Feverdream's Draft Theory

[Feverdream]

When it comes to the draft, I honestly believe that most fans, even some of our most enthusiastic brothers, just don't get it. Drafting for long-term success is what the perennial winning teams do, while drafting for short-term gain (I want it now!) is for losers and lunk-heads.

Let's start with a few absolutes.

1) Younger is better. If the 20 year old college player looks to be equivalent to the 23 year old guy, for all that is Holy, draft the 20 year old, or at least, look at what the 23 year old player accomplished 3 years ago.

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

3) Don't expect your drafted players to start from day 1, most of them just don't. They never have. It's nice if you can score one of these unicorns, but never expect it. Most NFL players need a year or two, but if they aren't starting by the end of year 3, it's likely time to cut bait... and understand that getting a player who starts immediately, but at a cheap position is much less valuable than you'd think. (Case in point, we got Aaron Brewer for 3 years/21m).

4) Understand the contract status, age, and injury history of every player on your roster and assign a numerical score to how likely you believe each player will still be on your roster in two years. Then draft the low probability player's replacements a year early. Players who need to be replaced immediately probably need to be addressed with free agents (sadly).

5) ...and finally... SCHEME FIT. Will your shiny new rookie fit what your team does? It isn't enough to scan the Kiper ratings and just pick the top guy. Does his skill set match what your team requires? Many, if not most players with the wrong skill set fail... or maybe worse yet, bail on you as soon as they can, looking for a team where they believe they'll provide a better fit. Call this one the Minkah-wants-his-mommy rule.

In my subsequent posts, I'll look specifically at which positions we'll need in the coming years.

 

[Jamesw]

This should be the Bible for every GM/fan to read if they are seriously into building a successful team.

 

[Bob512]

Great post!

Item #2 is an often missed reality that is often contradictory to what fans think we need in the early rounds!

 

[ONole1]

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

Great post, I agree pretty much with every point.

I would take this one a little further though. I am not drafting a WR in the top 10, possibly top 15 unless they are a generational talent. They also need to have the height speed thing going on. I like Waddle, but no way in hell would I have ever drafted him in the top 10.

Top 10 picks are for people that throw TD's, rush the QB, stop the guys that rush the QB, and cover the people that catch the TD's. So QB, OT, Edge (rare occasion DT), and CB.

 

[Danny]

When it comes to the draft, I honestly believe that most fans, even some of our most enthusiastic brothers, just don't get it. Drafting for long-term success is what the perennial winning teams do, while drafting for short-term gain (I want it now!) is for losers and lunk-heads.

Let's start with a few absolutes.

1) Younger is better. If the 20 year old college player looks to be equivalent to the 23 year old guy, for all that is Holy, draft the 20 year old, or at least, look at what the 23 year old player accomplished 3 years ago.

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

3) Don't expect your drafted players to start from day 1, most of them just don't. They never have. It's nice if you can score one of these unicorns, but never expect it. Most NFL players need a year or two, but if they aren't starting by the end of year 3, it's likely time to cut bait... and understand that getting a player who starts immediately, but at a cheap position is much less valuable than you'd think. (Case in point, we got Aaron Brewer for 3 years/21m).

4) Understand the contract status, age, and injury history of every player on your roster and assign a numerical score to how likely you believe each player will still be on your roster in two years. Then draft the low probability player's replacements a year early. Players who need to be replaced immediately probably need to be addressed with free agents (sadly).

5) ...and finally... SCHEME FIT. Will your shiny new rookie fit what your team does? It isn't enough to scan the Kiper ratings and just pick the top guy. Does his skill set match what your team requires? Many, if not most players with the wrong skill set fail... or maybe worse yet, bail on you as soon as they can, looking for a team where they believe they'll provide a better fit. Call this one the Minkah-wants-his-mommy rule.

In my subsequent posts, I'll look specifically at which positions we'll need in the coming years.

When you say "fit' what the team does, keep in mind we need to draft players that have missed plenty of games in college so that he can fit right in

 

[bdizzle00]

Very insightful. Thanks for posting. It all makes a lot of sense.

