Fins gained ground with the moves... Potentially could've gained more.

[NBP81]

I could've easily posted this in the thread already rolling into a 20+ page war about who's right or wrong. Decided to start fresh with another TLDR; thread with the hope that we can all keep this one about intelligent discussion on the value aspect of the deal; And how it fits in the overall strategy of personal management for the Fins going foward. Let me get this out of the way first: The Fins did not lose ground in this trade, they were ahead of every single team in the NFL in draft assets for the forseeable future and absolutely gained ground by adding yet another 1st round pick to their wallet.

There's no question this is a win. the real question is: Could it have been a bigger win? and if so, How much risk were you willing to take in order to shoot for a bigger win? Which then leads to: does the fact that you're already way ahead of everyone in draft assets figure into the equation?

As a poker player, I kind of side with @Awsi Dooger that you're always looking to maximize value, and over time those decisions add up to optimal profit. OTOH when I play poker, I can play as many hands as I want, if I make the correct decision and still lose because of bad luck, I just get another hand rinse and repeat and over time filter out bad luck and reap profits. Playing with draft picks is obviously a different animal. You get one draft every year and make about 10 decision points on average. So the long run on this game doesnt spread out to a 5 hour 200 hands per hour session, it spreads out to 10+ years relatively.

Gms dont have that kind of leeway when making these deals so I can certainly understand the urge to lean on the safe side of these decisions. Or can they in certain situations? As a chip leader, are you more prone to take shots at optimal EV or are you more likely to sit on your stack and take shots at safe small pots when opportunities occur?

This all needs to be taken into account when forming an opinion on this deal. The fact the Fins are already at the top of the food chain when it comes to draft picks, the fact that just last year, the team sitting at the #3 spot in a draft with Burrow, Tua and Herbert was on the clock fuming at the lack of trade up offers and ended up empty handed. The fact that its really hard to assign market value to a 1st 2 years down the road. I mean I value every 1st round pick the same, its a good player on a discount contract on average, but the NFL certainly doesnt value future 1st the same as current ones.

This is just the tip of the iceberg when it come to what needs to be taken into account.

Ultimately, my opinion is that sitting on so much draft capital *as was* should have encouraged the Fins to be aggressive with number #3 and try to maximize value draft day. I'd have been perfectly fine with ending picking at #3 if it meant trying to get maximum value for that pick. There are so many ways the draft could have shaped up to get a team to really make a mistake and gift value to the Fins that i think it was a very +EV move. Worst case scenario is you pick at #3 and best case scenario is you get a true HAUL. I can live with those 2 outcomes but I'm also aware I might be missing something.

I'd really like to get some inteligent discussion about the incredible amount of ?s in this post. Lets try and not make a war out of this. :)

 

[andyahs]

The SF trade was I think the max value they could have gotten when they made the trade. The Eagles trade MAYBE could have gotten better value if we had held out but I think the decision was made when it was to prevent another team jumping them back into the top 6.

Yes everyone wants max value or maybe more in any trade but how it was all done within a short time frame shows me they wanted the #6 spot more than they wanted to wait on value in draft capital.

 

[Aqua Shadow]

I think the first trade was great value. The second trade was less value but more out of necessity to score the player(s) we covet. I try not to look at it as two trades but simply as a single three team trade. It makes the picture more clear for what it was, an overall plus for our team’s future.

 

[Kebo]

The problem with waiting is Atlanta wants to trade down at #4. Play the waiting game and ask for too much, they just trade up with Atlanta instead.

 

[andyahs]

I think the first trade was great value. The second trade was less value but more out of necessity to score the player(s) we covet. I try not to look at it as two trade but simply as one three team trade. It makes the picture more clear for what it was, an overall plus for our team’s future.

Suppose the Eagles are on the clock draft night and we want a player at #6 what would most give up to move up then?

 

[1972forever]

I think that getting the 49er‘s first round pick this year, their first round picks in 2022 and 2023 plus a third round pick in 2022 was a fantastic trade.

Obviously they have decided on one or two players they definitely want with their first pick and that is why they moved back up to 6 by giving up the the 12th pick this year, their own 2022 first round pick and trading late round picks over the next two years.

Unless they were willing to remain at 12 and hope a player they wanted with their first pick would slip down to them, I really don’t see what they could have done to end up with an additional first round pick in 2023 and still stay in the top 6 picks this year.

 

[The Ghost]

I certainly wouldn’t have made the deal with Philly after making the San Fran trade but I can also appreciate the fact that it’s as simple as Philly had something we really wanted, after San traded for something they really, really wanted from us at 3.

The other caveat to that deal is that we can still gain a lot of draft value if San Fran struggles again this year. We stand to gain the draft value of OUR pick vs. their pick as well as their 2023 first.

It also means the FO is executing a greater plan. That’s critical information. They see 2 skill position players they think they can open up their our offense. Their going to get one of them, barring a substantial trade offer when we are on the clock.

