TheRevoltingBlob
Club Member
I've posted my thoughts on this topic multiple times, but after seeing the number of people that want us to draft Najee Harris at 18, I think it is important to have this discussion. I (like most everyone here) am desperate to get Tua some weapons. But I question the value that comes with drafting a RB in the 1st, and I am honestly having trouble justifying taking one before the late 2nd. I grew up playing RB and all my favorite players were RB's. So it brings me no joy to belittle the importance of the position. But with that said, here are my reasons...
1) It is a passing league
This statement comes as a surprise to no one and I don't think I am breaking any news here. But I think many are unaware about the extreme discrepancy between the impact an efficient passing game vs rushing game has on winning.
The info listed comes from an analysis of data between the 2003 and 2012 seasons, but this is right around when the illegal contact rules were changed to favor the pass game, so I assume the findings are just as relevant today. The first chart compares the passing and rushing efficiency of playoff teams during this timeframe...
The next image is a comparison of how pass and rush efficiency correlated with wins over that time...
The takeaway from this study is explained here...
"Rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly [...] Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL [...] In college football, rush efficiency correlates more strongly with wins than in the NFL. Teams like Alabama, Stanford and Wisconsin have won with a power running game and a physical front seven on defense. The insignificance of running the ball is unique to the NFL."
Source: The Power Rank
This is pretty damning regarding exactly how important the RB position is. And I know to always take PFF with a huge grain of salt, but their analysis of which RB grades best correlated with wins sheds further light on the value of the position and which attributes we should actually be looking for. More specifically, those which help the passing game...
"A recent study from Pro Football Focus found that the four RB measurements that best predict team wins in the following year are PFF pass-blocking grade, pass blocking efficiency, yards per receiving route run, and PFF receiving grade. That’s right: RBs only help their teams win to the extent that they matter in the passing game. Premium draft picks should be spent on what matters: improving a team’s passing game or pass defense."
2) High Bust Rates Among First Round RBs
A study by Arrowhead in 2015 analyzed which positions in the first round had the highest bust rate. They can be difficult to evaluate since their production is so dependent on the offensive line they are behind in college. Here are the success rates, meaning how likely they are to be dependable starters, among all offensive positions. RB's finished only slightly behind WR's.
However, to be fair, it did mention that stud RB's are most likely to be found in the 1st round. But I'm sure this is true for most positions. They did highly emphasize the bust rate, and pointed toward the 4th round to be the safest spot to get value for your selection (they did use the words "if you are looking for depth" though). The 4th round also happened to be where the most RB's were taken outside of the 7th.
The 1st round success rates are given below...
OL (83%) TE (67%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%)
There was also another study that looked at the RB's drafted in the top 20 between 2004 and 2017 that compared their YPC to the league average. The 17 first round RB's had a 4.2 YPC average, which was identical to the league average over that time frame.
For comparison Myles Gaskin (a 7th round pick), put up 4.1 YPC a behind a very poor run blocking line. Salvon Ahmen (undrafted) averaged 4.3, but did not contribute nearly as much in the pass game. The league average was 4.4 YPC. If Gaskin had played all 16 games, he was on pace for 934 yards rushing and 621 yards receiving. I don't say this to imply he should be our starting back next year, only to give added context.
Source: Arrowhead
3) Short Shelf Life
(Edit: This is a limited study of the only 8 RB's that were able to meet the 2,000 carry threshold. It does represent the average starting RB)
A study by Numberfire in 2015 looked at the longevity of RB's and found that the average starting RB almost completely fell off at the 6 year mark, or what they referred to as the "1,800 Carry Cliff." Here are two charts. The first shows the RB's average career yards and the second shows the NEP (Net Expected Production). NEP is a stat that attempts to separate a RB's YPC from their offensive line play. Here are the charts...
You can see that RB's are done on average by year 6. The dip in year 3 is likely due to the fact that this had a small sample size because it only included the 8 RB's that were able to reach 2,000 carries over that span. But this also means these were among the leagues most prolific rushers, so that should also imply that getting a solid 6 seasons from your RB is actually very optimistic IMO.
Source: NumberFire
Before the 2020 season started I was having a discussion simply explaining that RB is a young man's game. I took NFL.com's preseason RB ranking list and put their years played next to their names. Here were the results (remember, the years played is from before this season)
1. Christian McCaffrey (3)
3. Nick Chubb (2)
4. Ezekiel Elliot (4)
5. Alvin Kamara (3)
6. Joe Mixon (3)
6. Saquan Barkley (2)
7. Derrick Henry (4)
8. Dalvin Cook (3)
9. Josh Jacob's (1)
10. Aaron Jones (3)
Of the eight players to go over 1,000 yard, Derrick Henry was the only guy not still on his rookie contract (and he was a backup his first 2 years. Those league leading carries will catch up to him). To be fair, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot would have made it if they had played all 16 games. Though plenty of other guys still on rookie contracts would have done better (Ronald Jones, Kamara, Miles Sanders) if we are just going to ignore injuries. But that brings me to my next topic.
