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Draft Value Question

JTech194

JTech194

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Can someone explain this draft value concept to me. For example, I've heard most people say DGB has top 10 talent, but his off the field issues make him a reach at 14... so he'd be more of a 20-25th pick in the first round. How does that work? So teams shouldn't risk a #14 first round pick on him due to the off field issues but it's ok to risk the #20th pick on him??? How is that math done? Dez Bryant dropped because of this Risk value concept and so did Randy Moss but I don't know one person knowing what we know now wouldn't take the risk and draft them top 10.

This isn't a draft DGB thread, that's not the point here. My point is, if there's a guy with top 10 talent ON THE FIELD, you take him, and if you have to assign a 24 hour security detail on him to ensure he stays out of trouble... so be it. Especially when there's not another option with similar talent available to you when you pick.

For example if you think DBG (or any other player) is lets say the 2nd best WR in the draft (with Dez Bryant type upside), and your 1st and 3rd rated WR's were off the board... and your 4th rated WR is on the board and you have him with lets say Greg Jennings type upside... who do you take? A possible Greg Jennings OR a possible Dez Bryant?
 
It is simple really, you blend objective (stats, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks etc...quantifiable things based on performance) with subjective (team interactions, opinions of character, work ethics etc...). All of that meddles together to form what equates to an opinion based on available data weighted against others.

Everyone has opinions on what and where a person is going to perform like based on the above, raw talent usually out weighs character issues because this is a performance based league. Sometimes the character issues are great enough that they weigh down the raw talent and that might make a person slide down the boards based on overall value.
 
I agree that there isn't much difference in #14 and #20 and if you are worried about a player, it might be better to avoid him altogether. A troubled player like DGB may have a Dez Bryant upside, but he also has a Justin Blackmon downside.
 
This is easily solved by taking DGB off your draft board entirely.
 
Every situation is different.

DGB, for me, needs a lot of work. I think some people have this fantasy of throwing a 6'6 toy out there with a great H/W/S combo and think he can play WR and snatch everything within 5 yards of him and leap tall buildings, etc.

He's raw, and for how big he is, he doesn't play to his size IMO. He's definitely needs to get stronger. Right now, for me at least, at most he's a redzone threat in year 1. #4/#5 WR. I could also see him being inactive most of the season if Matthews and Hazel out perform him.

How he takes to coaching, if he can keep himself out of trouble off the field and him putting in the hard work on the field, in practice . . . .will determine how far he'll go. He's not the first guy to be physically gifted with those measurables . . . and many of those guys have failed as well.

I like to compare him to Vincent Jackson as a prospect. Raw WR, but athletically gifted. 6'5 . . . 4.45 40 . . . hell even had a 39 inch vertical. Clean prospect off the field, parents were both in the Army. He went at the end of round 2 and it took him to the end of his THIRD season before he became a special player. These guys take time. They need to learn how to seperate at this level and deal with physical CBs.

Top 15 is such a ludicrous notion for DGB and I'm personally tired of hearing about people wanting to vouch for him there. Would be the worst pick the Dolphins have made . . . . hell maybe ever. Just a dumb pick at 14.
 
datruth55 said:
This is easily solved by taking DGB off your draft board entirely.
Click to expand...

That's really the only thing that makes sense to me. If you don't think a player is going to be available to the team because of character issues, then why draft him at all? He can't help you from jail, or suspension. I'd much rather give a guy that i know is going to be available a shot.
 
People/teams make a bigger deal about draft value then they should.. Draft Day should be a simple process after all the pre draft preparation.

All teams need to do is create a list ranking all players from 1-300 or so.

Mark off players as they come off the board and when its your turn to draft. pick 1 of the top guys left on your list... simple no?

Teams have tried getting cute/smart or think they are smarter then everyone else and try different systems and it normally fails (Looing at you Ireland).

Stick to the basics and drafting is simple once all the pre draft work is done.
 
Chubby said:
People/teams make a bigger deal about draft value then they should.. Draft Day should be a simple process after all the pre draft preparation.

All teams need to do is create a list ranking all players from 1-300 or so.

Mark off players as they come off the board and when its your turn to draft. pick 1 of the top guys left on your list... simple no?

Teams have tried getting cute/smart or think they are smarter then everyone else and try different systems and it normally fails (Looing at you Ireland).

Stick to the basics and drafting is simple once all the pre draft work is done.
Click to expand...

It's not that simple . Sometimes guys fall far enough where you want to move up and grab him . Or ... Guys left on your list aren't value for the pick you're sitting at , yet a guy is left who a lot of teams want and maybe you want to move back or trade players / picks .

This isn't fantasy football . What you're thinking about is fantasy football
 
JTech194 said:
My point is, if there's a guy with top 10 talent ON THE FIELD, you take him, and if you have to assign a 24 hour security detail on him to ensure he stays out of trouble... so be it.
Click to expand...

