Dolphins Offseason Thread (OTA's, Mini-Camp, Etc.) | Page 26 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins Offseason Thread (OTA's, Mini-Camp, Etc.)

4 current/former Dolphins made PFFs top 10 comeback player of the year for 2025.

Tua number 5 in PFF comeback players of the year for 2025, and we had actually 4 players in the top 10, well one former but still, inury prone players except Wilkins getting injured again? Who couldve predicted

5. QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins appeared to be a team on the rise after securing their first 11-win season since 2008, but momentum was quickly halted in Week 2 when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was diagnosed with his third concussion in two years. Later in the season, a hip injury sidelined him for the final two games, bringing his total games missed to six — another frustrating chapter in what has been an injury-marred career in Miami.

Tagovailoa’s best and only fully healthy season came in 2023, when he started all 18 games, including the playoffs. He led all quarterbacks that year with an 88.6 PFF passing grade and logged 36 big-time throws on 600 attempts, doubling his previous career high from 2022.

With a roster already facing depth concerns, the Dolphins can't afford another season derailed by quarterback injuries. Tagovailoa’s health will be one of the defining factors in Miami’s 2025 campaign, and another extended absence would raise serious questions about his long-term viability as the franchise’s $212.4 million investment.



9. ED Bradley Chubb/Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins

While the loss of Tua Tagovailoa understandably dominated headlines in Miami last season, the Dolphins also suffered significant blows on defense. Bradley Chubb missed the entire season while recovering from a torn ACL suffered in December 2023. And then Jaelan Phillips was lost for the year in Week 4 after tearing his ACL, his second major injury in less than 12 months, following a torn Achilles in November 2023.

Chubb was in the midst of a career-best season when he went down, earning an 88.8 PFF grade, 12th among 112 qualifying edge defenders in 2023. He set personal highs in total pressures (70), pass-rush grade (84.9), run-defense grade (71.1) and coverage grade (88.5).

Phillips was an ascending star before injuries derailed his progress. In 2022, his second NFL season, he posted a 90.1 pass-rush grade and made a massive leap in run defense, improving from a 44.8 grade as a rookie to 74.8. With promising young pass-rusher Chop Robinson, who ranked among the top 20 in pressures as a rookie, already in the mix, the potential return of a fully healthy Chubb and Phillips could give Miami one of the most dangerous edge units in the league.

10. DI Christian Wilkins, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders made a major investment in Christian Wilkins in March 2023, signing him to a four-year, $110 million deal, making him the second-highest-paid defensive tackle in the league. Unfortunately, Wilkins appeared in just five games last season before suffering a season-ending Jones fracture in his foot. There is speculation that he may require a second procedure, which could delay his return well into the 2025 season.

Prior to the injury, Wilkins was one of the NFL’s most durable interior defenders. He logged a league-high 1,990 snaps across the 2022 and 2023 seasons among defensive tackles and hadn’t missed a game since 2020. His best play came in 2021 and 2022, when he consistently ranked among the top 10 interior defenders in the league.

To shore up depth, the Raiders selected Tonka Hemingway (South Carolina) in the fourth round and JJ Pegues (Ole Miss) in the sixth. While both rookies could contribute, the defense — which ranked 30th in team grade last season (57.3) — will desperately need Wilkins back in the lineup to return to form.


 
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Waddle fantasy projection, the last sentence does worry me with his history:

PLAYER PERFORMANCE

Waddle was the sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft. He immediately became the top wide receiver on a Dolphins depth chart that had DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Mack Hollins. His 7.0-yard average depth of target was the lowest of his career, leading to a low 9.8 yards per reception. He earned 104 receptions for 1,015 yards. He finished 15th in fantasy points per game.

The Dolphins made some major changes in 2022, including adding Mike McDaniel as head coach and trading for Tyreek Hill, which moved Waddle to the second wide receiver spot on the depth chart. Waddle only experienced a slight decrease in target rate, but his average depth of target jumped up to 12.2 yards. He remained great after the catch, leading to a high 18.1 yards per reception. He moved up to 13th in fantasy points per game, while Hill finished third.

