Draft History and starting QBs

#13FinsFan

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I was just looking through the draft history for Qbs over the last 10 years and was amazed at how many first or second round picks turned out to be busts. I was also amazed at how many late round picks are current starters for NFL teams. Bulger 6th rd, Brady 6th rd, Rattay 7th rd, Brooks 4rth rd, Hasselbeck 6th rd, Griese 3rd rd. What are your thoughts on this? Is it better for us to draft a QB in the later rounds or take the risk to draft a QB at #2?
Oh and one interesting note: Sage was drafted ahead of Feeley in 2001. I did not know that.
 

yankeehillbilly

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Take a look at ALL the QBs drafted over the years. It may seem like a lot of later round QBs turned out OK, but when compared with the number of later round QBs that failed, the number that made it is really quite small. The thing is, you hear a lot about the late round gems and early round busts because they are unusual. You dont hear about late round QBs that fail because thats what they were supposed to do anyway.
 

fishypete

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yankeehillbilly said:
Take a look at ALL the QBs drafted over the years. It may seem like a lot of later round QBs turned out OK, but when compared with the number of later round QBs that failed, the number that made it is really quite small. The thing is, you hear a lot about the late round gems and early round busts because they are unusual. You dont hear about late round QBs that fail because thats what they were supposed to do anyway.
One thought Yankee....you don't mind if a late QB fails....it didn't cost the team as much in cap money and potential talent the team lost for the pick used.
I'm not exactly sure of this...but with all the great QB's talent out of the 83 draft...only one won a superbowl....Elway and he didn't win until he had enough weapons playing with him.
 

#13FinsFan

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yankeehillbilly said:
Take a look at ALL the QBs drafted over the years. It may seem like a lot of later round QBs turned out OK, but when compared with the number of later round QBs that failed, the number that made it is really quite small. The thing is, you hear a lot about the late round gems and early round busts because they are unusual. You dont hear about late round QBs that fail because thats what they were supposed to do anyway.
Yes I agree but when you draft a late round QB and they fail, who cares they didn't really cost you anything. However, If you waste a number two pick on a QB and they fail it costs you everything. Is it worth the risk?
 

islandah

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#13FinsFan said:
Yes I agree but when you draft a late round QB and they fail, who cares they didn't really cost you anything. However, If you waste a number two pick on a QB and they fail it costs you everything. Is it worth the risk?
High risk=Potential high reward
 

ih8brady

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Draftin QBs is a lot like Roulette. An early round pick is like betting on a color, a 50/50 shot. Drafting late is like betting on an indv number, theres a small chance of success but still a chance.
 

rafael

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Statistically, it doesn't make sense to pass on the early QB. I don't know where Saban got his 30% stat. Everytime I've heard it and when I've checked the histories myself the stat is 50%. That compares to late rd QBs where the stat is about 5%. Since you rarely find decent QBs available in FA, 50 % is about the best you can hope for.

The whole draft is a gamble. When you gamble you're best chance of success is playing the odds. And since QB is is the most important position, it's a gamble that you have to take.
 

yankeehillbilly

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#13FinsFan said:
Yes I agree but when you draft a late round QB and they fail, who cares they didn't really cost you anything. However, If you waste a number two pick on a QB and they fail it costs you everything. Is it worth the risk?
Given the odds, you could stab at late round QBs for decades without finding that elusive late round gem. Your chance of finding a great QB in the first two rounds is dramatically higher.

nothing ventured, nothing gained.
 

KB21

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fishypete said:
One thought Yankee....you don't mind if a late QB fails....it didn't cost the team as much in cap money and potential talent the team lost for the pick used.
I'm not exactly sure of this...but with all the great QB's talent out of the 83 draft...only one won a superbowl....Elway and he didn't win until he had enough weapons playing with him.
He never won a Superbowl without those weapons, but he put the team into a position to be in three before he had the weapons. Also, Denver has maintained the weapons since Elway's retirement, yet they haven't come close to going to the Superbowl. Why? The lack of that top quarterback.
 
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