Edge Rushers -- Modified Explosiveness Index (MEI) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Edge Rushers -- Modified Explosiveness Index (MEI)

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Awsi Dooger

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This is not my work. Full credit to a poster named Richter on another site. He is a Patriots fan who has developed a formula based on workout numbers to project the success of rush linebackers, defensive ends, and 5-technique defensive tackles. He doesn't release the formula but does post the results each year. I've been waiting for his thread to be posted for quite a while this spring. I got home from playing golf a half hour ago and saw that he posted it today. This is the same formula that rejected Dion Jordan two years ago while Jamie Collins received the highest grade ever.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=565640

As you'll note from his write up, Bud Dupree is #1 and nearly surpassed Collins' all time best number. Only three other players received numbers that placed them in the Elite category -- Owa Odighizuwa, Frank Clark and Vic Beasley.

Dante Fowler has a low rating and Shane Ray is very low. The author's summary of Ray is fairly devastating: "I don't know what's happened to Missouri's talent in recent years. They used to put out some of my favorite prospects, with several notable athletes that went on to NFL success, but lately, they've been churning out duds on the edge. All I know is, I would not spend a draft pick on Shane Ray."
 
I'm curious to know of his formula.Hes been off a little but pretty spot on. On a lot of guys I.e Dion Jordan lol.
 
I loved Jamie Collins in the Draft.

I still do not know how he lasted as long as he did, with his size, speed and skills.
 
This will be an interesting year for this guy. He has a history apparently of predicting talent based on measurables and has a complete garbage player's (Dupree) production representing the validity of it. Maybe he needs to recrunch the numbers for Dupree.
 
jetsh8r said:
This will be an interesting year for this guy. He has a history apparently of predicting talent based on measurables and has a complete garbage player's (Dupree) production representing the validity of it. Maybe he needs to recrunch the numbers for Dupree.
Click to expand...

That reminds me of every bit of flawed thinking I've witnessed in Las Vegas. Guys subjectively try to win every game and therefore struggle to budge 40 or 45%. Second guessing and overreaction galore. When you apply numbers like this you don't care about the misses. No kidding there will be misses. The numbers give you an edge on the crowd. It tilts the scale in your favor.

The Bar Stool crowd will desperately hope for Dupree to flunk, so they can rush in here, or any similar thread, and mock the concepts. Meanwhile the successes will outnumber the failures, and the metrics will only improve. This is the mere infancy. Better get used to it.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
That reminds me of every bit of flawed thinking I've witnessed in Las Vegas. Guys subjectively try to win every game and therefore struggle to budge 40 or 45%. Second guessing and overreaction galore. When you apply numbers like this you don't care about the misses. No kidding there will be misses. The numbers give you an edge on the crowd. It tilts the scale in your favor.

The Bar Stool crowd will desperately hope for Dupree to flunk, so they can rush in here, or any similar thread, and mock the concepts. Meanwhile the successes will outnumber the failures, and the metrics will only improve. This is the mere infancy. Better get used to it.
Click to expand...

My point wasnt that there are not predictors in the metrics, Im saying that if the numbers add up to Dupree being a solid player then I think he is overlooking something in his algorithm. If Dupree is successful, then I will eat my words and believe this guy has it right.
 
The problem is taking one of these tools as the sole predictor of success. There is no substitute for experienced sound human judgment. These tools can help clarify what you see on the field and solidify opinion.
 
Though I'm not one to rely solely on the numbers when human factor affects the equation it's an interesting read. I'd like to revisit this thread in a couple of years to see how close it is.
 
The last Five years worth of data are out there, he seems to be the same as anybody else.
 
There are lots of great workout warriors who never amount too much in the NFL. Until they can measure a guy's heart, effort and football knowledge, I take most of these metrics with a grain of salt. This is why a guy like Zach Thomas or Tom Brady get taken in the fifth round, and prove that measuring talent is not an exact science.
 
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