Draft needs with Watson would be different

[Feverdream]

I hesitate to start a new speculative thread, but I think this is worth a look. I mentioned some of this in another thread, but I think it might be best as a stand alone. Mods: If you think I'm nuts... (more than usual), just merge it somewhere or send it to the locker.

Much, if not all, of the pre-draft analysis that we have done, we've done with Tua in mind. How do we build a team around his skill-set? How do we protect a slightly built left-handed QB? ALL of that goes away if we'd actually swing a trade for Watson... and I think that maybe it goes away in a manner that causes us to expend fewer resources during the draft. Let me take a crack at this... (bear with me)

Just switching from a lefty, back to a right-handed QB affects which side of the formation that you worry about. Even with today's more mobile QBs, you'll ALWAYS worry more about your QB's blind side. In Tua's case, this is the right side where strong run-blocking, but iffy lateral movement Robert Hunt currently resides. If you'd read my stuff or debated my opinions at all, you know that I think Hunt is insufficiently mobile to protect our investment in Tua. I've called for him to be moved inside to Guard where most of the draft analysts thought he belonged to begin with.

However... if he is protecting a right handed QB like Watson, Hunt is now a more typical run blocking Tackle. He won't be any better in his lateral movement or pass-blocking, but he'll be on the QBs sighted side and Watson will just run away from whatever pressure Hunt allows. To wit: we'd no longer need another expensive top end tackle. We could spend draft picks and FA dollars elsewhere.

Austin Jackson, who is a typical pass blocking Tackle would now be on Watson's blind side, and even though Jackson was not stellar, he was pretty good for the youngest Left Tackle in the NFL. ...and his expected improvement should come in years two and three. Again, sparing us the need to draft another expensive Tackle.

At the other spots, we'll need to make a call on Karras this year anyway, that doesn't change with the QB, but with no need to take a new Tackle, we might be able to spend a bit more on a Center. At the Guard spots, Kindley looked like a comer and Flowers is generally described as average (and signed for 2 more years if we choose to keep him).

Net result... we might only have to draft one lineman in the next 2-3 years. Those of you who shudder when I suggest drafting linemen... Watson would help you there.

Looking at our needs at WR, I see a Watson case for needing less there as well... He moves around very well, buying time with his feet and he isn't afraid to throw jump balls to his taller receivers... sort of like Fitz was able to do, but at a much higher level. ...and as badly as EVERY SINGLE POSTER on Finheaven has asked, begged, or demanded new WRs... the ones that we have might suit Watson very well indeed. Yes, we will... absolutely... still bring in at least one guy, maybe two... but I think Watson could do more with less right now than Tua can. Watson would buy us a year to bring in a star... and let's be honest, if we have Watson, WRs will be lining up to join our team so he can throw to them. Miami will be a destination of choice for hungry WRs.

So, what I'm thinking is this. Those who most hate the idea of obtaining Watson have all made comments about how signing Watson would seriously deplete our draft assets... and I'd like to suggest that 1) that would be temporary and 2) We might not need so many new players... if we had a star QB named Deshaun Watson.

Just a thought...

Sleep well.

 

[bostondolphin]

I hesitate to start a new speculative thread, but I think this is worth a look. I mentioned some of this in another thread, but I think it might be best as a stand alone. Mods: If you think I'm nuts... (more than usual), just merge it somewhere or send it to the locker.

Much, if not all, of the pre-draft analysis that we have done, we've done with Tua in mind. How do we build a team around his skill-set? How do we protect a slightly built left-handed QB? ALL of that goes away if we'd actually swing a trade for Watson... and I think that maybe it goes away in a manner that causes us to expend fewer resources during the draft. Let me take a crack at this... (bear with me)

Just switching from a lefty, back to a right-handed QB affects which side of the formation that you worry about. Even with today's more mobile QBs, you'll ALWAYS worry more about your QB's blind side. In Tua's case, this is the right side where strong run-blocking, but iffy lateral movement Robert Hunt currently resides. If you'd read my stuff or debated my opinions at all, you know that I think Hunt is insufficiently mobile to protect our investment in Tua. I've called for him to be moved inside to Guard where most of the draft analysts thought he belonged to begin with.