At the end of the day I’m thrilled to have gained an extra future first round pick. Coaches get fired, GMs get fired but those picks still belong to us.

Even more to be exited about today than a week ago. It’s that simple. Draft weekend can’t get here fast enough.

 

[NBP81]

I think that getting the 49er‘s first round pick this year, their first round picks in 2022 and 2023 plus a third round pick in 2022 was a fantastic trade.

Obviously they have decided on one or two players they definitely want with their first pick and that is why they moved back up to 6 by giving up the the 12th pick this year, their own 2022 first round pick and trading late round picks over the next two years.

Unless they were willing to remain at 12 and hope a player they wanted with their first pick would slip down to them, I really don’t see what they could have done to end up with an additional first round pick in 2023 and still stay in the top 6 picks this year.

I understand that, but was there any urgency to trade #3 a month before the draft?

 

[andyahs]

I understand that, but was there any urgency to trade #3 a month before the draft?

Depends how the talks went. If the best offer was made by the niners with them saying they will pull it in a week then yes you do it now. Supposedly they wanted the Jet's #2 and they said no but the Jet's could also change their tune in a week.

 

[Durango2020]

Suppose the Eagles are on the clock draft night and we want a player at #6 what would most give up to move up then?

Miami was wise making the trade with the Eagles now then waiting until draft. If a top QB somehow falls to 6 then that value skyrockets and you are paying a lot more to gain that position. At the end of the day, Grier has to ensure 1 thing and that is the team is setup to make playoffs this year and gaining top level players (top 10 in draft) is the best way to do this. Additionally, being at 6 gives a lot of potential to not only pick the top non-QB but create additional trades and still get who you want. Brilliant move, anyone who doesn't see it does not understand the GM position and what is expected of it.

 

[biggrouper]

I think over all, we won. Could we have won more? Maybe but that's an argument that no one can win or know.

Considering we are playing with house (Houston's) money with that pick i am happy to be sitting in the current position.

 

[raving]

Are you asking if the Dolphins maybe would have benefitted more from waiting until draft day?

Here’s what’s happening IMO.

The Dolphins want Pitts. He answers a lot questions. He’s a MAJOR red zone asset. Miami would have Gisecki Sheehan Pitts Parker Williams and Smythe to attack your corners - you better have tons of length because the jump balls are going to Miami.

plus Pitts can block - so you can put out 2, 3 or 4 tight ends and run the ball with a serious viable pass threat.

Now 6 pick costs less than 3 and you likely still get your guy.

additionally Miami has SF 49ers 1st pick next year so the team could pick top 5 next year...

Plus this move makes NE jumping up to get a qb more difficult or expensive because they have to jump to 4 vs 6....

so the gain loss equation is larger than what meet the eye.

if SF is a bottom 5 team next year....Miami can trade again here or collect a potential blue chip player. That’s real juice!

plus Miami is not done dealing - I predict we trade out of 18 - The Dolphins now have 5 in the top 100 players but I think the want 7...

2 Edge rushers - Pitts plus a receiver - 1 o lineman and 1 Rb and one safety....and then take a flyer on a RV in round 5 and take a qb in round 7.

Look for a big bruising back and a maybe Williams from NC...Ramandre Stevenson?

 

[1972forever]

I understand that, but was there any urgency to trade #3 a month before the draft?

I assume they were afraid that the 49er’s might decide to offer the Falcons the same offer and that no other team would be willing to offer them first round picks in 2022 and 2023 to move up.

It was reported that several other teams had contacted the Dolphins about moving up to 3 but obviously the 49er’s had the best offer. Also if the Dolphins are likely targeting a specific player or position at 6, They really couldn’t trade with a team that was drafting much lower than 12. Because that might have meant they wouldn’t have been able to trade with the Eagles without giving up even more than they did to move from 12 back to 6.

I just think they did an excellent job getting the most from the 3rd pick in the draft and now they just have to select an elite player at 6.

 

[rickd13]

I don’t have a problem at all with the San Francisco trade. In fact I think it was brilliant. BlueFin made an excellent point in the thread about how Miami lost value. He said how many contracts do you want to have coming due at the same time? It makes sense to extend your resources out into future years so when you have to let guys walk because of the salary cap you always have a source to replenish your roster and remain competitive.
The second trade seems more controversial. By doing it now they positioned themselves to get one of the top non QB prospects in the draft. I think they did it now instead of waiting until Philadelphia was on the clock is because they removed any threats of competing offers and the possibility of having to offer assets from this year’s draft.

 

[Aqua Shadow]

Suppose the Eagles are on the clock draft night and we want a player at #6 what would most give up to move up then?

Keep in mind I’m not complaining. I’m not sure we could have saved much in trade value but it feels like the move was executed quickly without considering the other options because we wanted a top talent so bad. Maybe I’m looking into it too deeply