Fins playoff update: Week 15 (updated 12/17)
Fins playoff update: Week 15
Like last week, Miami’s win provoked a rash of conflicting and often inaccurate posts about what needs to happen for our Fins to make the postseason. The difference is last week the confusion was about the division title, and this week it’s the wildcard. Some information was correct, some was incorrect. So once again, it’s probably worth going through this in detail so that those of us who like to follow this will know what’s what.
Those of us who prefer to ignore all this and just “focus†on the next game – a critical element of any Fins victory, this fan focus – are invited to skip this thread entirely.
Some of what’s below is obvious, but it’s worth getting down clearly in one place anyway, rather than scattered through threads here and there.
None of what’s below is meant to predict or imply how likely something is to happen (with one exception). Form your own opinions about that. This is strictly a breakdown of what’s possible under the tiebreaking rules.
Finally, all of the breakdowns below assume that no games end tied.
For reference, here is the link to the NFL tiebreak rules.
Dolphins deathwatch, week 15
If the Fins lose Sunday, they will be eliminated from the division AND from the wildcard races.
If the Patriots win Sunday, Miami will be eliminated from the division race (even if we win).
If Jacksonville and and San Diego BOTH win Sunday, Miami will be eliminated from the wildcard race (even if we win). Yeah, this one’s odd, but you’ll see why farther on.
Otherwise, we’ll stay alive for something into week 16.
You can stop reading here, if you’re prone to headaches. To find out WHY the above is how it works, press on.
The division: Simple enough
By now everyone probably realizes that the only way to win the division is to win all three remaining games, and for the Pats to lose their next two (Tampa, Jets) before losing again to Miami. We cannot win a 9-7 tiebreak with the Pats – this was already true last week – nor can we win one at 8-8. Any Miami loss or Pats win ends it. Simple enough.
The wildcard: 9-7 essential
There will not be any wildcards available at 8-8. This is because Jacksonville already has 9 wins, while San Diego and Kansas City both have 8, with a game against each other left to play. Unless they tie, one of them will have at least 9 wins.
By the way, I posted last week that we had already been eliminated from the #1 wildcard. That might have been wrong. It also might have been correct, for different reasons than I’d calculated. Either way, sorry about that, if anyone noticed.
In any case, for a wildcard to matter to us, Miami needs to finish 9-7 but not win the division. So, let’s first assume that. Otherwise, this is pointless. Miami will be 9-7, and 7-5 in the AFC.
The Jacksonville assumption
If the Jags win one more game, that puts one wildcard out of reach to us. It doesn’t necessarily mean they clinch a wildcard with one more win – they might, I’m not sure and I don’t really care. It just means that one wildcard would definitely go to a team that finishes at least 10-6, and that won’t be us.
To make this semi-manageable, and since Jacksonville has a ridiculously soft schedule remaining (San Fran, Houston, Tennessee), I’m going to assume that they will win at least one game. Maybe they won’t, but it seems highly likely. If they lose next week, or lose the next two, we can bring them back into the equation, but let’s agree to ignore them for now, and assume they get the #1 wildcard.
That leaves one wildcard available, hopefully at 9-7.
Chasing three at 8-5
The three teams ahead of us for the other wildcard are Pittsburgh, San Diego and Kansas City. All are 8-5. It’s simple math to realize that if ANY of these teams wins two more games, Miami is eliminated. Here are their schedules:
Pittsburgh: @Minnesota, @Cleveland, Detroit
San Diego: @Indianapolis, @Kansas City, Denver
Kansas City: @NY Giants, San Diego, Cincinnati
All of these teams must lose at least twice for Miami to have a chance at winning a 9-7 wildcard. If you are masochistic enough to slog through all the convoluted possibilities that follow, keep that in mind. Two wins by ANY of them, and we’re done. They ALL may, however, each win ONCE – depending on which games they win. None of them HAS to lose out. (We might even NEED a San Diego win in the final week, as we’ll see later.)
The fantasy longshot
If all three wildcard rivals lose all remaining games, except for San Diego beating Kansas City, Miami and the Chargers will be the only 9-7 teams and we will win the first tiebreak (head-to-head record) due to last Sunday’s game. That’s nice, neat, simple, and almost too improbable to consider seriously. Nonetheless, it is accurate.