 

[ONole1]

When you say "fit' what the team does, keep in mind we get to draft players that have missed plenty of games in college so that he can fit right in

Agree, they way the landscape changes in college and the pro's schemes are constantly changing. Look for guys that have athleticism if you are running a ZBS. Personally, I like putting a helmet on a helmet, but that's not what Miami has in place so that's a moot point. Honestly, looks for guys that played tackle in college, but may not be athletic enough to stay on the edge in the NFL, but more athletic than a typical guard.

 

[pags77]

Excellent job on this post. Many of the successful franchises approach the draft this way but for it to be successful a team has to be consistent in their philosophy which requires having a GM and a coach that stick around for more than 3 years which is what plagues many of the franchises in the NFL.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

When it comes to the draft, I honestly believe that most fans, even some of our most enthusiastic brothers, just don't get it. Drafting for long-term success is what the perennial winning teams do, while drafting for short-term gain (I want it now!) is for losers and lunk-heads.

Let's start with a few absolutes.

1) Younger is better. If the 20 year old college player looks to be equivalent to the 23 year old guy, for all that is Holy, draft the 20 year old, or at least, look at what the 23 year old player accomplished 3 years ago.

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

3) Don't expect your drafted players to start from day 1, most of them just don't. They never have. It's nice if you can score one of these unicorns, but never expect it. Most NFL players need a year or two, but if they aren't starting by the end of year 3, it's likely time to cut bait... and understand that getting a player who starts immediately, but at a cheap position is much less valuable than you'd think. (Case in point, we got Aaron Brewer for 3 years/21m).

4) Understand the contract status, age, and injury history of every player on your roster and assign a numerical score to how likely you believe each player will still be on your roster in two years. Then draft the low probability player's replacements a year early. Players who need to be replaced immediately probably need to be addressed with free agents (sadly).

5) ...and finally... SCHEME FIT. Will your shiny new rookie fit what your team does? It isn't enough to scan the Kiper ratings and just pick the top guy. Does his skill set match what your team requires? Many, if not most players with the wrong skill set fail... or maybe worse yet, bail on you as soon as they can, looking for a team where they believe they'll provide a better fit. Call this one the Minkah-wants-his-mommy rule.

In my subsequent posts, I'll look specifically at which positions we'll need in the coming years.

Apologies, but I'm going to add some specific to Miami/Mcd
Refusing to draft a big WR
Refusing to draft a closer RB
Falling in love with big names (e.g., Chubb, OBJ) regardless of cost/production

 

[AMakados10]

When it comes to the draft, I honestly believe that most fans, even some of our most enthusiastic brothers, just don't get it. Drafting for long-term success is what the perennial winning teams do, while drafting for short-term gain (I want it now!) is for losers and lunk-heads.

Let's start with a few absolutes.

1) Younger is better. If the 20 year old college player looks to be equivalent to the 23 year old guy, for all that is Holy, draft the 20 year old, or at least, look at what the 23 year old player accomplished 3 years ago.

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

3) Don't expect your drafted players to start from day 1, most of them just don't. They never have. It's nice if you can score one of these unicorns, but never expect it. Most NFL players need a year or two, but if they aren't starting by the end of year 3, it's likely time to cut bait... and understand that getting a player who starts immediately, but at a cheap position is much less valuable than you'd think. (Case in point, we got Aaron Brewer for 3 years/21m).

4) Understand the contract status, age, and injury history of every player on your roster and assign a numerical score to how likely you believe each player will still be on your roster in two years. Then draft the low probability player's replacements a year early. Players who need to be replaced immediately probably need to be addressed with free agents (sadly).

5) ...and finally... SCHEME FIT. Will your shiny new rookie fit what your team does? It isn't enough to scan the Kiper ratings and just pick the top guy. Does his skill set match what your team requires? Many, if not most players with the wrong skill set fail... or maybe worse yet, bail on you as soon as they can, looking for a team where they believe they'll provide a better fit. Call this one the Minkah-wants-his-mommy rule.

