Fins in power position at #20 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Fins in power position at #20

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DannyNoonan

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I read recently (somewhere on-line...cannot remember where) that there are 17-20 blue chip prospects in this draft. If someone can find the link, please help me out. I have also read many places that once we get past the late teens/early 20's, the next 25 or so picks grade out similarly.

Another source seems to agree with this thinking about a tier ending at around the Dolphins' pick. In the Sporting News NFL Draft Preview edition, Dan Pompei wrote that there are two drop-off points in the 1st round. One is after the first 7 players (alphabetically: Fitzgerald, Gallery, Manning, Roethlisberger, Taylor, Roy Williams, Winslow). He then goes on to write "the second major drop-off will come after 20-23 players are chosen, depending on how many surprises occur in the top 20. Teams in the lower half of the first round could try to move up into the teens to secure one of the last premium prospects." (this is in print...I think it is available on-line, but only on a subscriber basis)

If this is true and other NFL teams agree, then we may have more leverage than many thought by sitting at #20. I am unsure who will drop to us, but it seems that if it isn't someone we covet (Andrews, perhaps), then the player certainly could be someone that another team covets and is willing to pay handsomely to hop up a few spots to #20 to draft him.

If the draft flows like Pompei posits, then we could have the choice of:
A) selecting from one or two of the blue chip players that fall to us, or
B) trading down a few spots to a team that really wants one of those players that slides down to #20.

Either way, Saturday at 2 p.m. EST could be more interesting than many thought.
 
As the draft gets near a lot of teams start to make the moves. I think we'd be fine by staying at 20 but we could do just as good by moving down. I don't think Andrews will be there and I'm hoping we'll get Evans and then go o-line in round 3.

Ozzy rules!!
 
Danny said:
As the draft gets near a lot of teams start to make the moves. I think we'd be fine by staying at 20 but we could do just as good by moving down. I don't think Andrews will be there and I'm hoping we'll get Evans and then go o-line in round 3.

Ozzy rules!!
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What I'd really like to see happen is for the Phins to drop down a few spots and still pick Evans. When we're on the clock on Saturday afternoon and Andrews is gone, there may be a couple of teams offering extra picks for the chance to take "their guy" at #20. We could drop down, still get Evans (or another WR), and pick up an extra day-one pick (to be used on OL).
 
Nothing wrong with getting a top WR, and getting a second to boot for tradeing down and taking Grove, Smiley or Snee.Dolfanreal69
 
Will be a fun day.

Scouts Inc has a bit of a dropoff reflected in their grades too. After pick #17, who grades a 95 (Reggie Williams, Phil Rivers, Dunta Robinson, Steven Jackson) it drops to grade 93 for Andrews, Evans, and DJ Williams. Then it drops to 92 with Vilma, Clayton, Gamble, and Troupe. Only two players grade at 91, Starks and Dansby...one player grades a 90 that is Jenkins. From there its a bunch of 89s (nine of them).

So its really a preference where you draw the line. It seems like there's a line drawn at #17 with Reggie, Rivers, Dunta, and Jackson and then the next crowd...because there are no 94s (Andrews use to be graded a 94, they downgraded him to a 93 for unknown reasons).

Just eyeballing through the names it seems like Scouts Inc has it about right with a few exceptions.

The top 7 guys, pretty locked in as the top 7 and any one of them could carry a 99 grade depending on whose eye you are going by...Winslow is the best player on at least one team's board period, Sean Taylor likewise carries a best player tag on some boards, lord knows some think Gallery is the best, and plenty of teams really really high on Roy Williams (one personnel guy when asked how this class will stack up to classes that included Tim Brown and Mike Irvin etc said Williams will be the guy that people compare other players to), and yet still others high on Larry Fitzgerald (including Scouts Inc who have him at the best player in the draft). Then there are the enigma QBs Roethlisberger and Manning, a lot of scouts don't know if these guys should be ranked higher than everyone else, or which QB should be ranked higher than each other, most of them just know that they are both better than Rivers who is still dang good. Manning might be the top overall pick, and yet Roethlisberger could be better than Manning...sooo...that wraps up the top 7.

Then eyeballing the next level you've got your Kenechi Udezes and Tommie Harrises, Vince Wilforks, the CBs Hall and Robinson, Reggie, Mike, phenomenal speedster Will Smith who could be better than Udeze, the undisputed best RB in the draft Steven Jackson, the intriguing Phil Rivers, the mammoth Shawn Andrews, extremely high risk/reward package in Chris Gamble, and the tough hero Jon Vilma...

After that its like ok I like Lee Evans, I like Michael Jenkins, DJ Williams, Mike Clayton, Kevin Jones, Dansby, Troupe, Starks, Carey etc...but are they REALLY in the same group as the guys I listed above? At one time Clayton was making his case to be included but he's fallen off a bit.

