Dolphins playoffs odds near 85 percent ... if you follow one recent trend | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins playoffs odds near 85 percent ... if you follow one recent trend

datruth55

datruth55

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Pencil the Dolphins in for the playoffs -- at least if you're judging by one recent trend.

In the previous three NFL seasons, 39 teams have had winning streaks of four or more games -- like the Dolphins are on now -- and 33 of those teams (84.6 percent) made the playoffs.

If the Dolphins (5-4) defeat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, their odds jump even more. In the past three seasons, 23 of the 26 teams (88.5 percent) that have gone on winning streaks of five or more games made the playoffs.

Of course not many of those teams started 1-4 like the 2016 Dolphins.

And there are other cautionary tales buried within those numbers.

Just last season the New York Jets had a five-game winning streak and ended 10-6 but missed the playoffs. Atlanta started the season 5-0, but missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record.
And in 2014, Kansas City and San Diego had five-game winning streaks and 9-7 records. But both missed the playoffs.

So the Dolphins clearly aren’t in “sure-thing” territory. But having a winning streak of at least four games adds to a team's odds far more than just a three-game streak.
The Dolphins had a three game winning streak in 2014 and two in 2013. They didn’t make the playoffs or have a winning record in either season.

Cleveland had three-game winning streaks in 2013 and 2014. The Browns finished 7-9 in 2014, and 4-12 in 2013.

Jacksonville had a three-game winning streak in 2013 and finished 4-12.
Click to expand...
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...ing-to-recent-nfl-history-20161116-story.html
 
With a win this week, we will be no worse than tied for the 6th seed. The good news for Miami is that the AFC West still has several divisional games left. Some of them have to lose.

KC plays Denver this week, Oakland in week 14 and the Broncos again in week 16 (SD week 17). I see two more losses in those 3 games. They also play the Falcons.

Denver plays the above mentioned Chiefs two more times as well as the Raiders in week 17 AND New England. Another 2-3 loss potential.

We still have to finish strong against 3 divisional rivals in the last 3 weeks but it's nice to be in the running. Personally, I would be shocked if we can pull it out considering the health of our O-line. I am betting we face the 49ers with this line....

LT Young
LG Urbik
C Steen
RG Bushrod
RT James

One more injury and we are screwed. I just hope Tunsil is not severely injured. Albert said he wants to return this week (Pouncey in two) but if history is a good indicator, the coaches may not let them rush back.
 
O-line is scaring me. I thought we were done yesterday when Tunsil went out of the game. We can get by with Steen, we can get by with Urbik...but we need Albert or Tunsil at LT something awful. I don't think it will cost us the game against the 49ers cause they're bad but no way we beat the Ravens with that O-line.
 
Eesti nails it. I love what I'm seeing from the fins but will temper my excitement (I know party pooper) until I see what the line looks like going forward. I am a pessimist and fear the worst for Tunsil because Gase is usually pretty forth coming with injuries and he wasn't with this one. We'll see!
 
amazing with all our injuries but we need a healthy oline to have a realistic shot. Hopefully we get some of our starters back on defense too. So far we have been doing it without jones, misi, Mario, Jenkins and howard. That's a lot of starting players missing significant time.
 
They may need another OL depending on how Tunsil is injury wise. That being said they probably wont be able to find much out there but we may need another body.
 
I wonder what the odds are after a 6-game winning streak. As others have mentioned, we need our o-line healthy if we want to make a serious run in December. If we have our starting five, I'm confident we can hang with anyone in the playoffs sans New England.
 
Albert Romano said:
They may need another OL depending on how Tunsil is injury wise. That being said they probably wont be able to find much out there but we may need another body.
Click to expand...

They promoted one from their practice squad on Saturday after they cut Culliver.
 
While KC & Denver are the biggest threats to that last wild card spot. One team that is getting overlooked is the Bills.They are a game behind the Dolphins right now, but they have a slightly easier schedule and they get the Dolphins in Buffalo. For the Dolphins these next 3 games vs the 49ers, Ravens & Cardinals are crucial and pretty much must win.
 
I think that the Dolphins playoff chances right now are closer to 35%, increasing to 40% with a Texans win over the Raiders tonight.

There is no way it can approach 85% when there is so little chance for the Dolphins to earn a playoff spot via a division title.

So the top 3 AFC West teams need to begin to accumulate losses immediately, as realistically the Dolphins are finishing 10-6 at best (due to their OL injuries). And this is a year in which a 10-6 record guarantees nothing in the AFC.
 
The thing about most winning streaks is they come to an end after a while. If Miami makes it to the playoffs, it will need at least a record of 10-6. After a 1-4 start, that'd be a record of 9-2. You have to be a really freaking good football team to go 9-2, and as fun as this run has been, I'm not sure Miami is a really good football team.
 
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