Drew Rosenhaus on Tua vs. Burrow

[EJay]

Last night on WSVN Sports Xtra south Florida TV, Rosenhaus was on as usual and was asked who he would pick first, Tua or Burrow. His answer- Burrow, easily. Feels that he is a special QB, special talent.

Well Trent Dilfer was on Cowherd today and was asked if Burrow has moved ahead of Tua and Dilfer said basically scouts would probably laugh at that question stating that Tua was the best prospect he has ever evaluated and is a generational type talent. He said he liked the other QB's as well but he thought Tua was special.

So it's pretty simple.

If you're a Burrow guy, you'll find a way to validate Rosenhaus' opinion.
If you're a Tagovailoa guy, you'll find a way to validate Dilfer's opinion.

That's how this all works.

So let me go first.

One guy represents players. The other guy was an NFL player. And evaluates college/NFL QB's for a living.

It's a fallible profession, for sure. An inexact science. But I'd still bet on someone that played the position in the NFL and now mentors and evaluates QB's in an after career profession versus a guy that merely represents them.

 

[EJay]

Burrow's throw was actually 10 feet shorter than Tua's throw but still took longer to get there. There was no excuse for the lack of ball speed. In fact, the lack of ball speed is probably directly responsible for the receiver ending up out of bounds. They're lucky the officials mistakenly ruled that he was forced out of bounds, which meant he could reestablish his feet inbounds, and the ball took so damned long to get there he was actually able to do that.

But make no mistake, Burrow's throw is not an NFL throw. Tua's throw would've got there 0.30 seconds faster at the same distance. That's a lot of time.

On the other side of the coin, if Burrow were to throw the same ball Tua threw on that 4th & 2, the same distance, then it would have taken 0.34 seconds longer to get there. The receiver would've been out of bounds.

But hey. Maybe the official would've ruled that he was forced out of bounds and then the ball would take so long to get there he could step back in and reestablish.

I think Joe Burrow could end up being a nice prospect and perhaps develop into a nice NFL QB. Anything is possible.

But this draft thing is largely about maximizing the percentages. And a lot of evaluators see the same things you describe above.

Meanwhile, a lot of Dolphins fans that are hoping for a shining white knight are wowed by things that don't necessarily translate.

I mean, Vince Young had one of the most memorable college football seasons this millennium. He stepped up and dominated in the biggest of games against the best of teams. Ohio State and USC come to mind. He parlayed that into a Heisman Trophy. But none of that translated into a good NFL QB.

There are other examples that can be cited as well.

But all that's important to those overly impressed with Joe Burrow's Cinderella season is that his team is winning games and he's piling up great numbers in those games and might win a Heisman because of it. They aren't interested in the level of defenses he's facing or any of the factors you outlined above.

I'll bet a lot of the fans jumping on the Burrow bandwagon were also sold on Baker Mayfield 2 years ago. But likely won't admit it. (Yes, I realize Mayfield had a decent rookie season. But he doesn't at all look like a 'special' QB).

 

[Birdmond]

I think Joe Burrow could end up being a nice prospect and perhaps develop into a nice NFL QB. Anything is possible.

But this draft thing is largely about maximizing the percentages. And a lot of evaluators see the same things you describe above.

Meanwhile, a lot of Dolphins fans that are hoping for a shining white knight are wowed by things that don't necessarily translate.

I mean, Vince Young had one of the most memorable college football seasons this millennium. He stepped up and dominated in the biggest of games against the best of teams. Ohio State and USC come to mind. He parlayed that into a Heisman Trophy. But none of that translated into a good NFL QB.

There are other examples that can be cited as well.

But all that's important to those overly impressed with Joe Burrow's Cinderella season is that his team is winning games and he's piling up great numbers in those games and might win a Heisman because of it. They aren't interested in the level of defenses he's facing or any of the factors you outlined above.

I'll bet a lot of the fans jumping on the Burrow bandwagon were also sold on Baker Mayfield 2 years ago. But likely won't admit it. (Yes, I realize Mayfield had a decent rookie season. But he doesn't at all look like a 'special' QB).

I was and still am on the Mayfield bandwagon. He looked very good last night. Cleveland trading for OBJ instead of fielding a respectable OL is what ruined this season for the Browns. That and hiring Freddie.

As for Burrow I’m not just on the wagon. I’ve been on it since he was in high school. My son went to Ohio University in Athens where Burrow played high school ball.

But I will say I kind of feel the same way about Burrow and Tua. I feel they can both be very good NFL QB’s but that doesn’t do it for me. I want first ballot Hall of Famer. I think that’s why I’m kind of enjoying the wins and don’t really care much for where Miami picks.

 

[ckparrothead]

I don't know that there's a lot of crossover with Mayfield and Burrow people. Like Birdmond, I was (and am) a Mayfield guy as well. I am not a Burrow guy.

