Dolphins Should Draft QB in First Two Rds of 2018 Draft | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins Should Draft QB in First Two Rds of 2018 Draft

Since 2004 there have been 11 QBs drafted in the second round. One of them approaches top-of-the-line caliber (Derek Carr), one is Tannehill-level (Andy Dalton), one is an unknown at present (Deshone Kizer), and the rest are busts.

In other words, you stand an 82 to 91% chance of failing to do better than Tannehill by drafting a QB in the second round.

During the same period, 38 QBs have been drafted in the first round. 4 of them are beyond Tannehill's level (Rodgers, Ryan, Rivers, Roethlisberger), while 6 more are unknowns at present (Winston, Goff, Watson, Luck, Mariota, Wentz). The rest are at Tannehill's level or are busts.

So in the first round you stand a 74 to 90% chance of failing to do any better than Tannehill.

Whether a QB is drafted in the first or second round, the odds are against that QB's being any better than Tannehill.

This is why the effort in my opinion should be in signing Kirk Cousins, trading Tannehill for picks, and using the greater than normal number of early round picks to address other needs.

Cousins is already significantly better than Tannehill. There is no uncertainty there. And obviously the use of early-round picks to address other needs is more desirable than using one or more of them to draft a QB, given that one of the league's best QBs would already be in tow.

I dont like the Cousins idea for several reasons:

1. We dont exactly have a ton of cap space and Cousins, assuming we could even pry him away from Washington (or any other team for that matter, will not come cheap.

2. I'm not convinced Cousins is clearly better than RT, particularly in Gase's offense and getting up to speed there.

3. Assuming Cousins is actually better, who is going to trade us picks for RT? If we got a pick it certainly wouldnt be a first, maybe a late second or third. But In a QB rich draft class, I think teams would rather keep their picks and draft a low cost QB of their own. Cause, ya know, RT isnt gonna come cheap either.

4. Trading away RT and signing Cousins does nothing at all to improve our depth at QB, and if Cousins goes down we are back to shitsville.

5. And finally, RT is Gase's adopted QB, Cousins would be his foster child. What Gase really wants is to plant his seed. He wants to mold a young sproutling into his own form. He aint getting that with Cousins.
 
I'm glad to see more of you coming around to the idea of drafting a QB early.

The sooner we accept it the easier it will be on draft day when we don't take a guard in round 1.

It's for the best. Trust me.

I'l never come around. I'm a 'what will happen' guy. Some people dump on Harris for not starting but want a R1 QB to sit behind Tannehill. There will be no day one QB
 
I'l never come around. I'm a 'what will happen' guy. Some people dump on Harris for not starting but want a R1 QB to sit behind Tannehill. There will be no day one QB

I know where ya stand bro :) Youll come around, I have faith in you! :)
 
Athleticism is a major part of Ryan Tannehill’s game, he may not be the same guy after two knee injuries in seven months. I don’t think Gase is going to put his career in the hands of Tannehill next year.
 
Personally I think Tannehill is good enough to take us to the Superbowl assuming the talent around him is also good to decent. That being said I don't think he's elite and we've seen practically the best of him. He's 30 so he's not old but not young and full of potential. He's also coming back from back to back injuries. So I guess in the end I would only draft a QB with potential to be elite because that would be the only reason to seek an upgrade over Tannehill. The question is what QBs in this draft do you consider to have the decent potential to be elite? I'd at least want someone who has half a chance at being elite rather than someone's who's chances are low but possible (which is also my view on Tannehill's chances of ever becoming elite).
 
Personally I think Tannehill is good enough to take us to the Superbowl assuming the talent around him is also good to decent. That being said I don't think he's elite and we've seen practically the best of him. He's 30 so he's not old but not young and full of potential. He's also coming back from back to back injuries. So I guess in the end I would only draft a QB with potential to be elite because that would be the only reason to seek an upgrade over Tannehill. The question is what QBs in this draft do you consider to have the decent potential to be elite? I'd at least want someone who has half a chance at being elite rather than someone's who's chances are low but possible (which is also my view on Tannehill's chances of ever becoming elite).

Agreed. I don't see Tannehill becoming elite, but Miami has was away greater needs than QB
 
There's so many questions about Tannehill and that's fine if the plan is to roll with him next year. They better be ready though if it becomes apparent he has issues. Personally i think his decision not to surgically repair his knee was a career altering decision, and not in a good way.
 
There's so many questions about Tannehill and that's fine if the plan is to roll with him next year. They better be ready though if it becomes apparent he has issues. Personally i think his decision not to surgically repair his knee was a career altering decision, and not in a good way.
Agreed.
 
less be real one of them qb in top 4 . will be there when dolphins pick next yr. if Gase is good offensive mind coach it should not be problem for us too draft a qb. in first rd, plus let moore and cutler go.
 
I am not total give up on thill17 but drafting qb in first would be good
 
I'm glad to see more of you coming around to the idea of drafting a QB early.

The sooner we accept it the easier it will be on draft day when we don't take a guard in round 1.

It's for the best. Trust me.
To qualify an earlier post: I have not come around on drafting a QB per se. I have come around on drafting one particular Baker Mayfield. I've not felt this strongly about Luck. Mayfield has plenty of skills to compensate for height, although maybe not Luck's classical ones, but if the defense gives up 50 points, there's a confidence that Mayfield will get you 52! He's passionate, fiery and winner. He's the one I want period!

Darnold could end up being another Barkley or Leinart.. or even a Sanchez. Allen.. plays inferior competition and hasn't looked great doing it. Jackson, troublesome criticisms about his feet and overall mechanics. They may all turn out to be great, but it's more of a crapshoot. I can almost guarantee that whomever ends up with Mayfield will have lucked themselves into another Watson-type winner.

He's who I want. Is it prudent to draft another QB? Yes, but I'd rather root for Tannehill to regain his last 8 game mojo than depend on any draftee not curiously named "Baker"!!!!
 
To qualify an earlier post: I have not come around on drafting a QB per se. I have come around on drafting one particular Baker Mayfield. I've not felt this strongly about Luck. Mayfield has plenty of skills to compensate for height, although maybe not Luck's classical ones, but if the defense gives up 50 points, there's a confidence that Mayfield will get you 52! He's passionate, fiery and winner. He's the one I want period!

Darnold could end up being another Barkley or Leinart.. or even a Sanchez. Allen.. plays inferior competition and hasn't looked great doing it. Jackson, troublesome criticisms about his feet and overall mechanics. They may all turn out to be great, but it's more of a crapshoot. I can almost guarantee that whomever ends up with Mayfield will have lucked themselves into another Watson-type winner.

He's who I want. Is it prudent to draft another QB? Yes, but I'd rather root for Tannehill to regain his last 8 game mojo than depend on any draftee not curiously named "Baker"!!!!

I'm trying not to get stuck on one over another at this point. I've got my eye on 6 guys that I would be happy with: Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, and Rudolph. Not particularly in that order.

Love Baker's intensity, but Im concerned he might be another Johnny Football.

I think Allen is suffering from having 0 supporting cast.

Rosen and Darnold are no brainers imo.

Jackson has some ridiculous intangibles.

Rudolph I wouldnt draft in round 1, but I wouldnt mind seeing him called on day 2.
 
I'm down with drafting a QB with a high draft pick. I believe Tannehill will come back and play well for us, but his injury is risky and we will need a No. 2 QB next year anyway.
 
I think we have too many holes and question marks to do this in one year. I say draft a QB this year and next year and get the depth and quality that we need. To spend two high draft picks on one position when you could address another position of need.
 
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