ckparrothead
Premium Member
I took a look at the Dolphins' possible draft priorities, using our knowledge of players that the Dolphins have spoken to or shown particular interest. Thanks in large part to Boomer, who has been ferreting out tons of individual names that the Dolphins have spoken with, but also some other names that have not appeared on his lists (yet?), we have a good 125+ names to go on.
What I've done with these names is use my own knowledge as well as some commonly accepted ratings to rate the players a 1 through 5 based on likely draft consideration.
A 1 is actually a player we would likely have to trade up for, rather than a guy we could take at #25. An example of a guy that we have shown interest in that claims a 1 rating would be B.J. Raji. We couldn't get him at #25, no way, no how. So if we're talking to him, it falls under the due diligence category as well as the potential trade up category.
A 2 is a player that we could take as high as #25, or as low as #56. I'm not trying to split hairs here and say, oh well this guy we would consider at #44 but #25 is too high, etc. When you get cute like that, it can hurt the overall analysis. I think that grouping the entire first day together in terms of position interest is a more fruitful venture.
A 3 is a player that we could take with our #87 pick in the draft, or our #108 pick in the draft. These picks are, not unlike the #25 to #56 picks, bunched together reasonably closely, with a fair amount of space separating these picks from the #56 pick in the draft.
A 4 is a player that we could take as high as our #161 pick (which is a good two rounds away from our #108 pick, mind you), or as low as our #237 pick. In this area of the draft I do find that grades begin to seriously bunch together, so I don't mind considering them all in group with one another.
A 5 is a player that is obviously looking at going undrafted. Examples of this would be QBs Richie Williams and Justin Edelman.
I split positions up into simple QB, RB (incl. FB), TE, WR, OL, DL, OLB, ILB, CB and S.
Some other ways that I cracked it up include looking at the numbers on a relative basis, relative to the number of those players carried on a roster. For instance, if you've shown interest in 6 QBs and 6 RBs, which seems more significant? A roster will typically hold 5 RBs but only 3 QBs. The interest in the QBs, therefore, seems a little bit more prioritized.
The overall priorities, regardless of round splits, don't seem that surprising.
1. Cornerbacks - 3.6
2. Receivers - 3.0
3. Outside Backers - 3.0
4. Offensive Line - 2.8
5. Inside Backers - 2.5
6. Safety - 1.8
7. Tight End - 1.7
8. Quarterback - 1.7
9. Defensive Line - 0.9
10. Running Back - 0.8
The top three certainly should surprise nobody, although it may surprise some as to which order they're in. These are positions where we clearly could be looking for starting, premium caliber players and the sheer volume of players that we have been investigating, interviewing and showing particular interest in, relative to the number of players we would typically carry at that position on our roster, bears that out.
It's also not surprising that Inside Backers and Offensive Line come next, as these are positions where we have starters, but some may be in tenuous positions either due a lack of premium level talent, injury history, etc. At either of these positions we need a premium backup player, but also wouldn't blush at the possibility of getting a guy that could start.
At Tight End, Quarterback and Safety, we've clearly got people that we like in the long run as starters but we need depth at the positions.
Surprising is how low on the totem pole the Defensive Line and Running Back positions are. On this roster, we carry 8 defensive lineman. This regime loves them. Yet, we've only shown interest in 10 of them in total, and of those 2 are B.J. Raji and Tyson Jackson, guys we would have to trade up to get and therefore are likely only doing some due diligence on them. As far as figuring out if there is one particular area of the draft where we are more interested in DLs than other areas, it is pretty evenly distributed. My interpretation is that this is a position where we would take a guy if he fell into our lap, but not one to prioritize.
At running back, the same can be said, except the bulk of our interest comes in guys that we could get in the late 5th through late 7th rounds, or Undrafted. Again, my interpretation is that this is not a position of priority and we would only have interest in someone if they were to fall into our laps. For example, we have shown some marked interest in LeSean McCoy recently, as he looks to fall down the boards. My guess is they will not allow a premium talent like McCoy to fall TOO far through the second round into Day 2. Just a hunch. But, otherwise, they are probably looking to take a guy in the 7th round.