Fortunately, all that isn’t necessary. We can win a 9-7 wildcard in other ways. It just starts getting complicated.
Two-way ties: kid stuff
These are the easiest to figure out. If only two teams finish 9-7, the tiebreaks are straightforward. We lose to Kansas City (head-to-head loss), and we beat San Diego (head-to-head win).
Pittsburgh is slightly more complicated, but not much. The Steelers are 6-5 in the AFC with one conference game left (Cleveland). If Pittsburgh wins that game but no other, they will obviously finish 7-5 in the AFC, same as us. Since there is no Fins-Steelers head-to-head record, and since our AFC records would be tied, the next tiebreak is games against common opponents. This only applies if there are at least four games to compare. In this case, there are: we both will have played the Jets, Chargers, Browns and Titans. Miami will finish 3-2 against those teams, and Pittsburgh is now 3-1. Winning that remaining Cleveland game would make them 4-1, meaning that Pittsburgh wins the tiebreak.
However, if the Steelers’ only remaining win comes elsewhere (Detroit?), it’s a different story. They will finish 6-6 in the AFC, and we will win the tiebreak that way.
It’s worth noting that a straight-up, two-way tie with Pittsburgh isn’t possible, since KC or SD will get a ninth win. However, we still need to know what happens if Miami and Pittsburgh face off one-on-one, because of the mysterious procedures that may await us in ...
Three-way ties: Egad
Any confusion over our chances usually starts here. Ties among three or more teams are treated slightly differently, and odd things can happen. It is possible to lose a tiebreak to a team that you have beaten during the season, or to win one over a team that has beaten you. Not always, but sometimes. In fact, that could just possibly happen this year to Miami, in our favor.
One key point to remember in multiple-team ties is that as you run the tiebreak procedures, if only one team is eliminated by one of the steps, you start over from the beginning with the remaining teams. That’s why we need to know about Miami-Pittsburgh, even though they cannot be the only two 9-7 AFC teams. Got it? Good.
Since we already know the deal on any two-way ties, let’s look at three- or four-way ties.
KC or SD, but not both
If three or more teams are tied for a wildcard, and two (or more) are from one division, the first step is to eliminate all but one from that division. This has nothing to do with any of the other teams in the tiebreak. You apply the same division tiebreaks as you would to find out who wins it, except this time it’s for second place. When that’s done, you start the wildcard tiebreak from scratch, with the remaining teams.
So let’s say all four teams finish 9-7. The first step is to eliminate KC or SD with their usual division tiebreaks – head-to-head, division record, etc. Then, you start over with the remaining three teams. None of this matters unless BOTH KC and SD win one more game (and only one) to finish 9-7. But if that happens, and:
If the Chargers win the SD-KC game, they will have a 2-0 series sweep this season, and place second in the division. KC would be eliminated first and not figure into the wildcard tiebreak with Miami and/or Pittsburgh. This is a Good Thing, as we shall see.
If the Chiefs win the SD-KC game, the opposite is ... NOT necessarily true. It depends on which of their other two games the Chargers win. If they beat Denver, they win that first KC-SD tiebreak based on a better common games record. (Head-to-head would be split, and division records equal.) If the Chargers instead beat Indianapolis and lose to Denver (and KC), the Chargers would be eliminated first in that intra-division tiebreak with KC due to a worse division record.
This is what I meant by odd things happening in multiple-team ties. It is possible for KC to finish 9-7 along with Miami, SD and Pittsburgh, for KC also to hold the best AFC record (8-4) among all four, PLUS a victory over Miami, and still not win the wildcard. In fact, they could be the first team eliminated. Yes, seriously.
KC or SD? Chargers, please
Now that we’re clear about eliminating one of two teams from the same division first, it’s also clear that we are really only chasing two teams, not three, for the second wildcard: Pittsburgh, and KC or SD. A three-way tie with SD and KC, for example, isn’t really a three-way tie at all; one of those two eliminates the other while we wait on the sidelines, then it becomes a two-way tie. Or a four-way becomes a three-way.
It seems obvious that we want SD, not KC, to be the #2 team from their division. And in fact that is correct, but not entirely for the obvious reason (our head-to-head loss or win).
