ESPN has the Miami Dolphins picking #3 overall in next years draft... | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

ESPN has the Miami Dolphins picking #3 overall in next years draft...

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Phinatic8u said:
I dont know why people are up in arms about Miami possbly being worse.

Ryan Firzpatrick is still our qb and until otherwise spoken he sucks and is due for a Fitztragic yesr.
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Fitztragic year = another top 10 pick and it "wouldn't be the front offices fault" in the public eye because the plan was to get Tua ready.

Win. Win.
 
NBP81 said:
You break even if the Fins win the div 2.1% of the time... Might not be that bad of a bet. I doubt @Awsi Dooger is into Futures because of limits and astronomical holds but I'd like to hear what he has to say about this. Im pretty certain alot of mistakes are being made with multiway odds and the books account for it by cranking up the hold but Im sure there are always a couple good bets to be made...
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45/1 can't be right. I haven't looked at anything. I'm not sure anything is out. But the 45/1 sounds like a made up number. It wouldn't be anything close to that. More like 10/1 or less, if I had to guess. It wouldn't be 45/1 even if Brady were in his prime.

Futures odds are now extremely conservative. The books get burned on a long shot in one of the major sports and that causes them to slice everything across the board. I don't know how many times the sports book manager would say, "Don't make anything too high. There is no need. They'll take it anyway."

That is indeed the case. The offseason is full of sucker money, the tourists coming to town with lists of future wagers to make for Uncle Ted back home.

The 6 does sound close. I was thinking 5.5 or 6. Normally they like to set it on a half number so there aren't pushes. So it will probably be 5.5 with juice on the over or 6.5 with juice on the under.

That number will not be heavily swayed by last season. Dolphin fans are now inclined to think well we won 5 games in a tank season so now there's no reason it can't be 7 or 8 or higher. The sportsbooks will look at the low power rating and a team that won 5 games when the season win over/under was 4.5.

No big deal.

BTW, I did bet futures odds semi-frequently when I was in Las Vegas full time. But I would always do it during the season itself, not prior to the season. There were so many independent books in those days. Dozens of them. Some joints would get stuck on a favorable number. Then we'd keep an eye on it as the season progressed. A typical tactic was to wait for a pivotal game middle to late in the season and then wager on the favorable futures odds during the game itself but once the team was in a commanding position late in the game. The example I remember most was Denver Broncos in 1998. They already were stamping themselves as superior to 1997 when they won the title. In midseason they had a pivotal meeting with Jacksonville. Harrah's had the best number in town for Denver to win both the AFC and the Super Bowl. They left their futures odds open during the games, unlike some books. I hovered around the counter as Denver took command over the Jaguars in a high scoring game. Once it was all but clinched I walked up there and bet 3 dimes to win the AFC and another 3 dimes to win the Super Bowl. Their sports book manager Howard always liked me because one time I returned $100 that I was mistakenly overpaid by the cashier. It was amazing how much benefit that $100 had over the years.

Anyway, Howard and the female supervisor Dana went over to look at the computer, to see where they stood on the Broncos. Frankly I thought they would give me a partial amount. That book did not have high limits. It almost seemed like Howard was still making up his mind as he walked back to the counter. Then he said, "Okay, we'll take it."

That was great. It wasn't high odds, something like 7/2 and 7/1. But very favorable and obviously both cashed. I did hedge back some in the AFC title game and Super Bowl.

Those were my best years in that town...'95 through '98. Basic reasons: It was still a combination of old time bookmakers running many of the joints, almost every casino had its own set of numbers (pre corporate mergers), and the IRS changes had not been made regarding tracking anything above 10 dimes bet in one joint over 24 hours regardless if it was cash or chips or winning tickets. They were still tracking cash only toward the 10 dimes. It was incredibly favorable to play middles and scalps for huge money simply by making all the bets in chips or redeemed winning tickets. Two trusted friends and I pooled resources and were using walkie talkies then cell phones to gather up great numbers and play both ways. It was a math game more than picking winners. Once that IRS rule changed circa 2001 or 2002 the middling/scalping aspect was not nearly as profitable anymore.

Many of my friends quickly left town and I eventually did a half dozen years later. I have no idea how the newcomers do it these days with so much normalcy stacked against them.
 
The dolphins openned two months ago at 18-1 to win the AFC east and it's now down to 8-1.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
45/1 can't be right. I haven't looked at anything. I'm not sure anything is out. But the 45/1 sounds like a made up number. It wouldn't be anything close to that. More like 10/1 or less, if I had to guess. It wouldn't be 45/1 even if Brady were in his prime.

Futures odds are now extremely conservative. The books get burned on a long shot in one of the major sports and that causes them to slice everything across the board. I don't know how many times the sports book manager would say, "Don't make anything too high. There is no need. They'll take it anyway."

That is indeed the case. The offseason is full of sucker money, the tourists coming to town with lists of future wagers to make for Uncle Ted back home.

The 6 does sound close. I was thinking 5.5 or 6. Normally they like to set it on a half number so there aren't pushes. So it will probably be 5.5 with juice on the over or 6.5 with juice on the under.

That number will not be heavily swayed by last season. Dolphin fans are now inclined to think well we won 5 games in a tank season so now there's no reason it can't be 7 or 8 or higher. The sportsbooks will look at the low power rating and a team that won 5 games when the season win over/under was 4.5.