4) Injuries
This chart represents the number of players that went on IR from 2007-2009 from each positional group. The most likely time to get injured is from being tackled, so this is no surprise to anyone. So not only do RB's have short careers, but they are by far the most likely to miss games during their short careers.
5) Contract Issues
The fact that RB's cannot be relied on to produce beyond their rookie contracts adds an additional problem. Congrats you have hit on a stud RB and now they want their big contract extension. Zeke was considered an elite star last season, but this year he looked like he began his drop off and averaged 4 YPC. That is how quickly these guys can drop off.
This season Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry all received their large extensions. They are all elite as of now, but take one look at that age list from above and start asking yourself how long until they fall of the top of that chart. Guys like Devonta Freeman, Le'veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson recieved their big extensions and were on top of the world. Until they suddenly weren't.
All three of these guys need to last 2 more years at this grueling position before their teams even have an option to take the roughly 6.5 million dollar cap hit and cut them. They have to still be on the team at 29 in order to make it through all the guarenteed money on their contracts. And I definitely don't see any current 29 year old RB's worth keeping around for 15 million.
And a lot of my negative attitude toward these contracts does not simply stem from longevity. It is that the primary skill they provide, rushing efficiency, has been shown to not contribute enough to winning for me to consider these good investments (Kamara's dynamic receiving ability does set him apart in this respect).
RB's come out of college more NFL ready than other positions. There is a good chance you are getting their best years during that rookie contract. That already looks like the case with Zeke, which makes these extensions very risky to me. The first step to handing out one of these big extensions to a declining asset is to have already invested high draft capital in them. This leaves you compelled to not let them go. I much prefer the draft them and dump them (if necesssary) approach after the rookie contract is up. But that is much easier to do if you didn't make a heavy initial investment
Ending Thoughts
RB's were one of backbones of the team when I was growing up. But the rule changes in 2004 that made passing so much more efficient has had a significant impact on how we should value the position moving forward.
The bottom line is that I do not think it is a good idea to use heavy draft capital RB's because rushing efficiency does not significantly impact winning enough, 1st round RB's have a high bust rate, they have short shelf lives and injury issues, and their post rookie contract extensions are often problematic due to the issues I just mentioned. Just keep this in mind when you are clamoring for Najee Harris in round 1. There are other RB's like Kenny Gainwell, Javonte Williams, and more, who could get the job done just fine.
Let me know what you think. If you disagree, I invite you to convince me I'm wrong. I'm open to criticism.
1) It is a passing league
This statement comes as a surprise to no one and I don't think I am breaking any news here. But I think many are unaware about the extreme discrepancy between the impact an efficient passing game vs rushing game has on winning.
The info listed comes from an analysis of data between the 2003 and 2012 seasons, but this is right around when the illegal contact rules were changed to favor the pass game, so I assume the findings are just as relevant today. The first chart compares the passing and rushing efficiency of playoff teams during this timeframe...
The next image is a comparison of how pass and rush efficiency correlated with wins over that time...
The takeaway from this study is explained here...
"Rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly [...] Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL [...] In college football, rush efficiency correlates more strongly with wins than in the NFL. Teams like Alabama, Stanford and Wisconsin have won with a power running game and a physical front seven on defense. The insignificance of running the ball is unique to the NFL."
Source: The Power Rank
This is pretty damning regarding exactly how important the RB position is. And I know to always take PFF with a huge grain of salt, but their analysis of which RB grades best correlated with wins sheds further light on the value of the position and which attributes we should actually be looking for. More specifically, those which help the passing game...
"A recent study from Pro Football Focus found that the four RB measurements that best predict team wins in the following year are PFF pass-blocking grade, pass blocking efficiency, yards per receiving route run, and PFF receiving grade. That’s right: RBs only help their teams win to the extent that they matter in the passing game. Premium draft picks should be spent on what matters: improving a team’s passing game or pass defense."
2) High Bust Rates Among First Round RBs
A study by Arrowhead in 2015 analyzed which positions in the first round had the highest bust rate. They can be difficult to evaluate since their production is so dependent on the offensive line they are behind in college. Here are the success rates, meaning how likely they are to be dependable starters, among all offensive positions. RB's finished only slightly behind WR's.
However, to be fair, it did mention that stud RB's are most likely to be found in the 1st round. But I'm sure this is true for most positions. They did highly emphasize the bust rate, and pointed toward the 4th round to be the safest spot to get value for your selection (they did use the words "if you are looking for depth" though). The 4th round also happened to be where the most RB's were taken outside of the 7th.
The 1st round success rates are given below...