If Miami, Pittsburgh and KC vie for the wildcard (SD finishing 8-8, or having been the first eliminated, as above), the Chiefs’ win over us will not count. This is due to the “head-to-head sweep†rule. Head-to-head games among three teams ONLY count if one team has beaten BOTH the others (in which case it wins immediately), or has lost to both others (in which case it is eliminated immediately, and the other two start over).
The good news: Since KC didn’t play Pittsburgh this year, you can toss out their win over us, at least for the first tiebreak round in a three-way with us and Pitt. The bad news: KC is already 7-3 in the AFC, and beating SD would make them 8-4. Pittsburgh will be 6-6 or 7-5 (see above), and Miami will be 7-5. So, KC will win the tiebreak outright, with the best AFC record – not due to having beaten Miami, but that’s hardly any consolation.
However, even if KC beats SD but SD beats Denver, it’s the Chargers who take #2 in the division anyway (see above, again). This is much better. KC is out first, and in a three-way tiebreak among Miami, Pittsburgh and San Diego, the head-to-head sweep rule DOES apply, because Pittsburgh beat San Diego this season. Because of this, the Chargers get eliminated next, leaving Miami and Pittsburgh. That tiebreak goes as detailed above, and we win it – IF the Steelers lost to Cleveland.
Detail for the deranged
Feel free to skip this section. It’s for the really obsessive. It is impossible for the Chiefs to finish 9-7 and 7-5 in the AFC, and also eliminate the Chargers (if they too are 9-7) first. KC would have to beat the Giants but then lose its two remaining AFC games. But if that happened, it means that SD beat KC, and we already know that if SD wins that game, it’s the Chargers not the Chiefs who emerge as #2 in their division. (Reminder: this still assumes these teams finish 9-7.)
Why does this matter? Because it might have allowed the Steelers to beat the Browns without killing Miami’s chances. If Miami, Pittsburgh and KC were all 9-7 and 7-5 in the AFC, we might not face the potentially deadly second-round tie with Pittsburgh, which we can lose via common game record. Instead, the common-game tiebreak would apply to all three teams considered together, except in this case it wouldn’t, because the only common opponents all three teams faced were the Patriots and Chargers, and there are not four games to consider. Pittsburgh has only played two games against those teams, while Miami and KC will have played three. Then it would go to "strength of victory" and who knows what.
I must admit I’m unclear at this point on whether the minimum of four means four distinct opponents, or four games played by each tiebreak team against any common opponents, or four games total. The NFL rules, or at least the ones they have online, aren’t precise.
In any case, since it can’t come to that, it’s a moot point. I was just being thorough. But thanks for reading.
Must-win #1: Colts over Chargers
Of the eight remaining games for Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego, at this point only two are already absolutely, positively critical: Indianapolis must beat San Diego this week, and Cleveland must beat Pittsburgh next week.
The Colts-Chargers game surprised me. I originally calculated that SD and KC would both need to win (plus Jacksonville) for us to be eliminated from the wildcard, but follow this carefully:
First, assume San Diego wins Sunday. We know that they MUST lose their following two for Miami to have any chance. So OK, then they lose to the Chiefs – but that means KC will finish #2 in their division unless the Chargers beat Denver in the final week. From Miami’s perspective, that can’t happen: that makes the Chargers 10-6. But we can’t afford KC at #2 in the division either – they’ll win the tiebreak whether it’s with us alone, or with Pittsburgh.
So: If San Diego wins Sunday, they can neither win nor lose the following week without eliminating Miami in the process, either way. (Maybe if they tie ...? Naah.) Fortunately, San Diego faces a Colts team that’s on a bit of a roll lately.
It would also be helpful if San Diego, after losing, went on to beat Kansas City – but as we’ve seen, that isn’t absolutely necessary. If both lose this week, and KC beats SD next week, we could still be OK if SD beats Denver and KC loses to Cincinnati in the final week. (Remember, quite some time ago, I said we might NEED the Chargers to win one, rather than finishing 8-8? Well, here we are. That was easy, wasn’t it?)
Must-win #2: Browns over Steelers
Now, on to the Steelers-Browns next week, assuming we survive that long. If the Steelers had another remaining AFC game they could lose instead of this one, it wouldn’t matter. But they don’t, so it does.