However... if he is protecting a right handed QB like Watson, Hunt is now a more typical run blocking Tackle. He won't be any better in his lateral movement or pass-blocking, but he'll be on the QBs sighted side and Watson will just run away from whatever pressure Hunt allows. To wit: we'd no longer need another expensive top end tackle. We could spend draft picks and FA dollars elsewhere.

Austin Jackson, who is a typical pass blocking Tackle would now be on Watson's blind side, and even though Jackson was not stellar, he was pretty good for the youngest Left Tackle in the NFL. ...and his expected improvement should come in years two and three. Again, sparing us the need to draft another expensive Tackle.

At the other spots, we'll need to make a call on Karras this year anyway, that doesn't change with the QB, but with no need to take a new Tackle, we might be able to spend a bit more on a Center. At the Guard spots, Kindley looked like a comer and Flowers is generally described as average (and signed for 2 more years if we choose to keep him).

Net result... we might only have to draft one lineman in the next 2-3 years. Those of you who shudder when I suggest drafting linemen... Watson would help you there.

Looking at our needs at WR, I see a Watson case for needing less there as well... He moves around very well, buying time with his feet and he isn't afraid to throw jump balls to his taller receivers... sort of like Fitz was able to do, but at a much higher level. ...and as badly as EVERY SINGLE POSTER on Finheaven has asked, begged, or demanded new WRs... the ones that we have might suit Watson very well indeed. Yes, we will... absolutely... still bring in at least one guy, maybe two... but I think Watson could do more with less right now than Tua can. Watson would buy us a year to bring in a star... and let's be honest, if we have Watson, WRs will be lining up to join our team so he can throw to them. Miami will be a destination of choice for hungry WRs.

So, what I'm thinking is this. Those who most hate the idea of obtaining Watson have all made comments about how signing Watson would seriously deplete our draft assets... and I'd like to suggest that 1) that would be temporary and 2) We might not need so many new players... if we had a star QB named Deshaun Watson.

Just a thought...

Sleep well.

I like this exercise.

After our discussion yesterday I went back and watched 2020 highlights of Watson. Obviously the guy is a mega talent and let's say top 5 NFL QB. Hard to deny that. The concern I had though is that seemingly all of his highlight plays went to Cooks and Fuller, and almost every time each one had more separation than I've ever seen a Miami WR have this year. Now obviously some of that could come from Watson's ability to buy time, or a better OC, better OL, whatever right? But I think a fair amount also comes from talent/skill/speed etc of those WR's.

If the Dolphins love Watson and give up assets to get him I'll be excited about it - I just don't want to find out that with our receivers he's not nearly as effective. When I look around at all the other top QB's, they all have more weapons and talent to work with than we have in Miami. So, do we focus on getting that talent with our picks and hoping the guy we just drafted at #5 can leverage them, or do we ensure we have QB1 covered and roll the dice we can get lucky in later rounds on WR's? I just don't know.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

We're fine regardless who the QB is in '21...

Hunt was one of the better RTs in the NFL down the stretch....

 

[jimthefin]

They would still need to add talent at WR and RB but the OL would need less work, depending on what they do at Center.

The Defense still needs a tweak or two but they can get by without doing anything major.

I like Tua and am not looking to move on from him BUT if they can get Watson at a fair price you have to do it.

He is already the QB we all hope Tua will develop into and is still very young.And his contract and cap hits are not terrible at all.

I am not giving up everything in the cupboard for him but if the deal is fair it would be hard to pass up.

I think Houston mends fences with him and he goes nowhere but you never know.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

This is a really well-thought out post.

