Miami should have some decent choices in the off season at the QB position without getting locked into a big contract at QB.
It will be a buyers market. The usual suspects are committed to the QBs that got drafted this year...Browns, Bills, Jets, Cards, Ravens aren't going to be drafting a QB early or spending $$$ for one.
The only teams I can see being in the market for a QB willing to spend a 1st round pick or spend $ for a QB...Jags for sure, Giants depending on Manning who has been playing well of late, Bucs depending on whether they've had enough of Winston, Broncos perhaps but not sure if Keenum's contract locks them in for another year and Raiders are a wild card just b/c of Gruden.
If any teams above other than the Jags decide to move on leaving Manning, Winston, Keenum or Carr available Miami has easily found a QB just as good if not better than Tannehill, although I'm not a fan of signing an old Eli. Considering Bridgewater will be available and Lock, Finley, Hebert, Grier, Haskins will be available in the draft there is absolutely "ZERO" reason to offer Tannehill much money.
If Miami does bring back Tannehill giving him anything above a $12-15 mil one-year contract would be foolish. Which is why Miami will probably make him one of the highest paid QBs
The only team I can think of that Tannehill might have a chance of starting other than the QB foolish Dolphins is the Jags. Let them have him as that would prevent them from getting a good QB. To get into a bidding war with the Jags over an average at best QB when there are so many more options are available would be lunacy!
Both Jville and Denver and us are still facing pretty decent sized Cap hits with their incumbent QBs in 2019. That makes them more likely to go young at QB and avoid adding another 8 figure contract at the position.
Oakland, Tampa and the Giants all have QB contracts they can get out of without tkaing a massive cap hit to do it.
I think the Giants and Jaguars are the biggest threats to take a QB in round 1.
I think Oakland is all about Bosa
Denver sticks with Keenum and Tampa ultimately sticks with Winston
That leaves Miami back in no mans land at QB and that is where the Tannehill paycut and stick with him another year would come into play.
Its leaning that way with the current cap hit as much as I want new blood at QB.
But 2019 becomes make or break for the entire regime IMO. Young bring back Ryan and Gase and you are mediocre or worse . . . .you have to start fresh and get your QB in 2020.