OL (83%) TE (67%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%)
There was also another study that looked at the RB's drafted in the top 20 between 2004 and 2017 that compared their YPC to the league average. The 17 first round RB's had a 4.2 YPC average, which was identical to the league average over that time frame.
For comparison Myles Gaskin (a 7th round pick), put up 4.1 YPC a behind a very poor run blocking line. Salvon Ahmen (undrafted) averaged 4.3, but did not contribute nearly as much in the pass game. The league average was 4.4 YPC. If Gaskin had played all 16 games, he was on pace for 934 yards rushing and 621 yards receiving. I don't say this to imply he should be our starting back next year, only to give added context.
Source: Arrowhead
3) Short Shelf Life
(Edit: This is a limited study of the only 8 RB's that were able to meet the 2,000 carry threshold. It does represent the average starting RB)
A study by Numberfire in 2015 looked at the longevity of RB's and found that the average starting RB almost completely fell off at the 6 year mark, or what they referred to as the "1,800 Carry Cliff." Here are two charts. The first shows the RB's average career yards and the second shows the NEP (Net Expected Production). NEP is a stat that attempts to separate a RB's YPC from their offensive line play. Here are the charts...
You can see that RB's are done on average by year 6. The dip in year 3 is likely due to the fact that this had a small sample size because it only included the 8 RB's that were able to reach 2,000 carries over that span. But this also means these were among the leagues most prolific rushers, so that should also imply that getting a solid 6 seasons from your RB is actually very optimistic IMO.
Source: NumberFire
Before the 2020 season started I was having a discussion simply explaining that RB is a young man's game. I took NFL.com's preseason RB ranking list and put their years played next to their names. Here were the results (remember, the years played is from before this season)
1. Christian McCaffrey (3)
3. Nick Chubb (2)
4. Ezekiel Elliot (4)
5. Alvin Kamara (3)
6. Joe Mixon (3)
6. Saquan Barkley (2)
7. Derrick Henry (4)
8. Dalvin Cook (3)
9. Josh Jacob's (1)
10. Aaron Jones (3)
Of the eight players to go over 1,000 yard, Derrick Henry was the only guy not still on his rookie contract (and he was a backup his first 2 years. Those league leading carries will catch up to him). To be fair, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot would have made it if they had played all 16 games. Though plenty of other guys still on rookie contracts would have done better (Ronald Jones, Kamara, Miles Sanders) if we are just going to ignore injuries. But that brings me to my next topic.
4) Injuries
This chart represents the number of players that went on IR from 2007-2009 from each positional group. The most likely time to get injured is from being tackled, so this is no surprise to anyone. So not only do RB's have short careers, but they are by far the most likely to miss games during their short careers.
5) Contract Issues
The fact that RB's cannot be relied on to produce beyond their rookie contracts adds an additional problem. Congrats you have hit on a stud RB and now they want their big contract extension. Zeke was considered an elite star last season, but this year he looked like he began his drop off and averaged 4 YPC. That is how quickly these guys can drop off.
This season Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry all received their large extensions. They are all elite as of now, but take one look at that age list from above and start asking yourself how long until they fall of the top of that chart. Guys like Devonta Freeman, Le'veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson recieved their big extensions and were on top of the world. Until they suddenly weren't.
All three of these guys need to last 2 more years at this grueling position before their teams even have an option to take the roughly 6.5 million dollar cap hit and cut them. They have to still be on the team at 29 in order to make it through all the guarenteed money on their contracts. And I definitely don't see any current 29 year old RB's worth keeping around for 15 million.
And a lot of my negative attitude toward these contracts does not simply stem from longevity. It is that the primary skill they provide, rushing efficiency, has been shown to not contribute enough to winning for me to consider these good investments (Kamara's dynamic receiving ability does set him apart in this respect).
RB's come out of college more NFL ready than other positions. There is a good chance you are getting their best years during that rookie contract. That already looks like the case with Zeke, which makes these extensions very risky to me. The first step to handing out one of these big extensions to a declining asset is to have already invested high draft capital in them. This leaves you compelled to not let them go. I much prefer the draft them and dump them (if necesssary) approach after the rookie contract is up. But that is much easier to do if you didn't make a heavy initial investment
Ending Thoughts
RB's were one of backbones of the team when I was growing up. But the rule changes in 2004 that made passing so much more efficient has had a significant impact on how we should value the position moving forward.
The bottom line is that I do not think it is a good idea to use heavy draft capital RB's because rushing efficiency does not significantly impact winning enough, 1st round RB's have a high bust rate, they have short shelf lives and injury issues, and their post rookie contract extensions are often problematic due to the issues I just mentioned. Just keep this in mind when you are clamoring for Najee Harris in round 1. There are other RB's like Kenny Gainwell, Javonte Williams, and more, who could get the job done just fine.
Let me know what you think. If you disagree, I invite you to convince me I'm wrong. I'm open to criticism.
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