Dolphins Projected 5.6 Wins In 2019 Last In The Nfl

Danny

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Of course this means nothing and it's dumb really.......any team with the worst record will not win 5-6 games. In order to finish with the worst record the team will win no more than 3 games if that.
 

meatpardle

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Title is incorrect, according to the article the Cards are projected fewer wins and a lower chance of making the playoffs.
 

Rowdy1972

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I called 4 wins before we traded for Josh Rosen and was still concerned other teams would finish with less wins.
I think the acquisition of Rosen actually hurts our win total this year because it didnt upgrade the QB position necessarily and we could have used that second rounder on an olineman that would actually be worth a damn. I know this thinking isn't thought of highly around here but thats how I see it. We really dont even know if Rosen is gonna start the season. He should but we dont know. I think Fitz gives us a better chance to win games even if its not by much.
 

Digital

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Well, honestly, if we're not going to make the playoffs, and this is a rebuilding year--and everything suggests those two things are true--then it would be great to get the top pick and still manage to win 5 or 6 games. But, I'll be shocked if that's the case. To get the top pick, I'm guessing 2-4 wins max.

People who are already convinced about Josh Rosen before he takes a single snap as a Miami Dolphin aren't going to agree, but the gems of the 2020 draft are the elite QB's. Teams _will_ want those QB's. If Rosen is not the answer, then we _need_ one of those three elite QB's. If Rosen is the answer, then trading the top pick could garner a lot of surrounding talent for Rosen. Either way, I want a top 3 pick in 2020.

This isn't one of those surprising rebound years. We have no pass rushers, cut all the older players, and are fielding a roster with a lot of holes at key positions and mediocre players at many more. This is not going to be a surprising rebound year … it's going to hurt.

If we could manage to get the top pick in the draft with 5 or 6 wins … that almost seems too good to hope for in 2019.
 

Awsi Dooger

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What a stupid list that is.
a) we are higher in both categories (wins and playoff chances) yet we are behind the Cardinals.
b) you either do projected wins or playoff chances and not both. Based on what they have listed I doubt that any team with 7 wins or below would have a chance to make the playoffs so by their predicted wins NE would be 100% and Jets, Bills and Dolphins at 0%.
c) if you list by play off chances (without prediction on wins) we'd not be last.

ESPN is getting worse by the day.
It's not stupid at all. It is perfectly logical. Stupid would be mentioning anything at 0% or 100%, regardless of any roster or any schedule. They put together a power rankings index and used that as basis for 1-32. The Dolphins are dead last at -6.7. The only flaw in the link provided in the OP is that it required a separate click to find those power rankings. For whatever reason the main list only included the win projection and playoff estimate, instead of also listing the raw power ranking number.

These teams are in separate conferences and divisions. That's why the win projection and playoff chances don't automatically line up 1-32. New England has the 4th highest power ranking but the highest projected win total and highest chance of making the playoffs. That is due to weakness of the AFC East. Kansas City has the highest power ranking but their other numbers dip due to the presence of the Chargers in the same division. The Chargers have the 6th power ranking but notice how low the playoff estimate is. That is due to Kansas City.

The Dolphins would be above the Cardinals in win projection and playoff opportunity due to the Rams with an elite power ranking and the Seahawks in the upper middle of the pack. Below New England, meanwhile, there's a free fall to the Jets, Bills and Dolphins. That theoretically allows Miami a greater opportunity.

There's always a tendency to scream at this stuff instead of looking at the fundamentals behind it. As always, I get a kick out of anybody who ridicules preseason rankings in college sports. That showed up dependably in this thread. The bar stool types love that spinny chair.

This is basically a season win over/under compilation but the method they use causes too much congestion. That's the only thing that jumped out to me. The top teams should be about 1 game higher and bottom teams 1 game lower, and everything in between spaced out about 10% more than it is. Since this is a fresh model they will likely tinker with it for the first few years. But hardly the worst debut I've ever seen.

Here is the link to the raw power ranking numbers with Miami in last:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Football-Power-Index/espn-nfl-football-power-index
 
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