If you want to hope that Pittsburgh loses out to finish 8-8 and not be involved in a tiebreak with us at all, that’s fine too, but one of those three losses will still have to be ... Cleveland.
Or maybe there’s a way for Pittsburgh to get eliminated FIRST in a three-way tiebreak? Good idea, but no, there isn’t. The third team – and there MUST be one – is either San Diego (which gets cut first) or Kansas City, which wins via AFC record no matter how you slice it (see the deranged detail, above).
Yes, most of the other six games these teams play need to go our way too, but Cleveland must beat Pittsburgh. There’s no way around it.
By next week, there could well be more games that MUST go a certain way for us, depending on what happens this week. Specifically, if KC wins this week, then SD MUST beat them next week and both MUST lose in the final week. But as of now, there’s a tiny bit of flexibility left.
A Jacksonville reminder
Don’t forget we have assumed, way back when and probably with good reason, that the Jags will put one of the wildcards out of reach for us, if not this week (San Fran) then next (Houston). If Jacksonville collapses in historic fashion, losing its final three to teams that are now a combined 7-32, they would finish 9-7. This probably would help us, but as we’ve seen, multi-team tiebreaks can get screwy. The whole process of which teams are eliminated, in what order, would change. If San Fran knocks off Jacksonville, we’ll try to calculate this next week. Maybe. Sheesh.
This weekend: Obvious choices
This almost goes without saying, but we would get off to a good start with the following three games:
Colts over Chargers: As noted, a must-win (unless the Jags lose out – maybe). If you can’t bring yourself to root for a team getting close to undefeated, console yourself with the knowledge that your rooting will have no effect whatsoever. Even with the lucky jersey on.
Giants over Chiefs: New York is at home, where they are 6-1 this year. Their only loss in Giants Stadium was to Minnesota, speaking of which ...
Vikings over Steelers: Minnesota has won six straight (yes, six), and they are a dome team playing at home against the more outdoorsy bunch from Pittsburgh. We already know the Steelers must lose to Cleveland, so if their second loss doesn’t happen here, first, that leaves only Detroit to do it – in Pittsburgh. Best not to rely on the Lions.
Beyond those, of course, Tampa needs to beat New England to keep our division chances alive.
And oh yeah, Miami needs to beat the Jets.
Check my work (and yours)
I’ve been as careful as I can be to check everything here. If you spot an error, we’ll all benefit by having it posted so we can correct things. So please check my work, if you’re so inclined – but check yours too, and don’t add to the confusion by posting a correction without explaining it. Y’know, like: “KC beat us so if they’re 9-7 we’re out. End of story.â€Â
End of story. Finally.
Update 12/14: Wildcard simplified (kinda)
There was another thread trying to boil down the wildcard, taking all three remaining weeks into account. That's a good idea, and I should have done that here, but this post was so long already, I didn't. Nothing has changed from what's above, but this is as simple as I can possibly make it and remain accurate. Besides winning out, for Miami to win the second wildcard, the following must happen:
Pittsburgh must lose to Cleveland and at least one other game.
Kansas City must lose at least twice.
San Diego must lose to Indianapolis and once more. However, if the Chargers lose their next two, they must beat Denver in week 17.
Disclaimer: If Jacksonville loses all three, the above might no longer be correct. I will figure that out next week, if the Jags lose Sunday.
Hope that helps.
Saturday evening update (12/17)
As we all know, New England has clinched the division.
If Kansas City had beaten the Giants today, Miami would have needed six out of seven games to go its way, plus its own. Since the Chiefs lost, the Dolphins are one small step closer to a wildcard. Besides winning out, Miami needs either four out of five, or five out of six games to go its way (depending on the Chiefs-Chargers result):
Pittsburgh must lose at least two, including one to Cleveland.
San Diego must lose to Indianapolis tomorrow. Assuming that happens...
If San Diego beats Kansas City next week, then the Chargers must lose in week 17 to Denver and it will not matter if the Chiefs win or lose their final game.
If Kansas City beats San Diego next week, then the Chargers must beat Denver in week 17 and the Chiefs must lose to Cincinnati.
The usual disclaimer: If Jacksonville loses out, there might be another way in.