In 2023, the Dolphins continued to have the entire passing game go through Hill and Waddle. In the past decade, there have only been three cases where a pair of players received over 50% of their team’s targets in back-to-back seasons, joining the Denver Broncos of 2015 and 2016 with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in addition to the 2022 and 2023 Philadelphia Eagles with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Dolphins accomplished this despite Waddle missing three games. His target rate increased dramatically, but he was less effective on a per-reception basis. This led to fewer receiving yards but a better receiving grade.

Injuries started to become a problem for Waddle at the start of the 2022 season. He started the season in the injury report due to a quadricep injury, spent two weeks off the report and then spent nearly a month with a groin injury, over a month with a shoulder injury and a week with a fibula injury before he was listed again with a shoulder followed by an ankle to end the season. In 2023, it was an oblique, followed by a concussion, which cost him a game. He returned and was relatively healthy for a month but then dealt with back, knee and ankle injuries that cost him the final two games of the regular season.

Last season was the worst of Waddle’s career, but he was relatively healthy throughout. He caught five passes for 109 yards in Week 1. He averaged 32 yards per game over the following five games with Tua Tagovailoa out. He showed up on the injury report for a week due to a quadricep injury, but he still struggled for another month with 34 yards per game during a four-game stretch. He finally returned to form for three weeks, finishing with 21 receptions for 296 and a touchdown over three weeks. He suffered a knee injury in the following game, costing him two games, and then returned to a quiet game. While Waddle didn’t appear on the injury report nearly as much in 2024 as the previous two seasons, his NGS Tracking Data suggests his speed was slower last season compared to previous years.

Despite the injuries and low level of play last season, he’s still among the better receivers once the ball is in his hands. His 5.8 yards after the catch per catch over the last three years is second-best among all wide receivers. This has helped him gain at least 10 yards on 69.3% of his receptions, which is also the second-highest rate.


PROJECTED ROLE

Waddle has been the team’s X receiver by his pre-snap alignment, but his usage is different than most X receivers. His average depth of target has decreased each season, as has his deep target rate and, naturally, his contested target rate.

His primary competition for targets remains Tyreek Hill, although there have been trade rumors on and off throughout the season. Waddle is around the age when wide receivers peak, while Hill is around the age when wide receivers retire, so it’s possible that Waddle becomes the team’s target leader. The Dolphins have tried out several different wide receivers for the third, fourth and fifth spots on the depth chart during Mike McDaniel’s term. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine appears to be taking that third role this season, despite competition from Malik Washington. None of them will threaten Waddle’s target rate, and one will need to step up if Hill is traded.

The Dolphins added Jonnu Smith last season, leading to the Dolphins targeting tight ends 99 more times in 2024 than in 2023. De’Von Achane emerged as more of a receiver out of the backfield, leading to a few more targets to running backs compared to the previous year. This led to 85 fewer targets for wide receivers. It’s hard to tell how much of this Smith and Achane stepped up compared to how much Hill and Waddle had a down season. It will be difficult for Hill and Waddle to return to 2023 levels while Smith and Achane stay at 2024 levels because there are only so many touches to go around.


IMPACT OF TEAMMATES

Waddle will continue catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, as he has throughout his career, and will be entering his fourth season with Mike McDaniel as his head coach. Tagovailoa’s generally strong passing and low deep target rate have benefited Waddle. His ability to avoid sacks and scrambles has also helped Waddle and will continue to help all of the skill players in Miami.

McDaniel has a history of rotating his star wide receivers out more than most teams, which is why Waddle’s route snap percentage is relatively low compared to wide receivers of his caliber. That is unlikely to change anytime soon, especially with Hill and Waddle’s injury history.


BOTTOM LINE

Waddle is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver at his best, but he had a down season last year, and there is no clear reason why. It was probably the cumulative effect of injuries over several years. If that’s the case, maybe he’ll be back to normal next year, but it’s also possible he’ll never be back to being the same player.
 
PFF ranked all 8 divisions, guess the AFC Least is back, division ranked 7th out of 9 overall which is the lowest rating in years.