Some other observations:
1. Our interest in Outside Backers is not only heavy, but lopsided as well. They have primarily shown interest in OLBs that they would take at #25, #44 or #56. After that, the interest in OLBs trickles. My interpretation is that the draft does not hold that many players that could play OLB in a 3-4, and due to the increasing number of 3-4 teams, all of the guys that can play it are rising into the lower 1st, 2nd, or upper 3rd round areas of the draft. Since the Dolphins are genuinely interested in adding at least one pass rusher, they have no choice but to look at them with picks #25, #44 and #56.
2. The interest in Cornerbacks is heavy, and evenly distributed. Priority seems to be placed slightly on earlier, rather than later. They do not appear as interested in guys they could take with a 7th rounder or as a UDFA, as they are guys they could take from picks #25 through #108. Look for them to draft two Cornerbacks, but not two in the first day of the draft. I would put solid money on that. Not that I am saying anything that people would not have already guessed, but the reality is when this sort of study only confirms what we would have already thought, it's all the more significant.
3. Judging from the things I'm noticing, I would expect an interior OL to be taken with pick #87 or #108. Our interest in tackles seems to be in guys that are potentially too good to pass up at some point in the draft (Britton, Meredith, Loadholt, Vollmer), or guys that should go very late in the draft (the infamous Right Tackle Only types, or at least guys you wouldn't trust to play on the left side within a year or two). This makes sense from a roster makeup standpoint. Overall, the interest in OLs is strong enough that we should expect two to end up drafted.
PREDICTION TIME
We have picks #25, #44, #56, #87, #108, #161, #181, #214, and #237 in this year's draft.
*I expect us to draft 2 CBs, 2 WRs, 2 OLs, 1 OLB, 1 ILB, 1 TE or 1 RB.
*A wildcard is that they will draft a QB later in the draft (#161 through #237) if they manage to trade John Beck off to a team for a pick.
*On the first day of the draft, we will come away with an OLB and a CB for certain. I'd bet money on it.
*The third pick will be a tossup (BPA) between OL, WR, TE or ILB. But that doesn't mean that it'll necessarily be at #56. Any of those four positions could come out even as high as #25. But if one does, the next two picks will be OLB and CB, probably in that order.
*Picks #87 and #108 are seeming likely for a TE and an interior OL. They could get a TE before these picks, which would push WR or ILB down here.
*We will probably see a RB or FB taken in the 7th round.
*I do not expect a DL to be taken in the draft.
Some of this (but not all of it) could change if the Dolphins manage to move down and acquire more picks, which I am absolutely sure they are trying to do.
What I've done with these names is use my own knowledge as well as some commonly accepted ratings to rate the players a 1 through 5 based on likely draft consideration.
A 1 is actually a player we would likely have to trade up for, rather than a guy we could take at #25. An example of a guy that we have shown interest in that claims a 1 rating would be B.J. Raji. We couldn't get him at #25, no way, no how. So if we're talking to him, it falls under the due diligence category as well as the potential trade up category.
A 2 is a player that we could take as high as #25, or as low as #56. I'm not trying to split hairs here and say, oh well this guy we would consider at #44 but #25 is too high, etc. When you get cute like that, it can hurt the overall analysis. I think that grouping the entire first day together in terms of position interest is a more fruitful venture.
A 3 is a player that we could take with our #87 pick in the draft, or our #108 pick in the draft. These picks are, not unlike the #25 to #56 picks, bunched together reasonably closely, with a fair amount of space separating these picks from the #56 pick in the draft.
A 4 is a player that we could take as high as our #161 pick (which is a good two rounds away from our #108 pick, mind you), or as low as our #237 pick. In this area of the draft I do find that grades begin to seriously bunch together, so I don't mind considering them all in group with one another.
A 5 is a player that is obviously looking at going undrafted. Examples of this would be QBs Richie Williams and Justin Edelman.
I split positions up into simple QB, RB (incl. FB), TE, WR, OL, DL, OLB, ILB, CB and S.
Some other ways that I cracked it up include looking at the numbers on a relative basis, relative to the number of those players carried on a roster. For instance, if you've shown interest in 6 QBs and 6 RBs, which seems more significant? A roster will typically hold 5 RBs but only 3 QBs. The interest in the QBs, therefore, seems a little bit more prioritized.
The overall priorities, regardless of round splits, don't seem that surprising.
