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Dolphins Over-Under Is Set

Kyndig said:
Ha! Best way is for Mcdaniel to simply calm more runs!
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Out of curiosity, how many more per game would be appropriate, in your opinion?

I ask because as little as 3 more changes the run/pass ratio by possibly as much as 7-9 percent, which is too much from a balance standpoint, IMO.

I think a better case can be made that running "better" situationally is more important than simply increasing the quantity for the sake of doing it.
 
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For those that bet team win totals a strong play right now is Pittsburgh Over 8.5 wins.
Tomlin has never had a losing record and their schedule is pretty easy.
If Lamar leaves Baltimore I imagine this total will go up.
 
So Be said:
Not true IF you are selective. Miami has won me a lot of money by knowing them BUT not blindly betting on them. Normally 4-5 games a year.

Every serous gambler know you are never playing with house money. Yo stop it is in your pocket not the house's.
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Definitely good advice… I should probably have not used the word “serious”there…what I meant to expouse is that a lot of amatuer bettors will make the fatal mistake of bettin with their hearts ( ie: on their team) steada their minds… Now I definitely have a different take on house money…some of my best parlays have come from having lots in my pocket from a previous win and then betting smart but with abandon. But we better not talk too much about this so be… The youngsters may be watching. 👁
 
RMLogic said:
For those that bet team win totals a strong play right now is Pittsburgh Over 8.5 wins.
Tomlin has never had a losing record and their schedule is pretty easy.
If Lamar leaves Baltimore I imagine this total will go up.
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No I only bet on my own team! Ha ha no those are pretty good - but the Steelers? What’s That damn franchise got at quarterback anyway oh yeah… Yeah not bad.
 
Mach2 said:
Out of curiosity, how many more per game would be appropriate, in your opinion?

I ask because as little as 3 more changes the run/pass ratio by possibly as much as 7-9 percent, which is too much from a balance standpoint, IMO.

I think a better case can be made that running "better" situationally is more important than simply increasing the quantity for the sake of doing it.
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Yes. There were games where the defense was playing deep. Linebackers sitting 18 yards back. That’s when we should’ve run it down their throats. More runs, more play action. Probably at least 20% more than we did run is what my gut tells me.
 
As it stands right now I'd take the over but I don't think it's unreasonable. We are only 2 or 3 injuries from falling below that imho, especially with that schedule. 8 playoff teams plus the Jets and Pats twice, that's 12 very hard games. If we lose Tua, Hill or Ramsey/Howard then the under is very possible.

Anyone taking the over right now is basically gambling that we don't get injuries, the under people are betting we will get injuries.
 
Kyndig said:
Yes. There were games where the defense was playing deep. Linebackers sitting 18 yards back. That’s when we should’ve run it down their throats. More runs, more play action. Probably at least 20% more than we did run is what my gut tells me.
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20% would make us the most run heavy team in the league, far under the league average of R/P ratio, and would not be a Championship vs winning formula, IMO.
 
Mach2 said:
20% would make us the most run heavy team in the league, far under the league average of R/P ratio, and would not be a Championship vs winning formula, IMO.
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What are you talking about?

So we had 390 rushing attempts last year Which was 2nd lowest in the league. If we increased our attempts by 20% then

390 * 1.2 = 468 rushing attempts. That would put us at 14th, which would be right in the middle of the pack, between the Lions and the saints.

I think that if we were at least there, we convert a few more of those first downs, maybe get the opposing defense to play a bit more forward and not cheat by linebackers sitting on those routes 18 yards deep, open up the play action game which should help our passing game, eat up more time of possession which would keep the opposing offense off of the field and give our defense more of a blow so they could get after the opposing teams QB. We should attack every blade of grass, and combine increased rushing attempts with a few more passes out of the backfield. We could then at our time of choosing hit those explosive deep plays down the field.

Yes, a 20% more rushing attempts would be helpful and probably would’ve translated into a couple of more wins last year. Based on those numbers we could even go a bit higher. The 49ers Were at 504 (9th) The eagles were at 544 (#3).

I think with our defensive talent and scheme, and our offensive capabilities, we should use everything at our disposal and not just throw it deep, but increase our rushing attempts so that we are in the top 10 in rushing attempts and rushing yards in the entire league.

This is something we should really make an effort on this year. It’ll help protect Tua, it will help our defense, it will make our offense more dangerous, so yeah 20% maybe even 30% More rushing attempts than last year.

Believe it baby!

www.nfl.com

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
 
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Kyndig said:
What are you talking about?

So we had 390 rushing attempts last year Which was 2nd lowest in the league. If we increased our attempts by 20% then

390 * 1.2 = 468 rushing attempts. That would put us at 14th, which would be right in the middle of the pack, between the Lions and the saints.

I think that if we were at least there, we convert a few more of those first downs, maybe get the opposing defense to play a bit more forward and not cheat by linebackers sitting on those routes 18 yards deep, open up the play action game which should help our passing game, eat up more time of possession which would keep the opposing offense off of the field and give our defense more of a blow so they could get after the opposing teams QB. We should attack every blade of grass, and combine increased rushing attempts with a few more passes out of the backfield. We could then at our time of choosing hit those explosive deep plays down the field.

Yes, a 20% more rushing attempts would be helpful and probably would’ve translated into a couple of more wins last year. Based on those numbers we could even go a bit higher. The 49ers Were at 504 (9th) The eagles were at 544 (#3).