1. NFC NORTH: LIONS, VIKINGS, PACKERS, BEARS

Cumulative over/under win total: 37

The Lions, Vikings and Packers all finished the 2024 season ranked inside the top 10 of PFF’s power rankings. The Bears were the only team in the NFC North to fall outside that range, landing at No. 24. However, with significant upgrades to their interior offensive line — which posted just a 70.1 blocking grade — and sweeping changes to the coaching staff, Chicago is a legitimate dark horse to contend for a wild-card spot.

Coaching transitions in Detroit and a quarterback change in Minnesota add some uncertainty, but top to bottom, this division is loaded with competitive rosters. Every NFC North matchup in 2025 figures to be a battle — a true murderer’s row on the divisional slate.

2. AFC WEST: CHIEFS, CHARGERS, RAIDERS, BRONCOS

Cumulative over/under win total: 37

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, winners of nine straight AFC West titles and fresh off a third consecutive conference championship. They remain the team to beat, finishing last season ranked No. 2 in PFF’s power rankings. But the gap may be closing. The Broncos, who ranked fourth in team defensive grade (78.8) and second in EPA allowed per play in 2024, made notable additions with Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Jahdae Barron. If Bo Nix takes a step forward in his second season, Denver could quickly become one of the league’s toughest opponents.

Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are coming off a wild-card berth and are built to contend for double-digit wins again in 2025. And even the “worst” team in the division — now led by Pete Carroll with Geno Smith at quarterback — is far from an easy out. There’s no soft landing in the AFC West anymore.

3. NFC WEST: RAMS, CARDINALS, SEAHAWKS, 49ERS

Cumulative over/under win total: 37

If the Cardinals take the next step — and there’s reason to believe they can — the NFC West could turn into a four-team slugfest. Kyler Murray quietly posted his second-highest big-time throw rate (4.7%) in 2024 while keeping his turnover-worthy play percentage at a career-low 2.4%. With the defensive reinforcements Arizona added this offseason, they’re well-positioned to push for a 10-win campaign.

The Rams remain one of the toughest outs in the league, and if not for the blizzard in their playoff game against the Eagles, they might have been on their way to the NFC Championship Game. Seattle faces more uncertainty, with Sam Darnold stepping in at quarterback and no D.K. Metcalf in the receiving corps. As for the 49ers, health will be the biggest variable, but one key area they addressed was the run defense, which ranked 28th in the NFL last year in terms of run-defense grade. Their draft class should go a long way toward correcting that.

4. AFC NORTH: RAVENS, BENGALS, STEELERS, BROWNS

Cumulative over/under win total: 34

The AFC North remains a competitive division, but it’s no longer the juggernaut it was just a few years ago. The Ravens have claimed back-to-back division titles and are firmly in their Super Bowl window heading into 2025. The Bengals, with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all returning, should again field one of the league’s most dangerous offenses. However, their defense regressed in 2024, ranking 20th in EPA per play. Getting Trey Hendrickson back on the field and in the fold could be key — if the defense can hold up, Burrow is more than capable of carrying them to a playoff berth.

In Pittsburgh, it's nearly sacrilegious to predict a losing season, but despite having one of the league’s best defensive lines, there’s little to get excited about offensively. The team still hasn't locked in Aaron Rodgers, and even if they do, it’s questionable how well he fits Arthur Smith’s scheme. If not Rodgers, rookie Will Howard could end up being the guy — a major gamble in a competitive division.

As for the Browns, their quarterback situation is a full-blown mystery, with four players reportedly in contention for the starting job. Kevin Stefanski has two Coach of the Year awards, but the team’s win total projection (4.5) tells the story.


5. NFC EAST: EAGLES, COMMANDERS, COWBOYS, GIANTS

Cumulative over/under win total: 34

The NFC East sent both representatives to the NFC championship game last January, but those two teams — the Eagles and Commanders — are carrying most of the weight for the division as a whole.

Philadelphia lost key talent in free agency, but reloaded effectively enough to remain one of the favorites to return to the Super Bowl in 2025. Washington, meanwhile, struck gold with Jayden Daniels, who earned PFF’s Rookie of the Year honors. The offense looks promising, but the defense must improve after ranking 29th in team grade (60.0), including a 54.2 run-defense grade and just 258 total pressures (21st). Upgrades in the front seven are a step in the right direction.