No big deal.

BTW, I did bet futures odds semi-frequently when I was in Las Vegas full time. But I would always do it during the season itself, not prior to the season. There were so many independent books in those days. Dozens of them. Some joints would get stuck on a favorable number. Then we'd keep an eye on it as the season progressed. A typical tactic was to wait for a pivotal game middle to late in the season and then wager on the favorable futures odds during the game itself but once the team was in a commanding position late in the game. The example I remember most was Denver Broncos in 1998. They already were stamping themselves as superior to 1997 when they won the title. In midseason they had a pivotal meeting with Jacksonville. Harrah's had the best number in town for Denver to win both the AFC and the Super Bowl. They left their futures odds open during the games, unlike some books. I hovered around the counter as Denver took command over the Jaguars in a high scoring game. Once it was all but clinched I walked up there and bet 3 dimes to win the AFC and another 3 dimes to win the Super Bowl. Their sports book manager Howard always liked me because one time I returned $100 that I was mistakenly overpaid by the cashier. It was amazing how much benefit that $100 had over the years.

Anyway, Howard and the female supervisor Dana went over to look at the computer, to see where they stood on the Broncos. Frankly I thought they would give me a partial amount. That book did not have high limits. It almost seemed like Howard was still making up his mind as he walked back to the counter. Then he said, "Okay, we'll take it."

That was great. It wasn't high odds, something like 7/2 and 7/1. But very favorable and obviously both cashed. I did hedge back some in the AFC title game and Super Bowl.

Those were my best years in that town...'95 through '98. Basic reasons: It was still a combination of old time bookmakers running many of the joints, almost every casino had its own set of numbers (pre corporate mergers), and the IRS changes had not been made regarding tracking anything above 10 dimes bet in one joint over 24 hours regardless if it was cash or chips or winning tickets. They were still tracking cash only toward the 10 dimes. It was incredibly favorable to play middles and scalps for huge money simply by making all the bets in chips or redeemed winning tickets. Two trusted friends and I pooled resources and were using walkie talkies then cell phones to gather up great numbers and play both ways. It was a math game more than picking winners. Once that IRS rule changed circa 2001 or 2002 the middling/scalping aspect was not nearly as profitable anymore.

Many of my friends quickly left town and I eventually did a half dozen years later. I have no idea how the newcomers do it these days with so much normalcy stacked against them.
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Caesars Entertainment Corporation released its initial win totals, division, playoff and Super Bowl odds for the 2020 season Thursday and the sportsbook pegs Miami as a 45-1 long shot to win the division with its win total over-under set at six. It’s still a low total, but a step up from last season, when the Dolphins’ win total was set at 4 1/2. Miami hit the over with five wins by upsetting the Patriots 27-24 in the season finale.
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This is where I read it. The number seems way off to me, too, but I don't know much about gambling.

 
-MiamiSoul said:
Wow. That's harsh. We might not be in the AFC championship game but I think we are certainly improved over next season. ESPN are Dolphins haters......
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Hope that is the Texan's pick....
 
Vegas had the Dolphins with the lowest over/under at 5.5

In the entire League!

I do not get it, they won 5 last year and added a bunch of upgrade FA's and a large rookie group and will surely contribute.

I know the schedule is tough, but ZERO improvement after the off season they had?
 
I just don’t see us picking top 10 with our pick really, much less at 3.
 
It would be kinda nice to get another premier draft pick to build around. Sewell from Oregon, Ja’marr Chase or a top defender like Micah Parsons or Rousseau. Or roster is much improved but we still don’t have a lot of All pro caliber players
 
Swollcolb said:
It would be kinda nice to get another premier draft pick to build around. Sewell from Oregon, Ja’marr Chase or a top defender like Micah Parsons or Rousseau. Or roster is much improved but we still don’t have a lot of All pro caliber players
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Not a lot of all pro players? Not many teams carry multiple all pro players.
Now if your only talking about going to pro bowl then that's simply saved for players on teams performing well that year or simply fan favorites.
 
Swollcolb said:
It would be kinda nice to get another premier draft pick to build around. Sewell from Oregon, Ja’marr Chase or a top defender like Micah Parsons or Rousseau. Or roster is much improved but we still don’t have a lot of All pro caliber players
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4-5 All Pro players on a team is a LOT
 
I think the ESPN prediction is a bit off. With a lesser roster Flores somehow managed 5 wins. Now that the roster is filled with proven vets, who know the system, I can't see many reasons the Dolphins can't improve by 2-3 games over 2019? Fitzpatrick would have to really stink it up for Miami to blow up. Not that it's out of the question due to how hot and cold and how inconsistent from season to season he's been in the past.

I think the expected defensive improvement will help Miami improve on the 5 win total of 2019, Alone!!! I truly expect a 7-8 win season in 2020. Especially if Fitzpatrick plays well.
 
SCOTTY said:
Not a lot of all pro players? Not many teams carry multiple all pro players.
Now if your only talking about going to pro bowl then that's simply saved for players on teams performing well that year or simply fan favorites.
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I meant pro bowl but I knew if I said that I’d get blasted for saying that because its a popularity contest. But I’m referring to those caliber of players (pro bowl, all pro, PFF top players) whatever metric you prefer for top level impact players.
 
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