Fins playoff update: Week 15
Like last week, Miami’s win provoked a rash of conflicting and often inaccurate posts about what needs to happen for our Fins to make the postseason. The difference is last week the confusion was about the division title, and this week it’s the wildcard. Some information was correct, some was incorrect. So once again, it’s probably worth going through this in detail so that those of us who like to follow this will know what’s what.
Those of us who prefer to ignore all this and just “focus†on the next game – a critical element of any Fins victory, this fan focus – are invited to skip this thread entirely.
Some of what’s below is obvious, but it’s worth getting down clearly in one place anyway, rather than scattered through threads here and there.
None of what’s below is meant to predict or imply how likely something is to happen (with one exception). Form your own opinions about that. This is strictly a breakdown of what’s possible under the tiebreaking rules.
Finally, all of the breakdowns below assume that no games end tied.
For reference, here is the link to the NFL tiebreak rules.
Dolphins deathwatch, week 15
If the Fins lose Sunday, they will be eliminated from the division AND from the wildcard races.
If the Patriots win Sunday, Miami will be eliminated from the division race (even if we win).
If Jacksonville and and San Diego BOTH win Sunday, Miami will be eliminated from the wildcard race (even if we win). Yeah, this one’s odd, but you’ll see why farther on.
Otherwise, we’ll stay alive for something into week 16.
You can stop reading here, if you’re prone to headaches. To find out WHY the above is how it works, press on.
The division: Simple enough
By now everyone probably realizes that the only way to win the division is to win all three remaining games, and for the Pats to lose their next two (Tampa, Jets) before losing again to Miami. We cannot win a 9-7 tiebreak with the Pats – this was already true last week – nor can we win one at 8-8. Any Miami loss or Pats win ends it. Simple enough.
The wildcard: 9-7 essential
There will not be any wildcards available at 8-8. This is because Jacksonville already has 9 wins, while San Diego and Kansas City both have 8, with a game against each other left to play. Unless they tie, one of them will have at least 9 wins.
By the way, I posted last week that we had already been eliminated from the #1 wildcard. That might have been wrong. It also might have been correct, for different reasons than I’d calculated. Either way, sorry about that, if anyone noticed.
In any case, for a wildcard to matter to us, Miami needs to finish 9-7 but not win the division. So, let’s first assume that. Otherwise, this is pointless. Miami will be 9-7, and 7-5 in the AFC.
The Jacksonville assumption
If the Jags win one more game, that puts one wildcard out of reach to us. It doesn’t necessarily mean they clinch a wildcard with one more win – they might, I’m not sure and I don’t really care. It just means that one wildcard would definitely go to a team that finishes at least 10-6, and that won’t be us.
To make this semi-manageable, and since Jacksonville has a ridiculously soft schedule remaining (San Fran, Houston, Tennessee), I’m going to assume that they will win at least one game. Maybe they won’t, but it seems highly likely. If they lose next week, or lose the next two, we can bring them back into the equation, but let’s agree to ignore them for now, and assume they get the #1 wildcard.
That leaves one wildcard available, hopefully at 9-7.
Chasing three at 8-5
The three teams ahead of us for the other wildcard are Pittsburgh, San Diego and Kansas City. All are 8-5. It’s simple math to realize that if ANY of these teams wins two more games, Miami is eliminated. Here are their schedules:
Pittsburgh: @Minnesota, @Cleveland, Detroit
San Diego: @Indianapolis, @Kansas City, Denver
Kansas City: @NY Giants, San Diego, Cincinnati
All of these teams must lose at least twice for Miami to have a chance at winning a 9-7 wildcard. If you are masochistic enough to slog through all the convoluted possibilities that follow, keep that in mind. Two wins by ANY of them, and we’re done. They ALL may, however, each win ONCE – depending on which games they win. None of them HAS to lose out. (We might even NEED a San Diego win in the final week, as we’ll see later.)
The fantasy longshot
If all three wildcard rivals lose all remaining games, except for San Diego beating Kansas City, Miami and the Chargers will be the only 9-7 teams and we will win the first tiebreak (head-to-head record) due to last Sunday’s game. That’s nice, neat, simple, and almost too improbable to consider seriously. Nonetheless, it is accurate.