The Cowboys were derailed by injuries at quarterback last season, and while the arrival of Brian Schottenheimer as head coach brings some uncertainty, they still have the talent to be competitive — especially if the run defense, which graded out at a league-worst 49.3 in 2024, can bounce back.

As for the Giants, their quarterback situation remains unresolved, with three players currently in contention for the starting role. The offensive line hasn’t seen meaningful improvement, which raises concerns regardless of who starts under center. However, the additions of Paulson Adebo and Jevon Hollandshould help bolster a secondary that ranked 26th in coverage grade (52.5) last season.

6. NFC SOUTH: BUCS, FALCONS, PANTHERS, SAINTS

Cumulative over/under win total: 30

The Buccaneers have claimed the NFC South crown in four straight seasons, matching the Saints’ longest run since the division’s inception in 2002. Despite losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Tampa Bay brings back much of its core and projects once again as the division favorite, hovering around a 10-win expectation.

The Falcons could be primed for a breakout offensively. They boast a strong offensive line, elite skill talent in Drake London and Bijan Robinson, and the potential for fireworks if Michael Penix Jr. — who ended the 2024 season with a stellar 94.5 passing grade in Week 18 — is unleashed. Their defense, however, remains a concern and could be what holds them back from true contention.

The Panthers were among the league’s worst teams last year, finishing 31st in PFF’s power rankings and earning a dismal 45.0 team defensive grade, including just a 37.5 grade against the run. That said, they’ve made major upgrades on defense through both free agency and the draft and added a true WR1 in Tetiaroa McMillan. Carolina could be a sneaky riser in 2025 if those pieces click.

The Saints, meanwhile, appear headed for a rebuild. With Derek Carr now retired, uncertainty at quarterback looms, and the roster around that position may not be strong enough to compensate. A long year could be ahead in New Orleans.

7. AFC EAST: BILLS, PATRIOTS, DOLPHINS, JETS

Cumulative over/under win total: 34

The Bills have claimed the AFC East title five years running and remain well-positioned to extend that streak. Josh Allen continues to play at an elite level, posting five consecutive seasons with a top-tier offensive grade, a testament to his consistency and ceiling as one of the game’s most impactful quarterbacks.

The Patriots, meanwhile, may surprise people. Despite coming off a rough 2024 campaign, their over/under win total of 8.5 reflects major organizational changes. The roster and coaching staff are virtually unrecognizable from a year ago. If rookie quarterback Drake Maye takes a meaningful step forward, New England could enter the playoff conversation.

The Dolphins took a clear step back in 2024, finishing with eight wins, and expectations shouldn’t be much higher in 2025. With lingering questions on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to project significant improvement, and a slight regression wouldn’t be surprising.

Then there’s the Jets, arguably the biggest wildcard in the division. With Justin Fields under center, expect a run-heavy approach and plenty of close games. The defense should keep them competitive, but whether they can turn those close contests into wins remains to be seen.

8. AFC SOUTH: TEXANS, JAGUARS, COLTS, TITANS

Cumulative over/under win total: 30

The Texans captured their second straight AFC South title in 2024 behind rising star C.J. Stroud, but their offensive line remains a concern. Outside of Laremy Tunsil — who’s no longer with the team — no lineman earned a grade above 70.5 last season. That said, Houston’s defense should continue to fly around and keep them atop the division as the team to beat.

The Jaguars are firmly in the mix, as well. Their success may hinge on how quickly new offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Trevor Lawrence can establish chemistry. Much will also depend on how they utilize two-way talent Travis Hunter, whose impact could be felt on both sides of the ball.

The Colts face uncertainty at quarterback, but their defense provides a solid foundation. They earned a 74.5 team defensive grade in 2024 and could take another step forward this year.

As for the Titans, the rebuild is still in full swing. Even with Cam Ward under center, they enter 2025 as a team likely headed for another top-five draft pick. After finishing as PFF’s lowest-ranked team last season, expectations remain low while they work to reshape the roster.
The article is just wrong about Allen playing at an elite level for 5 years straight. In 2 out of 5 he’s had elite QB numbers. The middle 3 during this time were average.
The media is doing the lazy thing and looking at team accomplishments and attributing them to individuals. Not to mention that in the past 5 years he’s played in 12 playoff games and has been average once and below average in 5. That’s 50% of being average or worse.
 
