BillsFanInPeace
FinHeaven VIP
Well it is the new season of the NFL, the single elimination tournament for the Lombardi. I will get into all the cliches like Defense wins Championships and Running matters during this post. But the reality is it is the Next 4 games for all the marbles. Starts this upcoming weekend.
I wont get into much of the weather right now in this initial post as it is Orchard Park and you really do not know what it will be until 24 hours out. However right now early it looks like perfect conditions for Playoff Football.
30 degrees at KO probably hits low 20s during the game
Clear
Winds are variable and light.
Now to the game and first the simple stats that matter IMO, then will get to some player and unit matchup talk..
Fins Offense (11th Ranked, 23.4 ppg) against the Bills Defense (2nd Ranked at 17.9ppg) - on average that gives the Fins a TD disadvantage going into the game with the comparison of the two units.
Some more tidbits about this comparison.
Some more thoughts.
Here are some of the thoughts on the state of the Bills offense.
McDermott said the team will prepare for Tua at QB (he is the one that can run the complete offense) and adjust later in the week if that is not going to happen. I personally think if Glennon can learn enough of the offense he is your best chance at victory Sunday if Tua cannot go. Teddy doesnt scare me and Skyler while might have something to work on and develop (have not watched him enough), Frazier and McD have a pretty solid track record on rookie QBs.
Where I think MIA can exploit.
Secondary
Interior Pass Rush
Combo Stunts or games against the right side.
Where I think the Bills will attack
Your LBers in pass game and Allens legs in run game (Cook, Singletary Knox and Allen)
Kohou - they will find him, scheme to get him in single coverage he grabs alot and can get easy penalty yards here as well.
Secondary - I could see this game Bills going 4 and 5 wide early in the game, test that secondary depth early.
All and All should be a fun game to watch and I will be at the Stadium again, who knows maybe I will even open the window up on the suite (doubt it getting too old for that crap).By this
By this graphic looks like Damar will be leading the team out of the Tunnel.
I wont get into much of the weather right now in this initial post as it is Orchard Park and you really do not know what it will be until 24 hours out. However right now early it looks like perfect conditions for Playoff Football.
30 degrees at KO probably hits low 20s during the game
Clear
Winds are variable and light.
Now to the game and first the simple stats that matter IMO, then will get to some player and unit matchup talk..
Fins Offense (11th Ranked, 23.4 ppg) against the Bills Defense (2nd Ranked at 17.9ppg) - on average that gives the Fins a TD disadvantage going into the game with the comparison of the two units.
Some more tidbits about this comparison.
- Buffalo has let more points up than their Average in 7 games
- Mia has scored more than the Bills AVG in Both their contests against them so far.
- Bills out of those 7 games, 5 of them have come in the final 2 months of the season, with 2 of them in the final 4 weeks.
- MIA has scored more than their AVG in in 6 games
- Fins out of those 6 games, 2 have come in the final 2 months of the season, with 1 of them in the final 4 weeks.
Some more thoughts.
- Bills have scored more points than their Average in 9 games this season
- Out of those 9 games 5 have come in the last two months, with 3 in the final 4 weeks of the season.
- Fins have allowed more than their Average in 9 games this season
- Fins out of those 9, 6 have come in the last 2 months, and 2 in the final 4 weeks of the season.
Here are some of the thoughts on the state of the Bills offense.
- Is the Deep Ball back?? It has been missing for a majority of the season (really since the Jets game when Allen's elbow got all dicked up. However on Sunday there was 3 fifty plus yard bombs dropped on dimes from Josh, 2 went for 6 (Diggs and Brown), 1 should have been 6 went right through Gabe Davis's hands (more on that in a bit).
- Drops - Bills WR continue to drop balls that should not be dropped, with 38, for comparison MIA is right up there too with 37. (profootball reference)
- Issues when targeting Gabe Davis - when they do go to him unlike last year issues pop up. (9 drops, Drop% of 9.7, 6 Ints, with a rating of 80.8 all worst on the team). This is greatly due IMO to his limited Route Tree he runs, then he gets confidence issues leading to drops and tipped picks. This is all said for this reason. I would expect Beasley and Brown to take some of his targets on Sunday. Both will likely be PS call-ups as the rules for that reset in the playoffs.
- I think we have now seen enough to say Josh Allen baseline year will be around these numbers (4400 yards, 35 passing TDs, 14 picks, above 7.0 ypa, 63% complete), he has been around these numbers for the last 3 years. What is interesting when I look at Allens stats with Dorsey, they do not throw as much as with Daboll. He was about 80 attempts off this. So I would say he is about 50 attempts off (with the cancelled game) showing they will run more with Dorsey.
- Red Zone - they have struggled alot this year with TO in the redzone (maybe a little regression to the norm, after 2 years of little to no red zone TOs). But still ended in the top 10 in conversion percentage.
- Rushing - they have like they have in 2021 and 2020 ramped up their running game late in the season. I expect that to Continue. Side note here is the Bills have had over 100 years rushing in every game they played this year except last week.
- Offensive Line - Dawkins has started playing a bit better as of late and I think that is because Saffold has started playing AVG the last 4 weeks. The RT and RG are still struggling heavily, and noticed a new concept against the Patriots - Designed Roll-outs.
- They are not as good IMO as the above numbers suggest. Injuries have really depleted this unit.
- Against the Run they have been better late in the season with MIA being the outlier with 188 on the ground (I think there is a reason for this and I will get into that later).
- Secondary is a problem right now, Tre White had his best game back last week and still had troubles trusting the knee. But he has improved every week, but will get flagged every week because like I said he doesn't trust that knee fully so grabs more than he normally has. Benford will be back so that should help Elam get out of the Zone coverages and run support that he is still struggling in (getting better). Bills will also be down to their 3rd safety this game (likely J. Johnson or Neal).
McDermott said the team will prepare for Tua at QB (he is the one that can run the complete offense) and adjust later in the week if that is not going to happen. I personally think if Glennon can learn enough of the offense he is your best chance at victory Sunday if Tua cannot go. Teddy doesnt scare me and Skyler while might have something to work on and develop (have not watched him enough), Frazier and McD have a pretty solid track record on rookie QBs.
Where I think MIA can exploit.
Secondary
Interior Pass Rush
Combo Stunts or games against the right side.
Where I think the Bills will attack
Your LBers in pass game and Allens legs in run game (Cook, Singletary Knox and Allen)
Kohou - they will find him, scheme to get him in single coverage he grabs alot and can get easy penalty yards here as well.
Secondary - I could see this game Bills going 4 and 5 wide early in the game, test that secondary depth early.
All and All should be a fun game to watch and I will be at the Stadium again, who knows maybe I will even open the window up on the suite (doubt it getting too old for that crap).By this
By this graphic looks like Damar will be leading the team out of the Tunnel.
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