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Easy money ??

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KTOWNFINFAN

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Preseason football has always been one of the best ways to make money is sports. This week might have a near lock. Most teams only play their starters one or two series in the 1st quarter before subing in backups. With Moore and Devlin both hurt along with Moreno, Clay and Wallace, you will have our 4th and 5th string QBs playing half the 1st q, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of the game, with most of our playmakers not even dressing. As we speak bovada has the spread at only -3, it will go higher, but even at -4 or -5 it seems like a pretty safe bet.

Yeah yeah I know, you hate betting against your own team, but free money is free money.
 
Never actually thought of that. Too bad in this stupid state we aren't allowed to gamble lol
 
KTOWNFINFAN said:
Preseason football has always been one of the best ways to make money is sports. This week might have a near lock. Most teams only play their starters one or two series in the 1st quarter before subing in backups. With Moore and Devlin both hurt along with Moreno, Clay and Wallace, you will have our 4th and 5th string QBs playing half the 1st q, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of the game, with most of our playmakers not even dressing. As we speak bovada has the spread at only -3, it will go higher, but even at -4 or -5 it seems like a pretty safe bet.

Yeah yeah I know, you hate betting against your own team, but free money is free money.
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Everything you are saying is already factored into that line hence it may look to be lopsided or a "lock" but in reality its not. Now granted it may hit but usually when a game screams "easy money" as you say thats when its loses. This is why most people lose in betting because its hard to go against something that looks to be so easy even when they are telling themselves it could be a sucker bet, but the end result is that they will always resort back to taking the "sure thing" when its always completely opposite.
 
cleezy13 said:
Everything you are saying is already factored into that line hence it may look to be lopsided or a "lock" but in reality its not. Now granted it may hit but usually when a game screams "easy money" as you say thats when its loses. This is why most people lose in betting because its hard to go against something that looks to be so easy even when they are telling themselves it could be a sucker bet, but the end result is that they will always resort back to taking the "sure thing" when its always completely opposite.
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LOL, don't bet much huh?? The only thing a bookie factors in is how to balance his bets. A bookie doesn't make money because you lose, a bookie makes money off of getting his 10% off of the total of all the ballance bets. A line is based on the speculation of how he thinks the public will bet not off of who he thinks will win, or by how much. The line is designed just to make it possible for a bookie to balance both sides so he doesn't have to worry about losing. He gets his cut and moves on.
 
KTOWNFINFAN said:
LOL, don't bet much huh?? The only thing a bookie factors in is how to balance his bets. A bookie doesn't make money because you lose, a bookie makes money off of getting his 10% off of the total of all the ballance bets. A line is based on the speculation of how he thinks the public will bet not off of who he thinks will win, or by how much. The line is designed just to make it possible for a bookie to balance both sides so he doesn't have to worry about losing. He gets his cut and moves on.
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Haha everything is factored into the opening line from vegas then the wise guys start the movement and then public bets creating action and guys like you look at locks due to injuries etc combined with a low ass line and think its a lock when its not thats my point.

Of course the lines are created to offset the better team and to make it even (and Vegas is looking to spilt worst case senario to get the juice) but thats not what Im talking about Im talking about how your saying easy money because of all the factors you've mentioned and based off of that the line should have opened up around 4-5 not 2.5 (vegasinsider) hence your all over that even at 5 and if its gets to 5 everyone and their mother is on Atl meaning most likely you'll lose. BTW -3 is consider even because the -3 comes from having home field advantage, so the fact that I can get it at 2.5 with all the injuries and nobody playing etc is a sucker bet because that has already been factored in to the line and now seems like a lock being so low. Thats why you a typical bettor is all over it even at -5 calling it easy money case in point.
 
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Here's a list of assorted point spreads for this week. All are between a pick and 3 points because no one has a clue as to what's goi9ng to happen. Herm was asked this morning what he looked for in the first preseason game. He said assignment, alignment, and technique. Some guys are not going to know play calls in the huddle, and where they are supposed to line up. Rookies hear the crowd, proud of wearing an NFL jersey, and get lost.

He used one example of a DB who was supposed to line up at RCB but, was at left safety, and how he was yelling at him to get over there waving his arm. Then there are the 10 or 12 men on the field, and assorted other penalties. Best bet you can make is that it will be a sloppy game, and that established playmakers will not make the difference on who wins.

It's a coin toss but, worth a few bucks to make watching until the end interesting if you do not have interest in seeing guys on the third string and cuts playing against each other. JMO

Sounds like a job for vBookie.
 
KTOWNFINFAN said:
LOL, don't bet much huh?? The only thing a bookie factors in is how to balance his bets. A bookie doesn't make money because you lose, a bookie makes money off of getting his 10% off of the total of all the ballance bets. A line is based on the speculation of how he thinks the public will bet not off of who he thinks will win, or by how much. The line is designed just to make it possible for a bookie to balance both sides so he doesn't have to worry about losing. He gets his cut and moves on.
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EXACTLY. Lots of people don't get this.
 
cleezy13 said:
Everything you are saying is already factored into that line hence it may look to be lopsided or a "lock" but in reality its not. Now granted it may hit but usually when a game screams "easy money" as you say thats when its loses. This is why most people lose in betting because its hard to go against something that looks to be so easy even when they are telling themselves it could be a sucker bet, but the end result is that they will always resort back to taking the "sure thing" when its always completely opposite.
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Hit the nail right on the head.. No doubt whatsoever Vegas has already adjusted, not only our game, but every other game to take into account injuries and players not playing. Our line certainly reflects that

---------- Post added at 09:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 PM ----------
KTOWNFINFAN said:
LOL, don't bet much huh?? The only thing a bookie factors in is how to balance his bets. A bookie doesn't make money because you lose, a bookie makes money off of getting his 10% off of the total of all the ballance bets. A line is based on the speculation of how he thinks the public will bet not off of who he thinks will win, or by how much. The line is designed just to make it possible for a bookie to balance both sides so he doesn't have to worry about losing. He gets his cut and moves on.
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Not if it's a real bookie and takes the bets themselves like I used to.. Because you know what? In the end more people lose than win.
 
I`ve never bet on pre season games, but if I were to start, I`d probably focus on the head coaches and their tendencies.... some of them value PS wins more than others I`d imagine...
 
Guys, it's preseason game #1, and there is no analysis because no one has a clue on who will be playing past the first quarter. Do you honestly believe that Vegas is looking at teams 90 man roster to see who is better? Doesn't happen.
 
dolpns13 said:
Hit the nail right on the head.. No doubt whatsoever Vegas has already adjusted, not only our game, but every other game to take into account injuries and players not playing. Our line certainly reflects that

---------- Post added at 09:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 PM ----------


Not if it's a real bookie and takes the bets themselves like I used to.. Because you know what? In the end more people lose than win.
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LOL, right. Makes great sense. The only way that could be true is if you are counting a push as a loss.
 
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