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Dolphins points per drive stacked up against the rest of the NFL

SCLSU Mud Dogs

SCLSU Mud Dogs

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I'm merely a messenger on this one. Data was found on http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-points-per-drive-statistics/2013/ and a great, inclusive writeup was done here http://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2biflv/measuring_offenses_by_points_per_drive/

Here's where Miami stacks up against the rest in 2012 and 2013 for points scored per drive

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In 2013, Miami's 1.63 points for and 1.73 points against per drive landed it at 18th best in the NFL, which is right around where the record was. Good enough to stand out against some teams, but not good enough to break into the playoffs.

In 2012, Miami's points against per drive was the same, but the offense was slightly below the 2013 mark at 1.55.

As far as offense is concerned, the offense is still in the bottom third of the league and it's been the defense that has helped keep the team relatively afloat.

In 2012, the 1.73 points allowed per drive was tied for 10th best in the league.
In 2013, it was tied for ninth.

2013 super bowl champ Seattle had the best differential of the group, while the 2012 Baltimore Ravens had the 11th.

2011 Giants actually had more points allowed per drive than scored per drive.
2010 Packers second in the league in differential.
2009 New Orleans Saints were first.
2008 Steelers were fourth.

For you number junkies, here's some data to chew before the season starts. Thought it was interesting.
 
Turnover differential:

2012: Dolphins -8
Patriots +26

2013: Dolphins -2
Seahawks +22

Take care of the ball and create opportunities.
 
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Yep, too many turnovers and not enough big plays on offense doomed us
 
Dismal chart, despite the cheery first statement you made when averaging in the defensive stats to make it not seem so bad. Fact remains, the offense is what's been sinking us for a long time and still will until we fix it. This is one of the reasons I was scratching my head when an offensive minded coach who was brought here to bring a dynamic, explosive offense to the Dolphins, says in his second season that turnovers is what's killing us and we have to focus on that, and the defense taking the ball away. No, I think what's killing us is the fact that we have a sh*tty offense. The definition of a sh*tty offense is one that can't score points.

Fix that, Joe.

Afterwards, when we go into year 4 I don't want to see us in the same chart with the bottom dwellers like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Browns.
 
Miami was tied for 13th in FGs made and tied for 15th in TD passes, yet were 26th in total points. Why?

They were 27th in rushing TDs.
They had zero special teams TDs.
They had 2 defensive TDs.
Only 3 teams in the league scored fewer special teams and defensive TDs. 4 teams were tied with Miami.
 
Other info:

The first is a look at sack differential on scoring. It is from college but I see no reason why something similar wouldn't be true in the pros. Here is the summary:

14% of the variation in a team's non-garbage time margin of victory can be explained by the difference between their sack rate on offense and their sack rate on defense. Teams who sack their opponent more than they get sacked themselves tend to outscore their opponents (I'm telling you guys, this is revolutionary stuff right here). An eight percent increase in sack rate margin (1 less sack on offense and 1 more sack on defense per 25 drop-backs) would be expected to increase your margin of victory by almost 5 points.
Click to expand...

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/3/25/5472020/sack-rates-impact-on-mov

Here is a study that looked at the value of sacks.

If we average the expected points of all situations in which there wasn't a sack, and compare it with the average expected points following plays that did result in a sack, we get a difference of 2.0 points. In effect, a sack swings the balance of the game by an average of 2 points in favor of the defense, either by forcing a punt or a longer FG try, or even just putting a team in a predictable passing situation.
Click to expand...

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/11/value-of-sack.html

Finally, here is another look at the types of sacks that I had not seen before. The Dolphins gave up a staggering 43 sacks due to blown blocks. The worst in the league by a wide margin.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-quarterbacks-true-sack-rate
 
This chart does not pin point the actual problem we encountered last year.

If a mere criteria was added to this study, we would be near the top of efficiency. That criteria would be, "Drives of 20 yards or more".

Once our offense got a first down or two, we actually had a very high scoring percentage. This was also reflected by our tired defense and poor run defense compared to previous years. Our offense simply had too many 3 and outs or short possessions.

Mixing in Wallace's untimely drops, OL giving up inopportune sacks and lack of creative play calling... our offense required too many possessions to produce sustained drives. Our defense was on the field way too long.