The article is just wrong about Allen playing at an elite level for 5 years straight. In 2 out of 5 he’s had elite QB numbers. The middle 3 during this time were average.
The media is doing the lazy thing and looking at team accomplishments and attributing them to individuals. Not to mention that in the past 5 years he’s played in 12 playoff games and has been average once and below average in 5. That’s 50% of being average or worse.

They are basing it off PFF grade cause it’s a PFF article, PFF score first, so he never has less than a 90 PFF grade the past 5 seasons.

PFF score Comp. YDS. AVG. TD. INT. LNG SCK RATE. QBR
2020 90.3. 69.2 4,544 7.9 37 10 55 26 107.2 76.6
2021 90.9 63.3 4,407 6.8 36 15 61 26 92.2 66.3
2022 91.8 63.3 4,283 7.6 35 14 98 33 96.6 73.4
2023 92.1. 66.5 4,306 7.4 29 18 81 24 92.2 70.3
2024 91.9. 63.6 3,731 7.7 28 6 64 14 101.4 77.3
 
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OTCs thought on value of Jonah trade

5. Dolphins select G Jonah Savaiinaea

Implied Cost: 591 points(The 115th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $6.58M/Year

SelectionPointsExpected Value AddedTraded PicksPointsExpected Value Lost
371,170$8,041,528481,038$8,618,806
148468$3,881,66898676$5,615,985
135514$4,268,450
Total1,638$11,923,1962,229$18,503,241
This is another example of trading up into a position you probably should not be trading up for. The team loses out on value by dropping to the non-premium tier of positions and gives away their comp pick along with a swap in the middle of the draft. The value given up here is really big meaning the player has to be a higher end starter to make up that difference. That isn’t impossible but it is not likely
 
They are basing it off PFF grade cause it’s a PFF article, PFF score first, so he never has less than a 90 PFF grade the past 5 seasons.

PFF score Comp. YDS. AVG. TD. INT. LNG SCK RATE. QBR
2020 90.3. 69.2 4,544 7.9 37 10 55 26 107.2 76.6
2021 90.9 63.3 4,407 6.8 36 15 61 26 92.2 66.3
2022 91.8 63.3 4,283 7.6 35 14 98 33 96.6 73.4
2023 92.1. 66.5 4,306 7.4 29 18 81 24 92.2 70.3
2024 91.9. 63.6 3,731 7.7 28 6 64 14 101.4 77.3
So they have some sort of a formula using those stats to create a grade? Do you know what “LNG” means or how each stat is weighted? I thought I’d ask before I try to find out on my own in case you already know.
 
OTCs thought on value of Jonah trade

5. Dolphins select G Jonah Savaiinaea

Implied Cost: 591 points(The 115th pick in the draft)

Implied Salary Lost: $6.58M/Year

SelectionPointsExpected Value AddedTraded PicksPointsExpected Value Lost
371,170$8,041,528481,038$8,618,806
148468$3,881,66898676$5,615,985
135514$4,268,450
Total1,638$11,923,1962,229$18,503,241
This is another example of trading up into a position you probably should not be trading up for. The team loses out on value by dropping to the non-premium tier of positions and gives away their comp pick along with a swap in the middle of the draft. The value given up here is really big meaning the player has to be a higher end starter to make up that difference. That isn’t impossible but it is not likely
I say this in the nicest possible way, all of these articles and stats you keep posting, while appreciated, may be served in a better thread. Perhaps a 'catch all' of the information you come across, as opposed to the one about tweets/news about offseason activities
 
So they have some sort of a formula using those stats to create a grade? Do you know what “LNG” means or how each stat is weighted? I thought I’d ask before I try to find out on my own in case you already know.
Yea the longest completed pass play of the year by yardage

The PFF grades and stats afterward have no correlation, those are just his stats for the year so you could see the context of his numbers vs his PFF grades.
 
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