I know the question really is Tua. What's his ceiling? I think it's top 10 and I'm not disappointed in his rookie year. But I said it before that I can't find four young quarterbacks that I'd rather have than Watson. Put it this way, if it was a Watson for Tua swap how many Dolphin fans wouldn't do that? Obviously, it's going to take a significant offer.

So, assuming he's available and Miami makes the trade I think your points make a lot of sense. Put Watson with this defense and a slightly better receiver and running back group and I think Miami is right up there with Buffalo and KC.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

They would still need to add talent at WR and RB but the OL would need less work, depending on what they do at Center.

The Defense still needs a tweak or two but they can get by without doing anything major.

I like Tua and am not looking to move on from him BUT if they can get Watson at a fair price you have to do it.

He is already the QB we all hope Tua will develop into and is still very young.And his contract and cap hits are not terrible at all.

I am not giving up everything in the cupboard for him but if the deal is fair it would be hard to pass up.

I think Houston mends fences with him and he goes nowhere but you never know.

Yeah, I think Houston would be foolish to trade him.

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

The one thing I have always found questionable about Watson is his almost Tannehill-esque ability to run into sacks. He has been sacked 174 times in 53 starts. More of his drop backs end in sacks (9.1%) than TDs (5.9%) and INTs (2.1%) combined. The reason I bring thing up is because I think we would need to focus on our OL more than you suggest. At some point him taking all the hits will wear him down, just like it did to Tannehill in 2016, and he will end up hurt. I don’t like to see a guy making $40M take the amount of hits he does.

 

[jimthefin]

Yeah, I think Houston would be foolish to trade him.

Well yeah, but you know.....Houston.

 

[Feverdream]

This is a really well-thought out post.

I know the question really is Tua. What's his ceiling? I think it's top 10 and I'm not disappointed in his rookie year. But I said it before that I can't find four young quarterbacks that I'd rather have than Watson. Put it this way, if it was a Watson for Tua swap how many Dolphin fans wouldn't do that? Obviously, it's going to take a significant offer.

So, assuming he's available and Miami makes the trade I think your points make a lot of sense. Put Watson with this defense and a slightly better receiver and running back group and I think Miami is right up there with Buffalo and KC.

Thanks for the kind words...

I think sometimes fans get caught up in a one-size-fits-all kind of analysis and tend to miss how the various pieces fit together. Tua has specific requirements that are a bit different than 98% of the other QBs in the NFL. Being left-handed, while not a problem, does create different challenges in setting up your line. Whether a QB is large or small, mobile or a statue in the pocket... quick to read/throw or willing to wait for routes to open up... all of these things have an impact on who you want to bring in. ...and no, despite a couple of halfway decent statistical games near the end of the season, I do NOT think Robert Hunt has the feet to protect a 6 foot tall, left-handed QB long term. That is a recipe for eventual disaster spun by guys who don't want to draft linemen.

Watson is a completely different animal. For instance...

Some will point to the high number of sacks that he takes, but some of these are just a factor of how long he holds the ball, and whether he was willing to lose a yard or three in an effort to run the ball, rather than throw it away. Some fans just count the sacks and don't question how he was sacked. I bring this up, because a guy like Watson is going to be credited with more sacks than a guy who takes a quick look, then checks down or throws the ball out of bounds. Losing 1 yard is credited as a sack... there are no style points for how the loss happened. (maybe there should be)

The types of throws that you are willing to make also affects with what type of players you need for your QB. An ultra careful QB is going to need smaller, quick receivers that generate separation... but will likely have more trouble in the red zone when windows are tighter. A YOLO guy with tall receivers may struggle in the open field but do better in tight quarters...

What we saw last year was that our current receivers did not help Tua nearly as much as they helped Fizpatrick. This does not imply that they were better... or worse, only that each QB needed a different type of receiver, and the guys that we had/have... don't fit Tua's game much.