Fortunately, all that isn’t necessary. We can win a 9-7 wildcard in other ways. It just starts getting complicated.
Two-way ties: kid stuff
These are the easiest to figure out. If only two teams finish 9-7, the tiebreaks are straightforward. We lose to Kansas City (head-to-head loss), and we beat San Diego (head-to-head win).
Pittsburgh is slightly more complicated, but not much. The Steelers are 6-5 in the AFC with one conference game left (Cleveland). If Pittsburgh wins that game but no other, they will obviously finish 7-5 in the AFC, same as us. Since there is no Fins-Steelers head-to-head record, and since our AFC records would be tied, the next tiebreak is games against common opponents. This only applies if there are at least four games to compare. In this case, there are: we both will have played the Jets, Chargers, Browns and Titans. Miami will finish 3-2 against those teams, and Pittsburgh is now 3-1. Winning that remaining Cleveland game would make them 4-1, meaning that Pittsburgh wins the tiebreak.
However, if the Steelers’ only remaining win comes elsewhere (Detroit?), it’s a different story. They will finish 6-6 in the AFC, and we will win the tiebreak that way.
It’s worth noting that a straight-up, two-way tie with Pittsburgh isn’t possible, since KC or SD will get a ninth win. However, we still need to know what happens if Miami and Pittsburgh face off one-on-one, because of the mysterious procedures that may await us in ...
Three-way ties: Egad
Any confusion over our chances usually starts here. Ties among three or more teams are treated slightly differently, and odd things can happen. It is possible to lose a tiebreak to a team that you have beaten during the season, or to win one over a team that has beaten you. Not always, but sometimes. In fact, that could just possibly happen this year to Miami, in our favor.
One key point to remember in multiple-team ties is that as you run the tiebreak procedures, if only one team is eliminated by one of the steps, you start over from the beginning with the remaining teams. That’s why we need to know about Miami-Pittsburgh, even though they cannot be the only two 9-7 AFC teams. Got it? Good.
Since we already know the deal on any two-way ties, let’s look at three- or four-way ties.
KC or SD, but not both
If three or more teams are tied for a wildcard, and two (or more) are from one division, the first step is to eliminate all but one from that division. This has nothing to do with any of the other teams in the tiebreak. You apply the same division tiebreaks as you would to find out who wins it, except this time it’s for second place. When that’s done, you start the wildcard tiebreak from scratch, with the remaining teams.
So let’s say all four teams finish 9-7. The first step is to eliminate KC or SD with their usual division tiebreaks – head-to-head, division record, etc. Then, you start over with the remaining three teams. None of this matters unless BOTH KC and SD win one more game (and only one) to finish 9-7. But if that happens, and:
If the Chargers win the SD-KC game, they will have a 2-0 series sweep this season, and place second in the division. KC would be eliminated first and not figure into the wildcard tiebreak with Miami and/or Pittsburgh. This is a Good Thing, as we shall see.
If the Chiefs win the SD-KC game, the opposite is ... NOT necessarily true. It depends on which of their other two games the Chargers win. If they beat Denver, they win that first KC-SD tiebreak based on a better common games record. (Head-to-head would be split, and division records equal.) If the Chargers instead beat Indianapolis and lose to Denver (and KC), the Chargers would be eliminated first in that intra-division tiebreak with KC due to a worse division record.
This is what I meant by odd things happening in multiple-team ties. It is possible for KC to finish 9-7 along with Miami, SD and Pittsburgh, for KC also to hold the best AFC record (8-4) among all four, PLUS a victory over Miami, and still not win the wildcard. In fact, they could be the first team eliminated. Yes, seriously.
KC or SD? Chargers, please
Now that we’re clear about eliminating one of two teams from the same division first, it’s also clear that we are really only chasing two teams, not three, for the second wildcard: Pittsburgh, and KC or SD. A three-way tie with SD and KC, for example, isn’t really a three-way tie at all; one of those two eliminates the other while we wait on the sidelines, then it becomes a two-way tie. Or a four-way becomes a three-way.
It seems obvious that we want SD, not KC, to be the #2 team from their division. And in fact that is correct, but not entirely for the obvious reason (our head-to-head loss or win).
