where's th'fish
Scout Team
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...by Football Outsiders in an article for ESPN+. The gist of it is we've had lots of high picks, of course. But this is the part that interested me the most -perception vs measurables (oh, and before you ask, DVOA is adjusted to account for the fact that passing is easier today than it was in the 80s):
Many fans see Tagovailoa's rookie season as a disappointment, but honestly it is only a disappointment if you compare him to the stellar season that Justin Herbert had for the Los Angeles Chargers. Most quarterbacks, even first-rounders, start their careers off slowly, and Tagovailoa was no exception. Tagovailoa ranked 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in both ESPN QBR and Football Outsiders DVOA. That was the worst of last year's three first-round passers, but not worryingly so. Looking at history, Tagovailoa had a slightly above-average rookie season. His passing DVOA ranked him 20th out of 54 qualifying first-round rookie passers since 1983 (min. 200 passes).