I'm not implying that we should go get Watson because our existing receivers fit him better, I'm just suggesting that it we had Watson, we wouldn't need so many new ones. No value judgement here... only an A implies B kind of argument. We certainly can do it either way... and over whatever time period that the Front Office chooses, unlike the fanbase who want it done yesterday at the latest.

Still... the odds are against us stealing Watson, if for no other reason than the Houston Front Office is going to really leary of being in a position where they 'lose' another trade with Miami. Their fan base would riot. Obtaining Watson would come down to a couple of factors... first Watson would have to put his foot down, letting the Houston team know that he will be speaking openly to the press in every press conference... and secondly, there would have to be a general lack of offers from the rest of the league.

I will say this... the fact that Houston has already released leaks saying that Tua isn't the type of QB they are looking for... actually makes it more likely that they are considering moving Watson. They wouldn't need to leak this kind of info if they were playing hardball to keep Watson. Their denial is worse than if they'd said nothing. Houston still doesn't seem to know how to play poker.

 

[GrieseMarinoTua]

If we get Watson I doubt we’ll be able to improve the skill positions in off, we’ll be giving up a fair few pix

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Thanks for the kind words...

I think sometimes fans get caught up in a one-size-fits-all kind of analysis and tend to miss how the various pieces fit together. Tua has specific requirements that are a bit different than 98% of the other QBs in the NFL. Being left-handed, while not a problem, does create different challenges in setting up your line. Whether a QB is large or small, mobile or a statue in the pocket... quick to read/throw or willing to wait for routes to open up... all of these things have an impact on who you want to bring in. ...and no, despite a couple of halfway decent statistical games near the end of the season, I do NOT think Robert Hunt has the feet to protect a 6 foot tall, left-handed QB long term. That is a recipe for eventual disaster spun by guys who don't want to draft linemen.

Watson is a completely different animal. For instance...

Some will point to the high number of sacks that he takes, but some of these are just a factor of how long he holds the ball, and whether he was willing to lose a yard or three in an effort to run the ball, rather than throw it away. Some fans just count the sacks and don't question how he was sacked. I bring this up, because a guy like Watson is going to be credited with more sacks than a guy who takes a quick look, then checks down or throws the ball out of bounds. Losing 1 yard is credited as a sack... there are no style points for how the loss happened. (maybe there should be)

The types of throws that you are willing to make also affects with what type of players you need for your QB. An ultra careful QB is going to need smaller, quick receivers that generate separation... but will likely have more trouble in the red zone when windows are tighter. A YOLO guy with tall receivers may struggle in the open field but do better in tight quarters...

What we saw last year was that our current receivers did not help Tua nearly as much as they helped Fizpatrick. This does not imply that they were better... or worse, only that each QB needed a different type of receiver, and the guys that we had/have... don't fit Tua's game much.

I'm not implying that we should go get Watson because our existing receivers fit him better, I'm just suggesting that it we had Watson, we wouldn't need so many new ones. No value judgement here... only an A implies B kind of argument. We certainly can do it either way... and over whatever time period that the Front Office chooses, unlike the fanbase who want it done yesterday at the latest.

Still... the odds are against us stealing Watson, if for no other reason than the Houston Front Office is going to really leary of being in a position where they 'lose' another trade with Miami. Their fan base would riot. Obtaining Watson would come down to a couple of factors... first Watson would have to put his foot down, letting the Houston team know that he will be speaking openly to the press in every press conference... and secondly, there would have to be a general lack of offers from the rest of the league.

I will say this... the fact that Houston has already released leaks saying that Tua isn't the type of QB they are looking for... actually makes it more likely that they are considering moving Watson. They wouldn't need to leak this kind of info if they were playing hardball to keep Watson. Their denial is worse than if they'd said nothing. Houston still doesn't seem to know how to play poker.

Good point on the Tua comments from the Houston front office.

If the Texans really don't want Tua in a Miami trade, I'm sure other teams would. San Francisco comes to mind. Shanahan would likely love that possibility.