ESPN's Scouts Take: Jets at Dolphins (Here's a surprise!)

[nando03]

Hey everyone, Scouts Inc. usually does their weekly keys to the game a few days before Sunday and I just got done reading part of it. I usually do this every week but last year I slacked off because of our dismal showings.

Well it's week 1 and here we go again. Please note: I will provide a link to the article but it's a part of ESPN's Insider package and you will not be able to see it if you haven't paid for the subscription. I can't post the whole article here on Finheaven, but I will post some parts of it in quotes below.

Please enjoy and feel free to discuss what they have to say.

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=3567704
(for those with Insider subscription)

Scouts Inc. Position Advantage
QB RB REC OL DL LB DB ST Coaching EDGE

This is the positional breakdown above. As you can see Scouts Inc feels we have an advantage at RB, DL, LB, ST. However they give us the edge at the end which is the first pleasant surprise I saw when reading the article.

When Miami has the ball

Dolphins offensive coordinator Dan Henning will take a run-first approach by using RB Ricky Williams as his primary weapon on off-tackle and downhill running plays behind four-year veteran RT Vernon Carey and high-profile rookie LT Jake Long. Williams has shown flashes of his previous self toting the ball, but doesn't have great speed to press the edge. Versatile FB Boomer Grigsby is an effective lead blocker on perimeter plays, but is best attacking linebackers between the tackles. But, the Jets' defense appears it will be somewhat improved at stopping the run due to the addition of powerful DT Kris Jenkins anchoring the middle of their 3-4 front.
Veteran signal caller Chad Pennington is very smart and will try and attack CB Justin Miller with combination routes because Miller is somewhat-undisciplined leveraging the ball. Pennington has done a great job of throwing high-percentage passes and getting the ball to WR Ted Ginn Jr. on shallow crossing patterns, intermediate perimeter routes plays where he can stretch the deep zones. He will also throw to TE Anthony Fasano on seam and option routes. More importantly, the Dolphins will try to keep the ball out of the middle of the field and away from opportunistic FS Kerry Rhodes by utilizing a short passing attack pressuring OLBs Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas.

Below you will see what they have as their "Key Matchup". We've talked a bunch here on Finheave about Jake Long's shortcomings when it comes to Pass Blocking against quick DE's and OLB's.

Matchup To Watch
New York outside linebacker Calvin Pace vs. Miami left tackle Jake Long


Pace is an excellent addition to the Jets' defense and he gives them great speed and quickness off the edge. He has an outstanding first step to gain leverage on his opponents, while using extremely low pad level to make it tough to get initial contact as a blocker. Pace uses a variety of moves and counters, but is primarily a speed rusher with a quick spin move to counter inside when offensive tackles overplay the high rush. Long was the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft and most experts believe his strong suit is his run blocking. He has a powerful initial jolt when he can engage early in the play, but the crafty Pace will be a tough test for him. Long is a good athlete, but doesn't appear to have typical left tackle quickness and recovery agility. The faster Long can get his mitts on Pace, the better, because trying to match Pace's speed and agility will be tough. Pennington isn't very elusive and watching his blind side is key for Long. Henning will keep an eye on this matchup and either slide protection or chip with a back and or tight end, if it appears to be a problem

After this match-up they go in and talk about the each teams key to success. (Please keep in mind I have summarized each key.)

According to Scouts Inc., the Jets keys to success are the following:

1. A balanced offensive attack: Ultimately they want to keep Paul Pasqualoni guessing.
2. Protect Favre: With their OL additions they need to be able to Protect Farve so he can pick us apart.
3. Stop the Run: Since Chad P. is new to our team and with his avg. arm strength, if they can stop our potent Run Off. they should be able to stop our Offense.

Dolphins Keys:

1. Establish the Run: As long as we are able to establish the run and keep the Jets LB's honest, Chad will be able to precisely put passes where they need to be and our Offense will move the ball effectively.
2. Get the ball to Ted Ginn: Get the ball to him. Kind of like feed the studs. He creates a speed mismatch everywhere on the field and if he gets double covered Chad P will exploit their other weeknesses.
3. Pressure Favre: Our 3-4 scheme will have to get pressure on Favre and cause disruption in their passing game. He tends to turn the ball over when pressured.