In my subsequent posts, I'll look specifically at which positions we'll need in the coming years.

Love the topic.

On #2, agree in principle but think this more applies to 1st round picks and 5th season control. After that, fill holes with BPA imo.

On #5, in defense of Grier, how does he match scheme fit when the HC changes every 3 years, and on top Flores changed the OC yearly, while McD changed the DC yearly? Our HC gets fired before their second draft class of scheme fit players mature into year 3.

 

[Etuoo33]

Good post Fever. On #2, this is the reason our armchair GM's have so many "Fire Grier" posts. Some here would like to have drafted a guard at #1 last year to cover our obvious weakness after all the first round Guards were long gone. Guards don't score touchdowns. You need them but their value is lesser than say, a DROY candidate edge when both of your decent edges are injured late in the year and doubtful for the next year. And yes it applies to the premium value picks in the first round.

 

[lynx]

Agree in theory but a TON of rookies hit this year in 2024. Not sure if that's a pattern or not

 

[Dynastybuilder]

Agree in theory but a TON of rookies hit this year in 2024. Not sure if that's a pattern or not

A ton of rookies hit every year, especially in the first 50 or so picks.

This philosophy is why we've had a mediocre offensive line for a decade, and cannot pick up short yardage. Scheme fit is one thing, but you still need to be able to push the pile for a yard.

I find it extremely hard to believe that guards aren't available that can play a ZBS and be strong enough to get a little push when required. Actually, I'm pretty sure they are there but you need to prioritize them.

 

[LargoFin]

1) You do not draft for long term or future. You hire players to perform on contract, which is three or four years. That is the term.
5) You do not draft scheme fit. A coach is not in charge of talent acquisition and his scheme is irrelevant. You draft talent.

 

[ForksPhin]

When it comes to the draft, I honestly believe that most fans, even some of our most enthusiastic brothers, just don't get it. Drafting for long-term success is what the perennial winning teams do, while drafting for short-term gain (I want it now!) is for losers and lunk-heads.

Let's start with a few absolutes.

1) Younger is better. If the 20 year old college player looks to be equivalent to the 23 year old guy, for all that is Holy, draft the 20 year old, or at least, look at what the 23 year old player accomplished 3 years ago.

2) Players from expensive to fill positions in Free Agency MUST be drafted first, even when your needs might lean towards a cheaper player. You are just NOT going to find a cheap QB, WR, OT, Edge, or CB in free agency. Not a plus player... these guys make bank.

3) Don't expect your drafted players to start from day 1, most of them just don't. They never have. It's nice if you can score one of these unicorns, but never expect it. Most NFL players need a year or two, but if they aren't starting by the end of year 3, it's likely time to cut bait... and understand that getting a player who starts immediately, but at a cheap position is much less valuable than you'd think. (Case in point, we got Aaron Brewer for 3 years/21m).

4) Understand the contract status, age, and injury history of every player on your roster and assign a numerical score to how likely you believe each player will still be on your roster in two years. Then draft the low probability player's replacements a year early. Players who need to be replaced immediately probably need to be addressed with free agents (sadly).

5) ...and finally... SCHEME FIT. Will your shiny new rookie fit what your team does? It isn't enough to scan the Kiper ratings and just pick the top guy. Does his skill set match what your team requires? Many, if not most players with the wrong skill set fail... or maybe worse yet, bail on you as soon as they can, looking for a team where they believe they'll provide a better fit. Call this one the Minkah-wants-his-mommy rule.

In my subsequent posts, I'll look specifically at which positions we'll need in the coming years.

This is good.

The only minor issue I’d take with it is….scheme fit. This franchise has been so bad at selecting head coaches and coordinators that “scheme fit” is an ever-changing target. For example, with this regime in Year 3, I’d rather pick a top OL regardless of whether he is a zone-blocking scheme fit. Because the scheme could change within the next season.

Edit: I now see that others have mentioned this, so sorry about the repetition.