I talked about this in correlation to sacks last year. It seemed once we acquired Bryant, our sack frequency didn't truly decline much. But the timing of the sacks changed completely. Instead of scoring drive killing sacks occurring later in the drives, they were happening earlier in the drive. Sacks at the end of a drive or at the end of the game directly decide the outcome of the game. Sacks that happen in the early stages of a drive are recoverable and less damaging. So, while the rate of sacks didn't change much after his acquisition. His presence and the line's performance after we acquired him did change how sacks impacted the offense.

There were times we should have hit on big plays. Change 50% of the underthrows, overthrows and drops to/by Wallace and our percentages go up. But while this is a very true statement, we would not have needed those plays if we had established a running game and made better use of the short to midrange passing before the long ball was needed.

Our offensive execution and play calling made us mediocre. We had opportunities. We simply didn't execute.

I think a new culture on offense and new OL will drastically change the outcome. If nothing else, we should be on the field longer. Which should shrink the scoring differential and indirectly keep us in games. Tanny has proven he has tools for making final drives. Balls dropped or sacks given up are not completely on him. The important thing is he has clock/game awareness and has proven he can make tough throws in tense moments of a game. We just need to work on it. It's not like he is throwing INTs on game winning drives.

We have the tools and abilities. We're just not applying them correctly.
 
HoneyB said:
Dismal chart, despite the cheery first statement you made when averaging in the defensive stats to make it not seem so bad. Fact remains, the offense is what's been sinking us for a long time and still will until we fix it. This is one of the reasons I was scratching my head when an offensive minded coach who was brought here to bring a dynamic, explosive offense to the Dolphins, says in his second season that turnovers is what's killing us and we have to focus on that, and the defense taking the ball away. No, I think what's killing us is the fact that we have a sh*tty offense. The definition of a sh*tty offense is one that can't score points.

Fix that, Joe.

Afterwards, when we go into year 4 I don't want to see us in the same chart with the bottom dwellers like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Browns.
Click to expand...
Well yes the offense needed and needs to be fixed. That is very true.

But consider that the 2012 Miami Dolphins had the fewest takeaways in franchise history. Less than even when we were an expansion team.

Teams can't win with that few takeaways in the modern NFL. The salary cap has brought the talent levels too close.

Plus, every good coach stresses limiting INT's with young QB's, that is pretty basic. After letting Reggie Bush walk we had 2 RB's that couldn't use the emphasis on no turnovers. So, while you are totally correct about fixing the offense ... the turnover emphasis needed to be made at the highest level. IMHO, Philbin was right to stress that and continue to work on improving the off as much as he could.
 
miamiron said:
Wow, our 4TH qt QB rating was a dismal 59.2 or 30th in the NFL
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That is bc of the Oline, and the OC, and ummmm Wallace cant catch, referees, and media. Definitely NOTHING to do with the QB! He is clutch!!! He has great in game awareness- Signed, Hoops, FinFanBuffalo and their posse
 
slk018 said:
That is bc of the Oline, and the OC, and ummmm Wallace cant catch, referees, and media. Definitely NOTHING to do with the QB! He is clutch!!! He has great in game awareness- Signed, Hoops, FinFanBuffalo and their posse
Click to expand...

It is all on the QB despite the historically bad OL and joke of a running game and horrible play calling.

signed, the Tannehaters

PS, the proof of that is that the team changed the QB and not the OL, RB, and OC...... wait, never mind that was in our dreams.....
 
I have harped sooooooooooooooo much about how are defense is on the cusp of elite and our offense has been dragging this team down... but people keep making threads about our run D and how to fix it and to get rid of kevin coyle and blah blah blah... blows my mind - our defense CARRIES us.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
It is all on the QB despite the historically bad OL and joke of a running game and horrible play calling.

signed, the Tannehaters

PS, the proof of that is that the team changed the QB and not the OL, RB, and OC...... wait, never mind that was in our dreams.....
Click to expand...

Never said that. The qb does deserve some blame though. So many make every excuse to rid RT of any blame. He deserves some especially the last 2 games. I know the excuse if he doesn't take the next step will be something like. "Oline still sucks, or new system w Lazor etc"
There is a salary cap, so its hard to have elite weapons, a great Oline and a great defense. That is why QB play is so important, it can make an oline and weapons look better
 
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