The concern about Burrow's arm strength is that I can sit here and show you, throw for throw, clip by clip, all these similar throws between Joe Burrow and either Tua Tagovailoa or Jake Fromm, and how Burrow's velocity always comes in consistently and significantly lower than the velocity of those two.

And yet, both of those players (Tua and Fromm) are consistently questioned by the crowd for their marginal arm strength. And not without reason, as I could do the same exercise with Tua/Fromm versus let's say a Justin Herbert or Jordan Love, and show you how consistently and significantly their velocities come in lower than Herbert/Love.

So if Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm are already at the lower end of the spectrum that way...what the hell is Joe Burrow?

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

So if Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm are already at the lower end of the spectrum that way...what the hell is Joe Burrow?

From their scouting combine:

Patrick Mahomes: 60 mph
Davis Webb: 59 mph
DeShone Kizer: 56 mph
Mitch Trubisky and Jerod Evans: 55 mph
Nate Peterman and Brad Kaaya: 53 mph
Deshaun Watson: 49 mph

Methinks too much is made of arm velocity. These numbers seem to back that thought up. If Watson can be as successful as he is with his velocity...so can Burrow.

Greg Gabriel: Is a quarterback's velocity an indicator of how good he will be in the NFL?

 

[ckparrothead]

From their scouting combine:

Patrick Mahomes: 60 mph
Davis Webb: 59 mph
DeShone Kizer: 56 mph
Mitch Trubisky and Jerod Evans: 55 mph
Nate Peterman and Brad Kaaya: 53 mph
Deshaun Watson: 49 mph

Methinks too much is made of arm velocity. These numbers seem to back that thought up. If Watson can be as successful as he is with his velocity...so can Burrow.

Greg Gabriel: Is a quarterback's velocity an indicator of how good he will be in the NFL?

There isn't a single team that uses the radar gun measurements at the Combine. They're irrelevant. It's peak velocity in an antiseptic setting.

Actual point to point time/velocity measurements of what a player does in a game, how he's comfortable throwing the football, those do matter.

As for DeShaun Watson's velocity at the Combine on those radar gun readings, which are notoriously squirrelly and error prone, he regularly outpaces that reading during football games. And he did that at Clemson too, though not frequently because he threw a lot of touch passes there. Part of why the radar measurements are irrelevant even to the arm strength question, let alone to the entire evaluation as a whole.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

There isn't a single team that uses the radar gun measurements at the Combine. They're irrelevant. It's peak velocity in an antiseptic setting.

Actual velocity measurements of what a player does in a game, how he's comfortable throwing the football, those do matter.

What are the passes that Burrow has trouble with due to his velocity?

When I say trouble I am referring more to which throws has he made, or not made, that in the NFL signal a 2nd/3rd tier QB?

 

[ckparrothead]

I brought one up recently on the last page:

Drew Rosenhaus on Tua vs. Burrow

Last night on WSVN Sports Xtra south Florida TV, Rosenhaus was on as usual and was asked who he would pick first, Tua or Burrow. His answer- Burrow, easily. Feels that he is a special QB, special talent.

finheaven.com

That throw from Burrow was problematic. The officials actually bailed him out by ruling (incorrectly) that Moss was pushed out of bounds, and therefore had the ability to reestablish his feet inbounds in order to make a legal catch.

The ball essentially got there 0.30 seconds later than Tua Tagovailoa would've gotten it, based on a similar TD he threw on 4th & 2.

That was so much extra time that the receiver was able to fall out of bounds and then step back inbounds before the ball finally got there.

But let's consider the other side of it. Consider Tua's throw on 4th & 2. Joe Burrow doesn't complete that pass. Period. Not with his velocity. If the ball got there 0.34 seconds later then the Alabama receiver would've been out of bounds by the time it arrives, and that's assuming Burrow adjusted his aim to account for his own poor velocity. If not, then the ball would've been woefully behind the receiver, and picked off.

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

I think what separates Burrow, Tua, and Herbert to me (I like them all) is how they handle adverse situations. Borrow finds a way to make plays in pretty bad situations in terms of pass rush being all over him, and he doesn't allow himself to get "tagged" by defenders. He has great decision making under pressure and I love his accuracy. Tua has great accuracy too, but does take some shots from defenders. Herbert has a strong arm, and at 6'5 tends to throw the ball away before taking shots but those aren't all smart throws.
It's anyone's guess who the best pro will be out of this mix, but I like Rosen better than all 3 of them (Don't hate me). I'd take Borrow before the others so far... There's still games to be played though and it's close.

 

[ckparrothead]

Here's a similar throw that Joe Burrow cannot reproduce in the NFL unless he finds a lot more dry powder in his shoulder than he's currently showing.

 

[jim1]

Here's a similar throw that Joe Burrow cannot reproduce in the NFL unless he finds a lot more dry powder in his shoulder than he's currently showing.

Interesting- I've been wondering if Burrow can deliver more velocity at the next level if it's demanded of him- he seems to be very careful with his throws- but that's a big if.