Below is Scouts Inc's Edge:

Scouts Inc. Edge

Both clubs are evenly matched in several areas and both quarterbacks are trying to learn new systems in a short amount of time. Plus, the Jets and Dolphins have improved their offensive and defensive lines, but Miami should be able to move the ball better on the ground and establish a physical presence in the trenches. The edge in coaching goes to Mangini, but it appears the Dolphins have a different mindset under Sparano. The special teams appear to also be very closely matched, but Ginn could be the difference for the Dolphins and they should win a close contest in Sparano's head-coaching debut.


Prediction
Miami Dolphins 23

New York Jets 21

Hope you enjoyed and please feel free to leave feedback and opinions.

I think they touched on the right subjects and are almost spot on with their analysis on what we need to do in order to win this game. There is obviously more to this article but I explained that up top.

 

[RnR_Express3423]

Thanks man. Good read

 

[Dolfan5000]

I like the way he broke that down. We don't have a bunch of premiere pass rushers now but I believe Pasqualoni will find ways to create pressure with this 3-4 scheme. If we can get after Favre and keep them guessing he will turn the ball over. :)

 

[Canadianfishfan]

Excellent write up. Thanks man.. can you also post the 'when Jets have the ball?'

 

[DcRy82]

Favre has a lot of NFL records.. Most importantly, the record for the most interceptions.. i'm expecting some turnovers. he doesnt have the studs he had in green bay. Coles, their #1 would be the #3 WR in Green Bay. And Grant is better then Jones.

 

[Dolfan5000]

Favre has a lot of NFL records.. Most importantly, the record for the most interceptions.. i'm expecting some turnovers. he doesnt have the studs he had in green bay. Coles, their #1 would be the #3 WR in Green Bay. And Grant is better then Jones.

I think you're not giving enough credit to Coles. He has more TDs against us than he has against any team in the league.

 

[nosleep]

"but doesn't have great speed to press the edge."


uhhhh are they talking about the same Ricky Williams? lawl

 

[Phinsfan210]

Thanks alot man. I disagree with what they said about Ricky Williams though.

 

[Dolfan5000]

"but doesn't have great speed to press the edge."


uhhhh are they talking about the same Ricky Williams? lawl

Haha yeah I saw that too and I was like are they talking about the right Ricky Williams?

 

[Canadianfishfan]

I think you're not giving enough credit to Coles. He has more TDs against us than he has against any team in the league.

I agree with you as I believe Coles isn't mearly as bad as the previous poster makes him out to be.

That being said, we now have the QB who threw those TDs. A very accurate passer. Something Brett is not. Brett forces balls into spaces by sheer power of his throws. Clearly he has shown over the years to throw INTs when pressured. I think we're going to get some pressure. I like our young kids in Merling and Langford. The jets may have a better OL but I like how we match up with them and our front 7.

There are so many new faces and subplots to this game. And thats just on the Miami side of the ball. I like moving Joey back to his natural position, but then I am worried about Roth dropping into coverage. I expect him to be exposed by Farve.

As far as Coles goes, Farve is a player who likes to loft it up there and expects his receiver to go get it. I believe with better safety play with Bell back there we may have a shot.

We'll pound the ball with R&R until the Jets D gets lazy then we'll test Ginn deep. Should be interesting. I am always CRAZY excited for opening season. But this season is like no other.

 

[shula_guy]

I think this game is a pick um. It is fairly evenly matched. I think Miami's best attack is through the air if the Jets play man to man. Now if they play us as a zone I agree you run the ball right at them. Make their D work its butt off in the coverages. Keep them guys moving alot. I want to see the Jets huffing and puffing on their way back into the locker room at the half.

I think on the defensive side of the ball, we want to come at Favre hard. I would use alot of blitz packages and keep a serious pass rush on him all day. Make him either throw picks or call run plays. Either way I think transulates into a win for us.


JMO!

 

[nando03]

Excellent write up. Thanks man.. can you also post the 'when Jets have the ball?'

I will definitely post the "When the Jets have the ball" part of it for you. It will unfortunately have to wait until I get back to a computer as this post is coming from my cell phone and I don't have the article up or in hand.

 

[shula_guy]

I will definitely post the "When the Jets have the ball" part of it for you. It will unfortunately have to wait until I get back to a computer as this post is coming from my cell phone and I don't have the article up or in hand.

you must have a nice cell phone! :up:

 

[CedarPhin]

Nice breakdown. Thanks for the read.

 

[PENNDOLPHAN]

Thanks man, great read.