That's impossible to do in the offseason, when they can be found running down the street slashing their own throat (Dimitrius Underwood), suspended a whole season for drug issues (Justin Blackmon), getting 15 years in prison for climbing into a woman's window to "watch her sleep" (Cecil Collins), or murdering people (Aaron Hernandez). Plus, the NFL is getting more aggressive about dishing out suspensions for domestic violence & drug test failures.

As I said on another thread, Dorial Green-Beckham is a physical freak. But his college stats were mediocre, he has a poor work ethic, poor route runner, drug arrests, beats up women, red flags all over. I mean, we already have one physical freak on our roster (LaRon Byrd, 6'4", 220 lbs, 4.45 speed). If we really want another physical freak WR, then Darren Waller in the 4th rd (6'6", 238 lbs, 4.44 speed, one of the few WRs with zero drops last year), is a far better deal than DGB in the 1st rd.
 
Edit: See Lawrence Phillips.

You can have all the talent in the world. You can't assign 24-hour security on free unincarcerated people. Doesn't matter who it is, the players union and the legal system wouldn't allow it.

Behavior is the hardest thing to change in adults after it is ingrained in them. You think that someone with potentially serious character issues will suddenly come around as soon as you hand them a few million dollars? If anything, the behavior becomes worst because now they have many more resources at their disposal.

Case in Point: Lawrence Phillips was kicked off the Nebraska Cornhuskers team after assaulting his ex-girlfriend and was later re-instated. He was 6th pick in the first round of the 1996 draft by the St. Louis Rams. Even though St. Louis coach Dick Vermeil called Phillips the best running back he ever coached, the Rams released Phillips from the team in under two years due to inconsistent performance and his inability to stay out of trouble. The Miami Dolphins picked up Phillips and he played 2 games before being released after assaulting a woman in a nightclub. He is currently serving 30+ years in prison for multiple counts of assault where he is currently the lead suspect in his cell mate's murder.

Not everyone is Lawrence Phillips, but it's a cautionary tale where you don't let "talent" blind you to the person that someone is.
 
Hc90 said:
It's not that simple . Sometimes guys fall far enough where you want to move up and grab him . Or ... Guys left on your list aren't value for the pick you're sitting at , yet a guy is left who a lot of teams want and maybe you want to move back or trade players / picks .

This isn't fantasy football . What you're thinking about is fantasy football
Click to expand...

I think it is that easy. Again teams like the patriots move and move and move and in the end their drafts are subpar.. good drafting teams for the most part stay put and select the BPA . Steelers, GB etc....
 
once again.... DGB type of players... can be a bust on the field, but also can be a bust off the field. makes it a bigger risk... red flags need to be concidered always

worst would be him busting on and off the field too
 
Impossible? the cops do it all the time and they don't have the unlimited funds an NFL team has. You can't do it with every player but for one or two potential STARS I think it's possible. The question is... if you have to do it, should you be drafting the player at all? If that player ends up helping your team win the SB, would investing around the clock security to tail him be worth it? For Me I say NO. I'm not going to pay a player millions AND have to babysit him. But for an owner like Jerry Jones.... He'd do it in a heartbeat.
 
BlueUndertow said:
Edit: See Lawrence Phillips.

You can have all the talent in the world. You can't assign 24-hour security on free unincarcerated people. Doesn't matter who it is, the players union and the legal system wouldn't allow it.

Behavior is the hardest thing to change in adults after it is ingrained in them. You think that someone with potentially serious character issues will suddenly come around as soon as you hand them a few million dollars? If anything, the behavior becomes worst because now they have many more resources at their disposal.

Case in Point: Lawrence Phillips was kicked off the Nebraska Cornhuskers team after assaulting his ex-girlfriend and was later re-instated. He was 6th pick in the first round of the 1996 draft by the St. Louis Rams. Even though St. Louis coach Dick Vermeil called Phillips the best running back he ever coached, the Rams released Phillips from the team in under two years due to inconsistent performance and his inability to stay out of trouble. The Miami Dolphins picked up Phillips and he played 2 games before being released after assaulting a woman in a nightclub. He is currently serving 30+ years in prison for multiple counts of assault where he is currently the lead suspect in his cell mate's murder.

Not everyone is Lawrence Phillips, but it's a cautionary tale where you don't let "talent" blind you to the person that someone is.
Click to expand...

But for every Lawrence Phillips, I can give you a Micheal Irving, Chris Carter, Lawrence Taylor, Randy Moss etc... the fact of the matter is, many NFL players battle some type of daemon. It's impossible to tell which ones will overcome them, mature and be productive citizens or which ones will succumb to them and end up out of the league. You're taking a risk with ANY player you draft because even if they've had a clean history up until draft night, once they get that check, fame, notoriety etc... no one knows how they will behave.
 
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