 

[Rowdy1972]

I brought one up recently on the last page:

Drew Rosenhaus on Tua vs. Burrow

Last night on WSVN Sports Xtra south Florida TV, Rosenhaus was on as usual and was asked who he would pick first, Tua or Burrow. His answer- Burrow, easily. Feels that he is a special QB, special talent.

finheaven.com

That throw from Burrow was problematic. The officials actually bailed him out by ruling (incorrectly) that Moss was pushed out of bounds, and therefore had the ability to reestablish his feet inbounds in order to make a legal catch.

The ball essentially got there 0.30 seconds later than Tua Tagovailoa would've gotten it, based on a similar TD he threw on 4th & 2.

That was so much extra time that the receiver was able to fall out of bounds and then step back inbounds before the ball finally got there.

But let's consider the other side of it. Consider Tua's throw on 4th & 2. Joe Burrow doesn't complete that pass. Period. Not with his velocity. If the ball got there 0.34 seconds later then the Alabama receiver would've been out of bounds by the time it arrives, and that's assuming Burrow adjusted his aim to account for his own poor velocity. If not, then the ball would've been woefully behind the receiver, and picked off.

That throw by Tua was ridiculous. I didnt truly appreciate it when it happened live.

 

[EJay]

I don't know that there's a lot of crossover with Mayfield and Burrow people.

To clarify, I was meaning from the standpoint of non-draftniks being enamored by the numbers he posted and the couple of big wins OU posted that season. Similar to what Burrow is doing this season.

If Danny Wuerffel 1996 happened this season, there’d be fans wow’d by it and thinking he might be the guy.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

In the Alabama game it was glaring that Burrow is a smart guy whose confidence is growing all the time, to the point it has reached that prized athletic arrogance I mention occasionally. There is no question he is far beyond Jake Fromm in that category. Fromm is still too much a frantic type who tenses up at the wrong time and only sees the small window in front of him. I'm not sure he'll ever escape that tendency. It is the reason I question his upside and he has had trouble late in pivotal games, or when Georgia is simply less motivated than the opponent. Fromm cannot attain and maintain that swagger little grin like Burrow had so often against Alabama, the one where he's basically saying, "Oh really...you think that's going to trouble me, huh?"

In short, Burrow is an ideal college quarterback. All of his qualities scream that he could have reached this level long ago. He even has magnificent instincts on the read option, far superior to current Russell Wilson, for example. Wilson obviously is nearly a decade earlier but now he is giving the ball far too often instead of taking off. Wilson could have ended that game in regulation and earlier in overtime on Monday against the 49ers if he merely faked and scampered for a vital first down. I'm still astonished that Urban Meyer somehow preferred Little Game Barrett over a young Burrow. That LSU offense last season may not have allowed Burrow to this level. But everything Meyer did at Ohio State and previously was perfectly suited for Burrow. Imagine all the underneath crossing passes into galloping open space, followed by the deft downfield touch pass to a wide open flanker. I'm sure this haunts Urban Meyer more than we know.

We're talking NFL. That's the type of thing Slimm emphasizes frequently. That ideal college quarterback too often simply looked like an ordinary physical specimen against Alabama. I don't know how anyone could watch that game without coming away with that conclusion. Flat footed passes with nothing on them. Yes, the receiver was open and Burrow hit him perfectly. But now you need to project that guy to dropping back on 3rd and 10 against NFL defenses. I'd be scared. High pick scared, anyway. Simply too much likelihood he enters the NFL and becomes a high level backup type.

Unless his arm strength improves the vital 5-10%. That is always the wild card with physically underdeveloped guys like this. I've seen it go both ways. Matt Leonard desperately needed the arm upgrade exiting college and it never happened. With others it has happened. Brady's arm was never great in college, although perfectly fine. Now fast forward to that Super Bowl with the Perfect Season at stake. Brady scared the heck out of me on that desperate final drive when suddenly he's throwing one nearly 75 yards and almost connected with streaking Randy Moss to bail out the game.

Tough call. The game that gives me pause about relegating Burrow is that bowl game against UCF last season. He looked every bit the lethal same in that game as all this season. I wondered why nobody was talking about it. Burrow had three games above 11 YPA during 2018, to go along with the flurry from this season. Trevor Lawrence finally got aboard the 11+ train for the first time a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Rev Kev]

I think what separates Burrow, Tua, and Herbert to me (I like them all) is how they handle adverse situations. Borrow finds a way to make plays in pretty bad situations in terms of pass rush being all over him, and he doesn't allow himself to get "tagged" by defenders. He has great decision making under pressure and I love his accuracy. Tua has great accuracy too, but does take some shots from defenders. Herbert has a strong arm, and at 6'5 tends to throw the ball away before taking shots but those aren't all smart throws.
It's anyone's guess who the best pro will be out of this mix, but I like Rosen better than all 3 of them (Don't hate me). I'd take Borrow before the others so far... There's still games to be played though and it's close.

Wow so much more separates these QBs - and what has Rosen done to grab so much of your attention from Tua???