1. Cornerbacks - 3.6
2. Receivers - 3.0
3. Outside Backers - 3.0
4. Offensive Line - 2.8
5. Inside Backers - 2.5
6. Safety - 1.8
7. Tight End - 1.7
8. Quarterback - 1.7
9. Defensive Line - 0.9
10. Running Back - 0.8
The top three certainly should surprise nobody, although it may surprise some as to which order they're in. These are positions where we clearly could be looking for starting, premium caliber players and the sheer volume of players that we have been investigating, interviewing and showing particular interest in, relative to the number of players we would typically carry at that position on our roster, bears that out.
It's also not surprising that Inside Backers and Offensive Line come next, as these are positions where we have starters, but some may be in tenuous positions either due a lack of premium level talent, injury history, etc. At either of these positions we need a premium backup player, but also wouldn't blush at the possibility of getting a guy that could start.
At Tight End, Quarterback and Safety, we've clearly got people that we like in the long run as starters but we need depth at the positions.
Surprising is how low on the totem pole the Defensive Line and Running Back positions are. On this roster, we carry 8 defensive lineman. This regime loves them. Yet, we've only shown interest in 10 of them in total, and of those 2 are B.J. Raji and Tyson Jackson, guys we would have to trade up to get and therefore are likely only doing some due diligence on them. As far as figuring out if there is one particular area of the draft where we are more interested in DLs than other areas, it is pretty evenly distributed. My interpretation is that this is a position where we would take a guy if he fell into our lap, but not one to prioritize.
At running back, the same can be said, except the bulk of our interest comes in guys that we could get in the late 5th through late 7th rounds, or Undrafted. Again, my interpretation is that this is not a position of priority and we would only have interest in someone if they were to fall into our laps. For example, we have shown some marked interest in LeSean McCoy recently, as he looks to fall down the boards. My guess is they will not allow a premium talent like McCoy to fall TOO far through the second round into Day 2. Just a hunch. But, otherwise, they are probably looking to take a guy in the 7th round.
Some other observations:
1. Our interest in Outside Backers is not only heavy, but lopsided as well. They have primarily shown interest in OLBs that they would take at #25, #44 or #56. After that, the interest in OLBs trickles. My interpretation is that the draft does not hold that many players that could play OLB in a 3-4, and due to the increasing number of 3-4 teams, all of the guys that can play it are rising into the lower 1st, 2nd, or upper 3rd round areas of the draft. Since the Dolphins are genuinely interested in adding at least one pass rusher, they have no choice but to look at them with picks #25, #44 and #56.
2. The interest in Cornerbacks is heavy, and evenly distributed. Priority seems to be placed slightly on earlier, rather than later. They do not appear as interested in guys they could take with a 7th rounder or as a UDFA, as they are guys they could take from picks #25 through #108. Look for them to draft two Cornerbacks, but not two in the first day of the draft. I would put solid money on that. Not that I am saying anything that people would not have already guessed, but the reality is when this sort of study only confirms what we would have already thought, it's all the more significant.
3. Judging from the things I'm noticing, I would expect an interior OL to be taken with pick #87 or #108. Our interest in tackles seems to be in guys that are potentially too good to pass up at some point in the draft (Britton, Meredith, Loadholt, Vollmer), or guys that should go very late in the draft (the infamous Right Tackle Only types, or at least guys you wouldn't trust to play on the left side within a year or two). This makes sense from a roster makeup standpoint. Overall, the interest in OLs is strong enough that we should expect two to end up drafted.
PREDICTION TIME
We have picks #25, #44, #56, #87, #108, #161, #181, #214, and #237 in this year's draft.
*I expect us to draft 2 CBs, 2 WRs, 2 OLs, 1 OLB, 1 ILB, 1 TE or 1 RB.
*A wildcard is that they will draft a QB later in the draft (#161 through #237) if they manage to trade John Beck off to a team for a pick.
*On the first day of the draft, we will come away with an OLB and a CB for certain. I'd bet money on it.
*The third pick will be a tossup (BPA) between OL, WR, TE or ILB. But that doesn't mean that it'll necessarily be at #56. Any of those four positions could come out even as high as #25. But if one does, the next two picks will be OLB and CB, probably in that order.
*Picks #87 and #108 are seeming likely for a TE and an interior OL. They could get a TE before these picks, which would push WR or ILB down here.
*We will probably see a RB or FB taken in the 7th round.
*I do not expect a DL to be taken in the draft.
Some of this (but not all of it) could change if the Dolphins manage to move down and acquire more picks, which I am absolutely sure they are trying to do.
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