If Miami, Pittsburgh and KC vie for the wildcard (SD finishing 8-8, or having been the first eliminated, as above), the Chiefs’ win over us will not count. This is due to the “head-to-head sweep†rule. Head-to-head games among three teams ONLY count if one team has beaten BOTH the others (in which case it wins immediately), or has lost to both others (in which case it is eliminated immediately, and the other two start over).
The good news: Since KC didn’t play Pittsburgh this year, you can toss out their win over us, at least for the first tiebreak round in a three-way with us and Pitt. The bad news: KC is already 7-3 in the AFC, and beating SD would make them 8-4. Pittsburgh will be 6-6 or 7-5 (see above), and Miami will be 7-5. So, KC will win the tiebreak outright, with the best AFC record – not due to having beaten Miami, but that’s hardly any consolation.
However, even if KC beats SD but SD beats Denver, it’s the Chargers who take #2 in the division anyway (see above, again). This is much better. KC is out first, and in a three-way tiebreak among Miami, Pittsburgh and San Diego, the head-to-head sweep rule DOES apply, because Pittsburgh beat San Diego this season. Because of this, the Chargers get eliminated next, leaving Miami and Pittsburgh. That tiebreak goes as detailed above, and we win it – IF the Steelers lost to Cleveland.
Detail for the deranged
Feel free to skip this section. It’s for the really obsessive. It is impossible for the Chiefs to finish 9-7 and 7-5 in the AFC, and also eliminate the Chargers (if they too are 9-7) first. KC would have to beat the Giants but then lose its two remaining AFC games. But if that happened, it means that SD beat KC, and we already know that if SD wins that game, it’s the Chargers not the Chiefs who emerge as #2 in their division. (Reminder: this still assumes these teams finish 9-7.)
Why does this matter? Because it might have allowed the Steelers to beat the Browns without killing Miami’s chances. If Miami, Pittsburgh and KC were all 9-7 and 7-5 in the AFC, we might not face the potentially deadly second-round tie with Pittsburgh, which we can lose via common game record. Instead, the common-game tiebreak would apply to all three teams considered together, except in this case it wouldn’t, because the only common opponents all three teams faced were the Patriots and Chargers, and there are not four games to consider. Pittsburgh has only played two games against those teams, while Miami and KC will have played three. Then it would go to "strength of victory" and who knows what.
I must admit I’m unclear at this point on whether the minimum of four means four distinct opponents, or four games played by each tiebreak team against any common opponents, or four games total. The NFL rules, or at least the ones they have online, aren’t precise.
In any case, since it can’t come to that, it’s a moot point. I was just being thorough. But thanks for reading.
Must-win #1: Colts over Chargers
Of the eight remaining games for Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego, at this point only two are already absolutely, positively critical: Indianapolis must beat San Diego this week, and Cleveland must beat Pittsburgh next week.
The Colts-Chargers game surprised me. I originally calculated that SD and KC would both need to win (plus Jacksonville) for us to be eliminated from the wildcard, but follow this carefully:
First, assume San Diego wins Sunday. We know that they MUST lose their following two for Miami to have any chance. So OK, then they lose to the Chiefs – but that means KC will finish #2 in their division unless the Chargers beat Denver in the final week. From Miami’s perspective, that can’t happen: that makes the Chargers 10-6. But we can’t afford KC at #2 in the division either – they’ll win the tiebreak whether it’s with us alone, or with Pittsburgh.
So: If San Diego wins Sunday, they can neither win nor lose the following week without eliminating Miami in the process, either way. (Maybe if they tie ...? Naah.) Fortunately, San Diego faces a Colts team that’s on a bit of a roll lately.
It would also be helpful if San Diego, after losing, went on to beat Kansas City – but as we’ve seen, that isn’t absolutely necessary. If both lose this week, and KC beats SD next week, we could still be OK if SD beats Denver and KC loses to Cincinnati in the final week. (Remember, quite some time ago, I said we might NEED the Chargers to win one, rather than finishing 8-8? Well, here we are. That was easy, wasn’t it?)
Must-win #2: Browns over Steelers
Now, on to the Steelers-Browns next week, assuming we survive that long. If the Steelers had another remaining AFC game they could lose instead of this one, it wouldn’t matter. But they don’t, so it does.
