colleague Charley Casserly believes the success rate of first-round picks amounts to a coin flip (as in, each first-rounder has a 50 percent chance of becoming a high-end starter), with the rates declining by about 10 percent for each subsequent round. Given those percentages, the Dolphins have their work cut out for them when it comes to rebuilding their team through the draft.
"They've done a great job of acquiring picks, but they have to get the right players," said the former NFL exec. "Since they don't have a lot of blue-chip players already on their roster, I believe they need to find at least four 'elite' players or high-end starters with those eight picks ... They can't afford to miss in the early rounds, because those busts would set back the rebuilding process ... I like what they've done, but it definitely puts pressure on Grier to knock it out of the park on draft day."
With that in mind, the Dolphins have to buck the odds if they want to pull off a quick rebuild in the Brian Flores era. The defensive-minded first-year head coach will need to keep games competitive with lesser players at the outset of his tenure, at least, until Grier can stockpile the roster with enough ballers to actually win games. Flores' experience as an assistant in New England could help him scheme up a few wins thorough clever game-planning and tactical execution, but winning consistently in the NFL still comes down to talent. The Dolphins need to strike gold in the next two drafts to become the winner Grier envisions taking over the AFC.
Three dark-horse contenders in 2019; Dolphins MUST ace draft
Bucky Brooks says the Denver Broncos are among three teams he likes as dark-horse contenders in 2019. Find out which other clubs make his list, and what the Dolphins must do to become a winner.
www.nfl.com