I think with our defensive talent and scheme, and our offensive capabilities, we should use everything at our disposal and not just throw it deep, but increase our rushing attempts so that we are in the top 10 in rushing attempts and rushing yards in the entire league.

This is something we should really make an effort on this year. It’ll help protect Tua, it will help our defense, it will make our offense more dangerous, so yeah 20% maybe even 30% More rushing attempts than last year.

Believe it baby!

www.nfl.com

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
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Small change, yes. Big change, no.

The average pass attempt netted Miami 8.2 yards in 2022, while the average run generated 4.3 yards.

IMO, finding a few more situations per game to run the ball, especially on short yardage, makes sense. Getting more attempts also makes sense. But that‘s not easy if you‘re swapping out yards. You need almost 2x the production to accomplish the same yardage result and the margin for error becomes very small.
 
Kyndig said:
What are you talking about?

So we had 390 rushing attempts last year Which was 2nd lowest in the league. If we increased our attempts by 20% then

390 * 1.2 = 468 rushing attempts. That would put us at 14th, which would be right in the middle of the pack, between the Lions and the saints.

I think that if we were at least there, we convert a few more of those first downs, maybe get the opposing defense to play a bit more forward and not cheat by linebackers sitting on those routes 18 yards deep, open up the play action game which should help our passing game, eat up more time of possession which would keep the opposing offense off of the field and give our defense more of a blow so they could get after the opposing teams QB. We should attack every blade of grass, and combine increased rushing attempts with a few more passes out of the backfield. We could then at our time of choosing hit those explosive deep plays down the field.

Yes, a 20% more rushing attempts would be helpful and probably would’ve translated into a couple of more wins last year. Based on those numbers we could even go a bit higher. The 49ers Were at 504 (9th) The eagles were at 544 (#3).

I think with our defensive talent and scheme, and our offensive capabilities, we should use everything at our disposal and not just throw it deep, but increase our rushing attempts so that we are in the top 10 in rushing attempts and rushing yards in the entire league.

This is something we should really make an effort on this year. It’ll help protect Tua, it will help our defense, it will make our offense more dangerous, so yeah 20% maybe even 30% More rushing attempts than last year.

Believe it baby!

www.nfl.com

NFL.com | Official Site of the National Football League

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
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What are you talking about? You are conflating total number and percentage. It would be great if we had a bunch more total offensive plays, but that does not, necessarily indicate the run/pass ratio, or the play call balance. We were 26th in offensive plays run. Comparing total number of runs to a team, as an example, that had 150 more plays in total is a flawed comparison.

We ran the ball 38.7% of the time. if you increase that by 20% you are approaching a 60% clip. Only two teams rushed more than passed last year, Atlanta and Chicago (both nearly 50/50), and Chicago's % is increased due to a QB who runs a lot. I'm almost positive you don't want to emulate those team's.

We were the #8 in pass percentage last year at 61.3%, which is arguably higher than optimum, but it's less than 3% higher than league mean. That really only amounts to a couple more runs per game.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=passpct
 
8 to 10 win.. Tough schedule but best team will make playoff.
 
AquaHawk said:
Small change, yes. Big change, no.

The average pass attempt netted Miami 8.2 yards in 2022, while the average run generated 4.3 yards.

IMO, finding a few more situations per game to run the ball, especially on short yardage, makes sense. Getting more attempts also makes sense. But that‘s not easy if you‘re swapping out yards. You need almost 2x the production to accomplish the same yardage result and the margin for error becomes very small.
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The flaw in your argument is that you are taking the average over the entire year. If you look at what happened from the 49ers game on, while Tua was starting or playing QB you will see that our offensive production went way down because Tua and McDaniels kept going to the deep ball and teams schemed and took it away and it was predictable, if we had run the ball more, we would’ve converted more plays into first downs, and we would’ve forced the defense to adapt to us. We would’ve take. What the defense gave us.

No, we did t run enough! 2nd fewest attempts in the entire league? Are u kidding me? Didn’t help our struggling defense either.
 
Mach2 said:
What are you talking about? You are conflating total number and percentage. It would be great if we had a bunch more total offensive plays, but that does not, necessarily indicate the run/pass ratio, or the play call balance. We were 26th in offensive plays run. Comparing total number of runs to a team, as an example, that had 150 more plays in total is a flawed comparison.

We ran the ball 38.7% of the time. if you increase that by 20% you are approaching a 60% clip. Only two teams rushed more than passed last year, Atlanta and Chicago (both nearly 50/50), and Chicago's % is increased due to a QB who runs a lot. I'm almost positive you don't want to emulate those team's.

We were the #8 in pass percentage last year at 61.3%, which is arguably higher than optimum, but it's less than 3% higher than league mean. That really only amounts to a couple more runs per game.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=passpct
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Balderdash! We had the 2nd fewest Rushing attempts per game. Situationally, we would’ve benefited significantly from raising those
Attempts especially situationally. 20% is probably not enough of an increase. Two halves of the season. The second half of the season our offensive production dropped significantly and part of that was McDaniels and Tua being too stubborn with the deep ball and passing in general and not taking advantage of the wide open rushing lanes opposing defenses were giving us. In fact, there is an argument, especially on 3rd and short, that we would’ve actually had more total offensive plays if we had ran the ball 20% more attempts. We became predictable and then we weren’t converting 3rd downs in the second half of the season. We needed to mix up more run plays, which would’ve opened up more play action, which would’ve controlled the clock more, kept the opposing offense off the field and helped our defense. The logic to my argument is unassailable.
 
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