So my breaks are the top 7, then the top 19...however there's always surprises so you can bet one of the top 19 I have will fall to pick #20. Lets just hope its Andrews, Rivers, Vilma, or a WR, and not a CB.
 
Unfortunately of the guys I named in the top 19 I think the ones with the best shot at falling to pick #20 are Gamble and Vilma...more likely than Andrews falling unfortunately. But I'm still crossing my fingers!
 
BTW has anyone noticed that ESPN's countdown til the draft has the draft happening at midnite between Friday and Saturday? Late draft...
 
Either way, Saturday at 2 p.m. EST could be more interesting than many thought.
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I am not sure why at 2pm EST it is going to be good? Draft starts at noon and 15min per pick in the first round means 20 will be closer to 5 p.m. EST. =)

I like the idea of being able to really cash in for our 20 IF the guy we covet is not there. I just hope Rick does not get gready and try to trade down just to get more picks. If that really is the breaking point of talent and the blue chipper we want is there... GRAB HIM.
 
ckparrothead said:
Will be a fun day.


So my breaks are the top 7, then the top 19...however there's always surprises so you can bet one of the top 19 I have will fall to pick #20. Lets just hope its Andrews, Rivers, Vilma, or a WR, and not a CB.
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But if it is a CB (or a QB or a RB), then we might be looking at multiple teams wanting to trade up to our spot to select him. Then we can drop down, knowing we can still select "Lee Evans...Michael Jenkins, DJ Williams, Mike Clayton, Kevin Jones, Dansby, Troupe, Starks, Carey, etc." at the lower pick. Plus, we could pick up another first-day pick.

Sitting at the edge of a tier is usually advantageous. A player we like could fall to us, giving us good value (not having to pay him large signing bonus and such). Or we could miss out on our coveted players but still have other teams vying to trade up into our spot to get their coveted player.
 
DannyNoonan said:
But if it is a CB (or a QB or a RB), then we might be looking at multiple teams wanting to trade up to our spot to select him. Then we can drop down, knowing we can still select "Lee Evans...Michael Jenkins, DJ Williams, Mike Clayton, Kevin Jones, Dansby, Troupe, Starks, Carey, etc." at the lower pick. Plus, we could pick up another first-day pick.

Sitting at the edge of a tier is usually advantageous. A player we like could fall to us, giving us good value (not having to pay him large signing bonus and such). Or we could miss out on our coveted players but still have other teams vying to trade up into our spot to get their coveted player.
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I don't think you should have QB in your list of drops that we'd pass on... if Phillip Rivers is there at 20 (I'm assuming that's the QB you're refering to) then we take him no questions asked. That is also assuming that Andrews is gone, which to me would have to happen in order for Rivers to fall. We're FAR from set at QB for the next couple of years ( RS has stated that he's not necessarily looking for a starter THIS year) with just the aquisition of Feeley...
 
phinphanphrommi said:
I don't think you should have QB in your list of drops that we'd pass on... if Phillip Rivers is there at 20 (I'm assuming that's the QB you're refering to) then we take him no questions asked. That is also assuming that Andrews is gone, which to me would have to happen in order for Rivers to fall. We're FAR from set at QB for the next couple of years ( RS has stated that he's not necessarily looking for a starter THIS year) with just the aquisition of Feeley...
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Right. Its possible, but not likely that both Andrews and Rivers will be there....but one of them could be at 20 depending on how the draft slides. I'm just hoping one of them is there....If not, we'll find a pretty darn good WR there and an opportunity to trade back in Round 1.
 
Regardless of what happens, we can take pride in knowing that Wanny is not in charge of the draft this year.

It is evident that RS is running the show. If DW was in charge, would we have made this many moves this offseason?
 
You make some good points, which makes trading down even more interesting for us. One guy that's moving up on my board and many people think is not quite worthy of a #20 pick is Michael Jenkins. If Shawn Andrews is not there, Jenkins could be a great pick at #20 (if we stay there). Consider this: Jenkins has been healthy (unlike Lee Evans), very productive (a catch in 38 straight games at the highest level - The Big Ten), great size and speed (6'4' - 4.3), good, soft hands and a great upside. In addition, he is an excellent punt returner (something we haven't had in years) who rarely miscues. Jenkins also provides a huge body over the middle (something we really don't have now) with great speed, which would make him a great slot or #3 wide receiver. Finally, Jenkins offers insurance in case Chambers escapes via free agency or Boston weirds out on us (as he has previously done). The few problems Jenkins has I think will easily we remedied by Jerry Sullivan. We have the best receivers coach in the NFL, let's put him to work and get rid of the dead weight (Derrious Thompson, for example). We would have 3 really dangerous receivers, all with different skills and size.

I would like to take Jenkins at #20, then go OL in Round 3. A decent lineman should still be available in the 3rd. LB in the 4th round and we'd have a great draft.
 
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