If you want to hope that Pittsburgh loses out to finish 8-8 and not be involved in a tiebreak with us at all, that’s fine too, but one of those three losses will still have to be ... Cleveland.
Or maybe there’s a way for Pittsburgh to get eliminated FIRST in a three-way tiebreak? Good idea, but no, there isn’t. The third team – and there MUST be one – is either San Diego (which gets cut first) or Kansas City, which wins via AFC record no matter how you slice it (see the deranged detail, above).
Yes, most of the other six games these teams play need to go our way too, but Cleveland must beat Pittsburgh. There’s no way around it.
By next week, there could well be more games that MUST go a certain way for us, depending on what happens this week. Specifically, if KC wins this week, then SD MUST beat them next week and both MUST lose in the final week. But as of now, there’s a tiny bit of flexibility left.
A Jacksonville reminder
Don’t forget we have assumed, way back when and probably with good reason, that the Jags will put one of the wildcards out of reach for us, if not this week (San Fran) then next (Houston). If Jacksonville collapses in historic fashion, losing its final three to teams that are now a combined 7-32, they would finish 9-7. This probably would help us, but as we’ve seen, multi-team tiebreaks can get screwy. The whole process of which teams are eliminated, in what order, would change. If San Fran knocks off Jacksonville, we’ll try to calculate this next week. Maybe. Sheesh.
This weekend: Obvious choices
This almost goes without saying, but we would get off to a good start with the following three games:
Colts over Chargers: As noted, a must-win (unless the Jags lose out – maybe). If you can’t bring yourself to root for a team getting close to undefeated, console yourself with the knowledge that your rooting will have no effect whatsoever. Even with the lucky jersey on.
Giants over Chiefs: New York is at home, where they are 6-1 this year. Their only loss in Giants Stadium was to Minnesota, speaking of which ...
Vikings over Steelers: Minnesota has won six straight (yes, six), and they are a dome team playing at home against the more outdoorsy bunch from Pittsburgh. We already know the Steelers must lose to Cleveland, so if their second loss doesn’t happen here, first, that leaves only Detroit to do it – in Pittsburgh. Best not to rely on the Lions.
Beyond those, of course, Tampa needs to beat New England to keep our division chances alive.
And oh yeah, Miami needs to beat the Jets.
Check my work (and yours)
I’ve been as careful as I can be to check everything here. If you spot an error, we’ll all benefit by having it posted so we can correct things. So please check my work, if you’re so inclined – but check yours too, and don’t add to the confusion by posting a correction without explaining it. Y’know, like: “KC beat us so if they’re 9-7 we’re out. End of story.â€Â
End of story. Finally.
Update 12/14: Wildcard simplified (kinda)
There was another thread trying to boil down the wildcard, taking all three remaining weeks into account. That's a good idea, and I should have done that here, but this post was so long already, I didn't. Nothing has changed from what's above, but this is as simple as I can possibly make it and remain accurate. Besides winning out, for Miami to win the second wildcard, the following must happen:
Pittsburgh must lose to Cleveland and at least one other game.
Kansas City must lose at least twice.
San Diego must lose to Indianapolis and once more. However, if the Chargers lose their next two, they must beat Denver in week 17.
Disclaimer: If Jacksonville loses all three, the above might no longer be correct. I will figure that out next week, if the Jags lose Sunday.
Hope that helps.
Saturday evening update (12/17)
As we all know, New England has clinched the division.
If Kansas City had beaten the Giants today, Miami would have needed six out of seven games to go its way, plus its own. Since the Chiefs lost, the Dolphins are one small step closer to a wildcard. Besides winning out, Miami needs either four out of five, or five out of six games to go its way (depending on the Chiefs-Chargers result):
Pittsburgh must lose at least two, including one to Cleveland.
San Diego must lose to Indianapolis tomorrow. Assuming that happens...
If San Diego beats Kansas City next week, then the Chargers must lose in week 17 to Denver and it will not matter if the Chiefs win or lose their final game.
If Kansas City beats San Diego next week, then the Chargers must beat Denver in week 17 and the Chiefs must lose to Cincinnati.
The usual disclaimer: If Jacksonville loses out, there might be another way in.
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