zechs
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brilliant post..Tua has played well overall, few real stinkers really (and you can probably highlight OL woes in most of those). He's got talent, there's no denying that. But is he transcendent? Nope. IMO he's good enough to win some big games with a strong team around him, and that's fine...that's Tier 2 in the QB hierarchy...he'll generally do his job well. Its not really his fault his HC and GM are trash, and his owner is friggin' football-clueless. But it is what it is...QBs get the team's record attributed directly to them, for good and for bad. It's wrong IMO, but it's how it is.
But as a note on the analysis provided above, there's glazing in there without context. They talk about how his EPA against the Ravens and Bills were top 3 of all teams who played against them during that season. They made no mention of garbage time or airing it out to overcome a big deficit in the game, when we ALL know that's a thing and it applies. Its also relevant to look at other stats aside from EPA, for instance passing-yards-per-game-allowed for a defense.
Tua's yards against Buffalo as referenced above was top 3 EPA, but Buffalo was 24th in yards given up per game, through the air, a mere 30 yards-per-game from last place. And the 2023 Ravens? 31st in yards per game given up through the air. I don't consider any defense that ranks in the mid-20s to 30s in air YPG given up, elite, but that's just me. Additionally, points-per-game is worth a side consideration. The Ravens were 1 better, and the Bills were 1 worse, than the Dolphins defense in that stat...and in those those games mentioned as highlights for Tua that year, the Dolphins scored below those teams' average PPG against...even with Tua having a high EPA. They also scored below their own average in points, in those games...with all the extra yards included...by 9 and 10 points. I'm not trying to take anything away from him, but the results are the results.
Would all these EPA stats lead to the conclusion Tua was held back by the rest of the offense? I can see that argument. But at the end of the day, they flopped cold in both those games, both of which were crucial to their season and playoff expectations.
Like I've said tons of times...a healthy Tua is a very good QB. Top 10 QB IMO. When he's getting banged around and recovering from injuries, playing through dings, etc, he falls off noticeably, particularly in accuracy, and he can't survive without high level accuracy. And with his propensity to get dinged up or flat knocked out of games, he's not a franchise QB...IMO. Can't trust him, but he's our guy until he's not, so I'll pull for him to ball out every week, and pray he can remove the boneheaded plays from his book.
I will say thing I think thats missed is .. well people lump qbs into 1 basket. but its not that simple, I think it depends what sorta team you plan to build.
if your a run heavy team you aint taking joe burrow or tua.
that being said if your making a passin offense , well main focus on passing onllly qb i am takin over Tua is burrow (this is jsut on talent ofc)
but the main point i agree with is that last part, in end his talent to pass has never and will never be the issue (regardless of dumb takes people have to it)
his ablity to be clutch and extend plays is there.. we have seen it not an issue..
isssueeee is, which we never helped he gets a season ending injury just driving over a speed bump, his availability is the sole reason you cannot build a franchise around him.. its that simple, and for this reason when times right contract wise we need to move on