Draft by the numbers 2005-2015 | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Draft by the numbers 2005-2015

Bear in mind for linebackers, DBs and to some extent WRs, many in the late rounds are chosen strictly for special teams, where there's low expectation they will ever be a regular starter and roster churn is pretty huge.
 
Bear in mind for linebackers, DBs and to some extent WRs, many in the late rounds are chosen strictly for special teams, where there's low expectation they will ever be a regular starter and roster churn is pretty huge.
Definitely agree. Like I said this is just the reality of expectations you have on success rates. I'm sure someone could dive much further into the numbers and get more granular but this is just a snap shot. It does (or did at least for me) show some real trends. The two major misconceptions I definitely had were don't take RBs in the 1st round and WR success being almost as high in the 2nd as in the 1st, but that's just me
 
Excellent thread. There is no reason to recoup a 4th round pick. I never understand that philosophy in the first place. Horrible general managers somehow think they need to pick in every round. Meanwhile it's more entertainment value than likelihood of success. Everything should be focused early. That's why I've long emphasized to take advantage of the first 40 picks. Talent level and value plummet from there.

Compromise quarterbacks are the worst choice. Never rationalize I'd don't want to spend a first but let's take our developmental quarterback in the second or third round. Brutalization of probability. The league has had that screwed up approach for too long. Much more sensible and value efficient to do it in reverse...double up on first round quarterbacks then devote the second and third round picks to positions that do have reasonable depth and balance.

Small schools should be all but ignored. Tannenbombs and I have discussed that many times. The 89% figure backs it up. Major college powerhouses have so much talent it's inevitable that some slip through the cracks and don't fully bloom in college, or are simply stuck behind a superior player. The sheer numbers game dictates that scouts should examine those rosters fully instead of wasting time on one guy on a lower division roster. Don't fret missing out on an outlier. Everything should be based on margin for error.

Later round defensive backs always make a tremendous amount of sense. I cringe whenever we waste some late pick on a position that has very low likelihood of success. Shula didn't understand that aspect especially later in his career. The only very late pick he really connected on in the final years was J.B Brown in the 12th round.
 
Really like what you've done, Im sure you've learned alot doing it too. One thing that's often overlooked is the fact that these "hit rates" are a reflection of the mistakes being made by GMs on different position groups, the harder it is to find good players later in the draft simply means GMs are more proficient at evaluating those positions. Trying to outsmart opponents with these is a fools game.

If you'd have split DL by DT/EDGE, you would've noticed that you're very likely to find EDGE players earlier while IDL guys are very boom or bust in the 1st round. DTs have one of the most elite player success rate in at the top of the draft but also have the highest bust %, while the EDGE players have a very low elite success rate but are near the top of the groups with good players.

Lets take WRs and DTs for example as this illustrates my frustrations with the way Grier operates when picking players in the draft. WRs are one of the most top heavy position in the draft and also a high value position(top3) while DTs arent all that top heavy when speaking of non-pass rushing players and arent all that valuable.

Grier has used a top 60 pick for a DT in 2 consecutive drafts going as far as picking one at 13. Those 2 moves dont make any sense whether we're talking hit rates or positional value. There's really no way to justify this, NFL GMs dont value guys like Wilkins and Davis all that much and let them slip all the time and they also dont pay for them in FA. OTOH the Fins havent spent a pick on WR since 2017, using a 7th on Ford

What Grier is doing is trying to beat other GMs to positions they dont care about and letting them pick the players they're very good at picking before he does. I really like the fact that he did get an understanding about overall direction and asset management, there are mistakes here and there but overall, the Fins are very well setup for the next 3 years. But its not going to matter if he keeps picking players like this. The size of your stack doesnt matter if you're the fish at the table.

Very nice OP.
 
I agree. Personally I think that's the whole game here. I think Grier is going to go skill position heavy in the 1st 2 rounds this year and give them this season and next to see what we have. People discounting picking up that 1st 2 years from now are missing big picture. Dropping down 3 spots and putting yourself in position to grab Tua help all the while hedging your bet that in 2 years if he doesn't work out you have the firepower to grab a new QB with 2 1st round picks. While I'd gladly take another 1st round pick next year the one 2 years away becomes much more valuable as long as you add as much talent to effectively evaluate Tua. If we try to "out smart" the other gms and don't allow that evaluation process to play out with this draft we could be in trouble
 
Interesting article. Quite interesting that WRs have such a high bust rate.
 
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