Finman1022
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TG...I sure am going to miss Burke and his wide nine BS! SMFH
I'm pretty sure it will still be mostly nickel and dime. While the 43 vs 34 used to mean the front seven … I think it's being bastardized a bit here. What they really mean is a 3 man front sometimes and a 4 man front other times. Or, as Slimm points out, this is a variation of how we implement the 4th guy, who sometimes will look like a LB and other times look like a DE.So not 90% Nickel?
Well, every offense except New England … because … well … you know … they cheat.Well, regardless of the players we'll have, it will help that the offense doesn't kn ow what we're going to do on every snap as it's been the case in the past.
I’m excited to see what this defense will turn into. Sky’s the limit right now, until it isn’t.
Oh to the contrary!And that's good news or bad news depending on the reader. Those advocating 'tank' will be unhappy. Those wanting evidence of a good coaching staff? Happy
I liked the Big Nickel...would have liked it even more if Jopnes played the hybrid and Fitzpatrick had a season in centerfield.So not 90% Nickel?
Oh to the contrary!
I'm advocating for the tank for 2019 and I'm ecstatic about it! Here's why.
It's a lot to learn before a player can get all of those different techniques and reads down right, and it will be a painful growth period for many players. Also, its the sort of thing that the 2nd game you play in it will be drastically better than the first game you play in it. But you're learning so much, the mental capacity of the players must go up. In fact, draftniks are already saying a good pass rusher like Montez Sweat may not even be on our draft board because putting in the work and mastering the mental side of it aren't his strong suits.
In year 1, it will be filled with errors … because that learning curve is steep even for veterans. The fruits of this shift will appear towards the end of season 1 and more pronounced in season 2, and probably will take until season 3 to really hit full stride, honestly. With the personnel turnover typical of new coaching staffs, year 2 will be a learning year for a bunch of players as well. But the end result will be a better defense.
Also, we can't possibly fix both the offense and defense for new systems and new coaches in one offseason … it's just too much to ask. So, don't be surprised if we don't play with a typical prototype NT … and yes, that will hurt us in year 1, but can be added in year 2's draft. Don't be surprised if our young LB's (particularly Baker) struggle with this transition, making a number of mental lapses as they absorb this complex system. And, given our personnel, only maybe Charles Harris--who has thus far been a bust--even fits the profile for a DE/OLB who fits into a multiple scheme. That means we're going to be playing rookies … many of them. I'm not at all expecting an overnight transformation from sucky to excellent. What better year to endure those growing pains than a tanking year?
Also, I expect us to play a poor QB, and that means our offense isn't going to be very good. Likewise, our offensive draft picks will likely be along the OL, again .. ripe area for rookie mistakes. Plus, when we tank it's usually an ideal time to play a lot of raw young guys and hope a few develop, knowing full well that most will just be liabilities that season and not ever develop into good players. So, turnovers, 3-and-outs, and low point production should be a staple in year 1.
So many games in the NFL are close … whether they turn on takeaway or the inability of an offense to sustain a drive by converting 3rd downs or its ability to convert in the red zone … many games are decided by less than 2 TD's. It doesn't take much to be just a little less good … but it does take commitment from the coaching staff, and to get that you need long-term faith in them from the Owner and GM. If the season is divided into quartiles, and most coaches look at the season like this, then we're looking to win 1 of 4 each quartile. At our best, we're probably only a 2 of 4 team after all of these changes and the direction the roster will go. It shouldn't be too hard to provide vanilla gameplans and outmatched players at key positions like QB and NT and have the 2019 season be a real tank.
But if we do spend that season stressing the fundamentals and building the knowledge and mastery of these schemes, 2020 looks to be a much improved year. Add in the fact we will have a QB, finish acquiring the right personnel (e.g. NT, flexible DE/OLB's, QB, OL) we should see a major improvement for the 2020 season, and by 2021 be well on our way through a successful rebuild.
There is a lot we agree on it seems!Actually, we seem to agree.
"The fruits of this shift will appear towards the end of season 1" I agree. But here is an unknown. Who will Miami play the last 8 games? Poor teams give a shot at 3-4 wins instead of 2 wins. we don't know.
"we can't possibly fix both the offense and defense for new systems and new coaches in one offseason." Agree, . . . kinda. We don't know Flores' plan. we know there will be some cuts this winter, but Sitton? Quinn? Jones? James? we don't know, we can't say how much of a "fix' is needed. Keeping Sitton and getting a solid OG . . . OL is fixed. One solid DT would help a lot. Same with one CB. I'm not saying fixed as in 'top 5' NFL, but fixed as in filling gaping holes. Will Miami get a stud OG/DT in the draft? We don't know. So, I agree, we can't COMPLETELY fix OL/DL and there will be a learning curve, but significant upgrades to 2-3 positions will fix the biggest holes.
"I expect us to play a poor QB, and that means our offense isn't going to be very good." You judiciously used "expect." That doesn't mean you or I know. Flores could draft a top QB this year. Maybe he just wants a 'game manager.' We'll find out. And, regardless of QB, he'll have some weapons. If Flores actually schemes players open and looks for mismatches, the O could surprise.
"So many games in the NFL are close " Agree again. And, in any close game, one miracle catch, one penalty, one fumble can swing a game, and not always to the advantage of the better team.
I've said elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised at 6-10. Not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised. A lot of it depends on coaching and injuries. A lot of it is 'we don't know yet.' I DO think, by the last 8 games, the team will be better than some expect. The flip side is the schedule. It's not easy. And a lot of good teams in the final 8 will make it difficult.
My point is, for the 1st time in a while, there is A LOT fans don't know. Who stays/who leaves? Is the coaching legit? Who will the draft picks be? QB in '19 or '20. We just don't know. If most of these fall Miami's way, the 'tank' may not be what some get. If they fall against Miami, you'll get your pleasure. I'm guessing most falling to Miami's favor would not make you happy.
I'm pretty sure it will still be mostly nickel and dime. While the 43 vs 34 used to mean the front seven … I think it's being bastardized a bit here. What they really mean is a 3 man front sometimes and a 4 man front other times. Or, as Slimm points out, this is a variation of how we implement the 4th guy, who sometimes will look like a LB and other times look like a DE.
This is very exciting. The Patriots have taken prospects that didn't quite fit into other schemes perfectly and used them effectively with this multiple front approach. It almost reminds me of Bill Walsh, who designed one of the first ball-control short passing systems, called the West Coast Offense after his west coast San Francisco 49'ers (but he initially developed it in Cincinnati to deal with QB Ken Anderson's decreased arm strength). Walsh was looking for offensive linemen who were mobile, but was OK with guys who didn't quite have as much power and size. So, he could get guys who were ideal for his system in the middle rounds, so he traded back, got lots of picks, and took those guys at what was essentially a discount.
The Patriots have gotten guys who have good athletic ability, but maybe not truly elite quickness or maybe not ideal length, so they slipped down the draft boards or were cut. The Patriots recycled a lot of those guys and sifted through them to find a few really good fits. Guys like Kyle Van Noy, who failed elsewhere, but succeeded in the multiple front system because he does a number of things fairly well.
What makes this so encouraging is that it means we should be able to build a competitive defense, and maybe a good defense, relatively quickly. Seeing as how that is Coach Flores' area of concentration, I'm excited to see what he builds. Given that we're tanking for a year, that gives him two drafts and two off-seasons to get his guys in place. We haven't had a strong defense since the Coyle/Nolan years, and many people made it their life's focus to criticize them. Honestly, they were pretty good overall. This system that Flores/Graham want to run probably means that in a few years our defense is going to return to being a perennial top 10 defense … and it will be a welcome return.