Finding Greatness In The Far Off Desolate Regions Of Football Land

[Kingdom Come]

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000567319

This is an old article but stunning nonetheless.

I knew there were a lot of players in the league that were undrafted but I was shocked by the 500 number.

I knew there were a few guys in the Hall of Fame that came from nowhere, but the 15 number really surprised me. That number will soon increase as Kurt Warner is predicted to get inducted this year or next.

I did not know those Dolphin Greats listed were undrafted.

It happens every single year in the NFL; no matter how tech savvy and specialized our scouts,GM's,and recruiting staffs become, they just miss it horribly.

How does it happen every year??? Why does it occur with such frequency?? 1st round players busting on an epic scale and undrafted players playing in the Pro Bowl.

Players who couldn't even make a practice squad going to Canada, and then showing some promise coming to the NFL and becoming candidates for the Hall Of Fame.(sound like anyone your familiar with?)

I know everybody is familiar with this enigma, but I think we forget about it and get back into that same flawed mentality that we are only going to get starters with top picks in the first three rounds of the draft.

Why do we spend 90% of our time arguing about who is going in the first round? Why are 90% of the mock drafts only the 1st round? We already know the GM's are going to blow it.

I am more interested in a mock draft of the 5th-7th rounds and some analysis on the guys not expected to get drafted.

Any thoughts on why these players are being ignored and how are they beating the odds??

Who are the guys who are expected to just make the final rounds of the draft or are expected to go undrafted this year who are actually going to become quality players for years in the NFL??

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/...ted-players-in-history-each-nfl-32-teams.html

 

[datruth55]

Special teamers like kickers and punters usually go undrafted. That's just the nature of the position.

The small school guys get overlooked, although I think that is changing given the larger scouting departments teams are now employing. Other guys go undrafted, like a Wes Welker, because they're don't have the measureables teams like...whether that's height, weight, timed speed, agility, etc.

Generally speaking the Dolphins have done well in the back half of the draft. Reshad Jones (5th round), Jay Ajayi (5th round), Tony Lippett (5th round), Matt Darr (undrafted), and Cam Wake (undrafted) all made major contributions last year. We've done a decent job in the 1st round too...maybe not as many impact players as you'd like but solid players. It's the 2nd - 4th round that's been killing this franchise. It's improved since Ireland was canned...I can't think of a 2nd round pick Ireland made that was any good. I suppose his best 2nd pick was Misi...in 6 drafts.

 

[wonderl33t]

I suppose his best 2nd pick was Misi...in 6 drafts.

Seriously. Our 2nd-3rd round picks prior to the past couple of seasons are a wasteland. So many Lorenzo Bookers, Derek Hagans, John Becks. Personally, I'd give Sean Smith the nod over Misi. He's pretty darn good even though he can't catch a cold.

 

[Bumpus]

The Draft is an art, not a science.

... or, a crap-shoot - whatever you'd prefer. :idk:

 

[Kingdom Come]

How do you identify the guys who are going to succeed??

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I think the NFL gets too caught up sometimes in combine times, height, weight, all those measureables. Obviously, those are important factors but good players always get overlooked for some reason whether it is lack of size, speed, or small school competition.

Just goes to show when the draft is over you've still got work to do. There's still talent out there.

 

[Kingdom Come]

What is it that makes these so called good players you mention who are being overlooked ......good players???

Why are their qualities hard to see by scouts and GM's??

Sometimes the answer is obvious. Antonio Gates was a basketball player. Jason Peters was a TE who couldn't catch. What about all the others who just get so misread by the NFL decision makers??

 

[LANGER72]

Production is almost always a great indicator of greatness. The only exception to that rule may be at QB.

Sometimes the system and talent around the QB can pad the stats and mask the flaws.

Most of the time, IMHO, the measurable and the position projection (along with the prognosticator's ego) blind the GM's from the better players.

Just a fan perspective.

 

[NorFlaFin]

One thing Gase and Company are doing different is the psych evaluation. Everybody in the NFL already has the measurable and excel spreadsheets read to help categorizes players. Apparently, one thing that's been missing from the Dolphins evaluations is the mental aspect. It was the mental evaluation that drove the Dolphins to draft Caroo including trading away next years picks.

I can remember Saban being laughed at for investing in a sport psychologist/psych evaluation only to have Bill Parcel abolish the same one year later. Makes me if the Dolphins draft board not smaller than others but tighter than most.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I'm not interested in outliers. Naturally with a 90 year history there will be raw numbers that sound impressive. But in percentage terms it is not impressive. This link is from 2009 but it breaks everything down very well. The first round is the blue blood proper focus. We've suffer recently because we've whiffed that first round far too often. Those later round guys who outperform their draft status don't come close to making up for first round failures:

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2009/04/mike_levypd_filejames_harrison.html

 

[Kingdom Come]

I'm not interested in outliers. Naturally with a 90 year history there will be raw numbers that sound impressive. But in percentage terms it is not impressive. This link is from 2009 but it breaks everything down very well. The first round is the blue blood proper focus. We've suffer recently because we've whiffed that first round far too often. Those later round guys who outperform their draft status don't come close to making up for first round failures:

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2009/04/mike_levypd_filejames_harrison.html

I think the verb,"whiffing," you used is being much too kind.

You are missing the point. How do we find the next Reshad Jones, the next Cam Wake?? The next Larry Little? The next Jim Langer?

What about the breakout candidates?? How are the late bloomers identified?? Who is the next Evan Mathis? The next Rich Gannon?

I am as happy as the next guy that the Dolphins finally made the playoffs, but you have to admit this FO has it's work cut out for it this Spring. Enormous decisions have to be made.

Don't the Dolphins really need to find starters in the low rounds, and true breakout players in free agency??

As far as the 1-3 rounds, IMO the GM should completely disregard roster needs and look for the guy who actually has HOF potential, at least serious potential to be an All-Pro someday.

 

[LANGER72]

I agree. You draft the best talent at each draft slot regardless of position. If you become abundantly strong at any position, you trade the excess talent away at a profit.


The FO has done a fair job the last 2 years so I am not complaining. Landry and Ajayi made the Pro bowl.
Compared to years past, we are drafting better. The Tunsil pick was a gift, but it did happen.

 

[D0lphan72]

Special teamers like kickers and punters usually go undrafted. That's just the nature of the position.

The small school guys get overlooked, although I think that is changing given the larger scouting departments teams are now employing. Other guys go undrafted, like a Wes Welker, because they're don't have the measureables teams like...whether that's height, weight, timed speed, agility, etc.

Generally speaking the Dolphins have done well in the back half of the draft. Reshad Jones (5th round), Jay Ajayi (5th round), Tony Lippett (5th round), Matt Darr (undrafted), and Cam Wake (undrafted) all made major contributions last year. We've done a decent job in the 1st round too...maybe not as many impact players as you'd like but solid players. It's the 2nd - 4th round that's been killing this franchise. It's improved since Ireland was canned...I can't think of a 2nd round pick Ireland made that was any good. I suppose his best 2nd pick was Misi...in 6 drafts.

I think Vernon was a 3rd